LKid1's 2012/13 NFL/NCAA Thread

[Louisvillekid1]

I'm going to ease into the season playing only 0.25 unit plays week 1, 0.5 unit plays week 2, 0.75 unit plays week 3, building up to 1 unit plays starting in week 4. By that point I feel I have a much better feel on the teams and will bet accordingly. Also I will rarely ever bet more than 0.5 on a Prime time game... i will then digress down at the end of the season in similar fashion (but of course some situation's might arise making an exception)...

I have some early leans I'll post now, but of course Alot if going to change by then...

Dallas +3.5
Indy +11
Philly -9
Detroit -8.5
KC +1

I will continue to look at games and follow lines, but I will say that Dallas +3.5 and Philly -9 really stand out to me and this point.

Please post any thoughts throughout the season and lets make some $$$!

I will also post my NCAA plays in here as well, However would be rare to have a play the first week or 2 of the season and will be using similiar money management strategies...

Only Lean I saw in NCAA was Boston College @ Pk, but even more so then the NFL I need to get a better feel for these college kids...

Looking forward to Discussing plays with all of you, Also Check out the Money Line Parlay Thread and lets get your input on that as well...

[Louisvillekid1]

After thoroughly reviewing NCAAF's week 1 card, I've found 8 strong leans and will study these 8 plays more closely as well as viewing other posters write ups about their plays... These aren't official plays yet, but pretty close...

Dropped the ball waiting till this weekend to capp, so I won't beat some closing #'s week 1...

Eastern Michigan +3.5 *
Louisiana Tech +8
NC State +4
Ohio +6
Western Michigan +9.5 **
Boston College -1*
Clemson -3
Troy -5.5 *

I'll work on some write ups...

[Louisvillekid1]

+3.5 @

Thurs Aug 30, 7:00 PM Est

Ron English is entering his 4th season with the Eagles and has his best team yet, coming off a 6-6 year last year. They return 9 starters on Offense lead by SR QB Alex Gillett who attacks defense's through the air and on the ground, leading his team in Rushing last year.

They open their 2012 campaign against a familiar foe, in a MAC battle under the lights @ Ball St. The Cardinals beat the Eagles in last year's match up 33 - 31, as Ball st was favored by 2 and resulted in a push. The last 3 contests between these 2 have been decided by a total of 8 points, with the biggest margin of victory being 3 points.

I see these two teams going to opposite directions this season. The Cardinals defense is atrocious, both against the pass and the run. Look for E Mich to take advantage of this especially on the ground, setting up some big plays in the PA Attack, while controlling time of possession and taking away the home field edge.

I'll glady take the 3.5 in this opening conference matchup

137 Eastern Michigan +3.5, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

I also want to add that I cut my unit size into 1/4 for easier tracking and will still increase the plays leading up too week 4...

[Louisvillekid1]

@ +8

Thurs Aug 30, 7:30 PM Est

Here's a spot where I feel 8 points @ home is just too much to pass up. Kevin Sumlin takes over A&M and brings his Freshman QB on the road against a team that battled his Houston Cougars last season in defeat 35-34, but covering the 6 point spread... I just feel Sr QB Colby Cameron will be able to make enough big plays in this game to keep it close till the end. The Bulldogs are on the rise, and this just sets up the perfect spot for 3rd year coach Sonny Dykes to get an upset against a big name school, and best of all having the opportunity to do it on their home field.

140 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +8, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

@ +3.5
Friday Aug 31, 7:30 PM Est

This game is being played at the Georgia Dome, and It's going to be one of the more entertaining games on of the opening weekend. Derek Dooley's entering his 3rd season at the helm and will have his Volunteers improved from last season's 5-7 finish. However I really like this NC State team, Sr QB Mike Glennon is going to have a huge year and improve of last season's 8-5 record. They did take a hit losing WR Bryan Underwood, but with the experience offensive line giving Glennon plently of time to make good decisions and get the ball down the field. I just feel the wrong team is favored here and even though The Vols will have a good season, it might start slowly and I just see the Wolfpack opening up their 2012 season with a win against Tennessee. So of course the 3.5 is a gift...

152 North Carolina State +3.5, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

+6 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 PM Est

This is a game that I feel stupid playing because of the opening line being set @ 10.5, with that being said Im considering just stepping away from this one. Who knows is Penn St plays so hard to win back their fan base, I mean their is alot of ways Bill O'Brien has to motivate this team before their opener @ home. I look for the Penn St to really struggle this year but maybe they play their best game of the season here just because of that reason, or maybe they completely fall apart.

I really like this Ohio team and it's a great spot for them to get a win against a big name opponent, but Since the line has already dropped so much, I'm most likely staying away from this one...

No PLAY

[Louisvillekid1]

+9.5 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 Pm Est

Here's another situation where you have a first year coach in Tim Beckman, playing against a Gutty, experienced Western Mich group that always plays the Illini tough. The Broncos are lead by SR QB Alex Carder who went 30-48 for 306 last season again Illinois in a 23-20 defeat. I think It's a great spot for another upset here , Illinois lost their last 6 games last season while the Broncos won their last 4, and even though I missed out on the 11.5 opener, 9.5 is still too good to pass up, and I might consider even buying this to 10.

This is my favorite play on the week 1 card.

167 Western Michigan +9.5, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

@ -1
Saturday Sept 1, 3:30 PM Est

Here's just another one that jumped off the page right away. BC is returning 17, yes that's right 17 starters, now granted they only went 4-8 last year, but they did beat these hurricanes to end their season @ Miami last year. Miami is in a rebuilding year and having dealt with all their recent off the field troubles, I see this spot as a great chance for the Golden Eagles to opener their 2012 campaign with a Home Win.

176 Boston College -1, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

-3 vs
Saturday Sept 1, 7:00 Pm Est

Now the lost of sophomore standout Sammy Watkins is going to hurt, but Clemson should still have enough to win the battle of the tigers. Tajh Boyd and company should have a great season and even though Auburn will improve as well of the course of the year, the Clemson Tigers are more game ready and they will beat Auburn to open their season.

189 Clemson Tigers -3, 1 unit

[Louisvillekid1]

-5.5 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 Pm Est

Deciding to stay away from this lean as well

No Play

[Louisvillekid1]

Lkid1's Week 1 plays, w/ Write-ups

My thread is in NFL forum, waiting for it to be linked here as well...

anyways in case they don't...

+3.5 @

Thurs Aug 30, 7:00 PM Est

Ron English is entering his 4th season with the Eagles and has his best team yet, coming off a 6-6 year last year. They return 9 starters on Offense lead by SR QB Alex Gillett who attacks defense's through the air and on the ground, leading his team in Rushing last year.

They open their 2012 campaign against a familiar foe, in a MAC battle under the lights @ Ball St. The Cardinals beat the Eagles in last year's match up 33 - 31, as Ball st was favored by 2 and resulted in a push. The last 3 contests between these 2 have been decided by a total of 8 points, with the biggest margin of victory being 3 points.

I see these two teams going to opposite directions this season. The Cardinals defense is atrocious, both against the pass and the run. Look for E Mich to take advantage of this especially on the ground, setting up some big plays in the PA Attack, while controlling time of possession and taking away the home field edge.

I'll glady take the 3.5 in this opening conference matchup

137 Eastern Michigan +3.5, 1 unit

@ +8

Thurs Aug 30, 7:30 PM Est

Here's a spot where I feel 8 points @ home is just too much to pass up. Kevin Sumlin takes over A&M and brings his Freshman QB on the road against a team that battled his Houston Cougars last season in defeat 35-34, but covering the 6 point spread... I just feel Sr QB Colby Cameron will be able to make enough big plays in this game to keep it close till the end. The Bulldogs are on the rise, and this just sets up the perfect spot for 3rd year coach Sonny Dykes to get an upset against a big name school, and best of all having the opportunity to do it on their home field.

140 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +8, 1 unit

@ +3.5
Friday Aug 31, 7:30 PM Est

This game is being played at the Georgia Dome, and It's going to be one of the more entertaining games on of the opening weekend. Derek Dooley's entering his 3rd season at the helm and will have his Volunteers improved from last season's 5-7 finish. However I really like this NC State team, Sr QB Mike Glennon is going to have a huge year and improve of last season's 8-5 record. They did take a hit losing WR Bryan Underwood, but with the experience offensive line giving Glennon plently of time to make good decisions and get the ball down the field. I just feel the wrong team is favored here and even though The Vols will have a good season, it might start slowly and I just see the Wolfpack opening up their 2012 season with a win against Tennessee. So of course the 3.5 is a gift...

152 North Carolina State +3.5, 1 unit

+6 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 PM Est

This is a game that I feel stupid playing because of the opening line being set @ 10.5, with that being said Im considering just stepping away from this one. Who knows is Penn St plays so hard to win back their fan base, I mean their is alot of ways Bill O'Brien has to motivate this team before their opener @ home. I look for the Penn St to really struggle this year but maybe they play their best game of the season here just because of that reason, or maybe they completely fall apart.

I really like this Ohio team and it's a great spot for them to get a win against a big name opponent, but Since the line has already dropped so much, I'm most likely staying away from this one...

No PLAY

+9.5 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 Pm Est

Here's another situation where you have a first year coach in Tim Beckman, playing against a Gutty, experienced Western Mich group that always plays the Illini tough. The Broncos are lead by SR QB Alex Carder who went 30-48 for 306 last season again Illinois in a 23-20 defeat. I think It's a great spot for another upset here , Illinois lost their last 6 games last season while the Broncos won their last 4, and even though I missed out on the 11.5 opener, 9.5 is still too good to pass up, and I might consider even buying this to 10.

This is my favorite play on the week 1 card.

167 Western Michigan +9.5, 1 unit

@ -1
Saturday Sept 1, 3:30 PM Est

Here's just another one that jumped off the page right away. BC is returning 17, yes that's right 17 starters, now granted they only went 4-8 last year, but they did beat these hurricanes to end their season @ Miami last year. Miami is in a rebuilding year and having dealt with all their recent off the field troubles, I see this spot as a great chance for the Golden Eagles to opener their 2012 campaign with a Home Win.

176 Boston College -1, 1 unit

-3 vs
Saturday Sept 1, 7:00 Pm Est

Now the lost of sophomore standout Sammy Watkins is going to hurt, but Clemson should still have enough to win the battle of the tigers. Tajh Boyd and company should have a great season and even though Auburn will improve as well of the course of the year, the Clemson Tigers are more game ready and they will beat Auburn to open their season.

189 Clemson Tigers -3, 1 unit

-5.5 @
Saturday Sept 1, 12:00 Pm Est

Deciding to stay away from this lean as well

No Play

[ConferenceChalk]

Good luck, I really like the La Tech pick as well.

PSU-Ohio feels like those March Madness 1st round games between a 3-14 or 4-13 where the spread is only 4 or so and everyone's calling for the upset only to have to better team win with ease. I'm not going to be betting penn state much this year but I agree we might see their best game of the season and trust me, those players are gonna know the spread.

[Louisvillekid1]

Let's cash that la tech play, good luck...

Looking forward too seeing your card...

[Louisvillekid1]

NFL Plays, will try and work on some write ups...

1 unit each...

Buffalo +3.5
KC +1
Pitt -1

[Easy-Rider 66]

NFL Plays, will try and work on some write ups...

1 unit each...

Buffalo +3.5
KC +1
Pitt -1

Like all 3 plays at this time. Buffalo down to +3 at 5D, but I would take them over a struggling NJY offense. I lean toward Pitt, as Manning will see his first action in 1.5 years. Think ATL is overrated, especially on the road. However, NFL just suspended Tamba Hall(Chief LB) for the opener.

[Louisvillekid1]

Like all 3 plays at this time. Buffalo down to +3 at 5D, but I would take them over a struggling NJY offense. I lean toward Pitt, as Manning will see his first action in 1.5 years. Think ATL is overrated, especially on the road. However, NFL just suspended Tamba Hall(Chief LB) for the opener.

YEah i heard about that, even still Falcons struggle on road and Arrowhead is the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. KC got healthy and they should be able to get this win.

[paranoyd androyd]

gl lkid

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks buddy

[Greg2011]

Thanks for the write ups

[Louisvillekid1]

NFL Plays, will try and work on some write ups...

1 unit each...

Buffalo +3.5
KC +1
Pitt -1

These plays are really very simple and stand out to me.

Who knows what's going on with the jets this year, and the Bills should be much improved. Give me +3.5 in this conference battle any day.

Falcons always seem to struggle on the road, KC has the toughest home field advantage in the league and are finally healthy. I'll roll with the home team in this spot.

Pittsburgh is proven and Denver starting over, Manning might need a few games and this is a very tough first game back even for #18...

Not really too much else to say about these games...

Heavy lean on Dallas +3.5 as well, but something feels wrong, still debating on this one...

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks for the write ups

Good luck this season and looking forward to discussing future plays...

[TPowell]

be careful, Ball State is the right side. eastern Michigan has a horrible defense as well. By betting EMU, you are essentially saying that they are straight up better than Ball State is. I like Ball state here, I think it should be lined around a touchdown

[ebbearsfb1]

be careful, Ball State is the right side. eastern Michigan has a horrible defense as well. By betting EMU, you are essentially saying that they are straight up better than Ball State is. I like Ball state here, I think it should be lined around a touchdown

They had one of the better defense in the mac, only allowed 350 yard a game. They do have seven new guys on d.. but the offense should be able to run and control clock.. should be a close game.. its one of my leans, not sure if I'm playing it yet

[ConferenceChalk]

They had one of the better defense in the mac, only allowed 350 yard a game. They do have seven new guys on d.. but the offense should be able to run and control clock.. should be a close game.. its one of my leans, not sure if I'm playing it yet

I would probably side with Ball State on this too (i feel like Pete Lembo is an up and comer, which may/may not be warranted) but definitely not a game I'll have skin in. so don't let me talk you out of it

[ebbearsfb1]

Not really sure one way or the other.. english is also a solid coach... have a few other plays I like more Thursday night... trying not to force plays... if this game was on Saturday it would be a no play, so shouldn't change cause its on thursday

I would probably side with Ball State on this too (i feel like Pete Lembo is an up and comer, which may/may not be warranted) but definitely not a game I'll have skin in. so don't let me talk you out of it

[redrum]

the u offense will suprise

[Louisvillekid1]

Strong Lean on Bears/Colts O 41.5

Bears offense is going to be very good this year and their defense doesn't look good at all. Gotta figure Luck throws a pick 6 or atleast a turnover that gives the bears an easy score. Also Luck should hit some big plays in the passing game, going against the before mentioned bears defense.

My Plays will be locked in Friday, and any opinions/discussions are welcomed!

[paranoyd androyd]

with you on la tech and clemson
still considering ncsu
gl

[Louisvillekid1]

Ok Boys, Just Posted up @ Heritage

Final Card, Locked in for Week 1

All plays for 1 unit...

Thurs Aug 30

137 Eastern Michigan +3.5 (-108)
140 Louisiana Tech +7.5 (-108)

Friday Aug 31

152 North Carolina State +3.5 (-113)

Saturday Sept 1

167 Western Michigan +10 (-108)
178 Boston College -1 (-108)
189 Clemson -3 (-108)

Sunday Sept 2

212 Louisville -13.5 (-113)

Sunday Sept 9

453 Indianapolis/Chicago O 42 (-108)
457 Buffalo +3 (+102)
470 Kansas City +1 (-108)
477 Pittsburgh -1 (-108)

[Louisvillekid1]

Did this just for fun, normally I'll throw $5 bucks on a parlay that hits if somehow you sweep the board... I mean we all have undefeated weeks and normally If I hit one a year its a profit... Of course it's not normally 11 plays...

47107074-1

8/23/2012 11:57AM

Parlay

5.00

6,034.57

Football - 453 Indianapolis Colts/Chicago Bears over 42 -110 for Game Football - 457 Buffalo Bills +3 +100 for Game Football - 470 Kansas City Chiefs +1 -110 for Game Football - 477 Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 for Game Football - 137 Eastern Michigan +3½ -110 for Game Football - 140 Louisiana Tech +7½ -110 for Game Football - 152 NC State +3½ -115 for Game Football - 167 Western Michigan +10 -110 for Game Football - 176 Boston College -1 -110 for Game Football - 189 Clemson -3 -115 for Game Football - 212 Louisville -13½ -115 for Game

[Louisvillekid1]

CAn't fukkin wait till thursday!...

[diveoregon]

@ +8

Thurs Aug 30, 7:30 PM Est

Here's a spot where I feel 8 points @ home is just too much to pass up. Kevin Sumlin takes over A&M and brings his Freshman QB on the road against a team that battled his Houston Cougars last season in defeat 35-34, but covering the 6 point spread... I just feel Sr QB Colby Cameron will be able to make enough big plays in this game to keep it close till the end. The Bulldogs are on the rise, and this just sets up the perfect spot for 3rd year coach Sonny Dykes to get an upset against a big name school, and best of all having the opportunity to do it on their home field.

140 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +8, 1 unit

The more I look at this the more I disagree. I was off this game all together, but now I see A+M -7', and I'm seriously considering if I can get it back at a TD.

First thought, Sumlin eeked one out last year with Houston, but is the head of a much larger animal this year.
Second, He brings in a highly recruited QB with a load of athletic ability, holds onto his top receiver, and an established rusher. On top of that he managed to keep Trey Williams, maybe the most exciting RB in this year's recruiting class, from defecting to Oregon.
Third, since neither return too many, A+M brings in 15 top100 recruits while LaTech brings in 0. Yep that's a goose egg.
Lastly, this is far from a home game for LaTech. Just 4 hours from College Station, you can bet this neutral site will bring Aggie fans 2-1 on Bulldog fans!

And if you want to talk history, A+M 10-0 vs LaTech with an avg cover of 30 pts.

[Louisvillekid1]

The more I look at this the more I disagree. I was off this game all together, but now I see A+M -7', and I'm seriously considering if I can get it back at a TD.

First thought, Sumlin eeked one out last year with Houston, but is the head of a much larger animal this year.
Second, He brings in a highly recruited QB with a load of athletic ability, holds onto his top receiver, and an established rusher. On top of that he managed to keep Trey Williams, maybe the most exciting RB in this year's recruiting class, from defecting to Oregon.
Third, since neither return too many, A+M brings in 15 top100 recruits while LaTech brings in 0. Yep that's a goose egg.
Lastly, this is far from a home game for LaTech. Just 4 hours from College Station, you can bet this neutral site will bring Aggie fans 2-1 on Bulldog fans!

And if you want to talk history, A+M 10-0 vs LaTech with an avg cover of 30 pts.

Thanks for the input, and I know SBR JOHN and many others' here agree with you...

Can't wait for thursday to find out!

[Louisvillekid1]

Gameday baby!