NFL Season Wins - Lines from a local

[TMoney33]

A local just offered me seasons wins totals on 5 teams. They are listed below vs their prices at some online books where I play.

Team	Local	Bovada	Heritage	Legends
BUF	o7.5 -110 u7.5 -110	o8 -155 u8 +125	o7.5 -225 u7.5 +185	o7.5 -230 u7.5 +170
DEN	o8.5 -110 u8.5 -110	o9 -120 u9 -110	o8.5 -160 u8.5 +140	o8.5 -170 u8.5 +130
IND	o5.5 -110 u5.5 -110	o5.5 +105 u5.5 -135	o5.5 +105 u5.5 -125	o5.5 +100 u5.5 -140
NOR	o9.5 -110 u9.5 -110	o10 +125 u10 -155	o10 +130 u10 -150	o10 +115 u10 -155
SD	o8.5 -110 u8.5 -110	o9 +110 u9 -140	o9 +130 u9 -150	o10 +100 u10 -140

So to me it appears that I'm getting incredible value on BUF o7.5, very good value on DEN o8.5, good value on NOR u9.5, and decent value on SD u8.5 and IND u5.5.

Aside from the value, I really like BUF o7.5 and SD u8.5. I was thinking about putting 10 units on BUF, 5 on DEN, 3 on SD, and 2 each on NOR and IND.

What do you guys think? How would you play these? Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

[easyliving]

pound the buffalo and throw in a couple units on the SD under as they are just a bad team. Don't touch the rest

[TMoney33]

I'm definitely hammering BUF. They've got a fairly soft schedule, were looking pretty good part of last year, and I expect them to have an improved D and run game this year.

I agree on SD. I could see them only winning 6 games this year.

DEN is difficult for me. With Manning at the helm anything could happen, but they have a pretty tough schedule. I could easily see them going under 8, yet the over is a favorite. I may just go with my gut here, and bet the under at +140 for 2 units.

NO is really difficult for me, because I personally see them 10 games or more. I'll probably just have to pass on this one.

IND offers some vale on the under, but I really don't know what to expect from them this year. It's really hard to take u5.5 on any team. I'm thinking I'll probably have to pass on this one too.

[TMoney33]

I gotta say, Fitzpatrick was looking scary vs PIT tonight. The D showing some promise, but not quite as good as I was expecting. I'm starting to doubt going so big on BUF right now.

[chopperocker]

BUF Ov7.5 pass on the rest.