2012 NFL System - JM and Modified

[Kev the Brit]

The failed Eagles series means that the JM system has just lost approx 9 units (incl buying 2 half points). The system was in profit by 5 units before Week 12, so now its 4 units in the red with only 5 weeks left. Not good

[19th Hole]

The failed Eagles series means that the JM system has just lost approx 9 units (incl buying 2 half points). The system was in profit by 5 units before Week 12, so now its 4 units in the red with only 5 weeks left. Not good

No offense...But I cannot agree w/ any play on the Eagles w/o Vick.

[Want2Win]

Wasn't the Eagles a "C" bet as well?

[Kev the Brit]

No offense...But I cannot agree w/ any play on the Eagles w/o Vick.

Would you still take that position if they were +20 ATS without Vick? This system is not about about absolute performance (ie straight up win/loss). Its about handicapping. Sure enough, the spread was not big enough for the Eagles in recent weeks but, statistically speaking, the JM system is mostly successful even when key players are out.

[MARCUS]

.."mostly successful" ??...is why 98% lose,season after season..a little or a lot they lose.

[Kev the Brit]

Wasn't the Eagles a "C" bet as well?

Yes. That makes it a series failure. There is no D Bet.

[Want2Win]

Thanks Kev! I wonder if he will write now that it has one loss...He will come up with some factor I am sure.

[on3]

system record: 6-1
(A: 5-2, B: 1-1, C: 0-1)

mod system record: 5-1
(A: 3-3, B: 1-2, C: 1-1)

week 12 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(B) Oakland Raiders -1.5/ML vs Cleveland Browns for 2.1 units

week 13 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

green bay (MOD)
minnesota (MOD)
seattle (MOD)

week 14 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

ny jets
dallas
tennessee
buffalo
minnesota
seattle
new orleans
green bay
arizona
san diego

[cleonhr]

San Diego covered against Denver Broncos (23-30), handicap was +7,5

[jackoffalltrades]

I'm playing the Philadelphia D bet. Got Philly +10 (-105). At some point this season, they've got to beat the spread, right?

[Kev the Brit]

I'm playing the Philadelphia D bet. Got Philly +10 (-105). At some point this season, they've got to beat the spread, right?

Good luck with that

[GGPLAYER]

San Diego covered against Denver Broncos (23-30), handicap was +7,5

AND they should have covered last week........4th and 29?!?!?!? I can't let it go.

[on3]

i adjusted the post to reflect SD not being a play. they did cover the +7.5 against denver 2 weeks ago.

[cleonhr]

Whats the news on Oakland injuries? Is there any chance that could beat Cleveland? I mean, Browns a desperatly bad, but Oakland is also.... And btw Browns defeated Steelers last week, which easnt encouraging.....

[AceKingHigh]

It seems to me like there is a problem with your system and it's not valuable IMO, just from being 6-1 and 5-1 and from my perspective , looks like it's down 3Units...

two losses and 3 game chase = -$100 , -$200 , -$400 = -$700 / game * 2 losers = -$1400.
11 winners = $100*11 = $1,100

Equals -$300 and that's with taking into consideration that you didn't pay ANY juice to lay the plays... anyone see it differently?

[on3]

agreed. it is a losing system this year. but it is not my system, its a JM system and people have an interest in following/observing it.

[Kev the Brit]

agreed. it is a losing system this year. but it is not my system, its a JM system and people have an interest in following/observing it.

And, more importantly, this thread and those from previous years will provide the records for any future research.

Good work on3. Although the system might not have any value this year, your work is very valuable. Keep it up.

Kev

[19th Hole]

As an observer....I would like to thank you
for you consistent dilligence...

[jmaldonado]

on3, you mean Oakland vs. Cleveland is a week 13 play right, not week 12? we are entering week 13 now I believe

and week 13 = week 14 (potential plays)?
and week 14 = week 15 (potential plays)?

[hagball52]

Thanks Kev! I wonder if he will write now that it has one loss...He will come up with some factor I am sure.

For sure he will. I saw one of his marketing emails earlier and he claimed he went undefeated last season with only having to place one (C) bet. lol

[on3]

on3, you mean Oakland vs. Cleveland is a week 13 play right, not week 12? we are entering week 13 now I believe

and week 13 = week 14 (potential plays)?
and week 14 = week 15 (potential plays)?

yes.

[on3]

system record: 6-1
(A: 5-2, B: 1-1, C: 0-1)

mod system record: 5-1
(A: 3-3, B: 1-2, C: 1-1)

week 13 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS/lost 2 SU and 2 ATS (MOD)):

(B) Oakland Raiders -1.5/ML vs Cleveland Browns for 2.1 units

week 14 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS/lost 1 SU and 1 ATS (MOD)):

green bay (MOD)
minnesota (MOD)
seattle (MOD)

week 15 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

ny jets
dallas
tennessee
buffalo
minnesota
seattle
new orleans
green bay
arizona
san diego

[hagball52]

I know the system has its own rules but if anyone is handicapping the game (Oakland) they are starting their 3rd string qb tomorrow. Just fyi.

[GGPLAYER]

I know the system has its own rules but if anyone is handicapping the game (Oakland) they are starting their 3rd string qb tomorrow. Just fyi.

I would double check that. This is from RotoWorld

Carson Palmer was added to Thursday's injury report as limited
with a thumb injury.

Raiders OC Greg Knapp confirmed that Palmer is "definitely"
playing versus the Browns on Sunday. With the coaching staff now giving
consideration to playing time for Terrelle Pryor in a lost season, Palmer's
fantasy viability is on the wane. Nov 29 - 4:10 PM

[hagball52]

I would double check that. This is from RotoWorld

Carson Palmer was added to Thursday's injury report as limited
with a thumb injury.

Raiders OC Greg Knapp confirmed that Palmer is "definitely"
playing versus the Browns on Sunday. With the coaching staff now giving
consideration to playing time for Terrelle Pryor in a lost season, Palmer's
fantasy viability is on the wane. Nov 29 - 4:10 PM

Sorry about that, my bad. On Thursday the HC named Pryor as the starter but they must have changed their minds.

[jackoffalltrades]

Dodged a bullet with that last minute TD return by the Eagles. My D bet almost turned into an expensive E bet. After this Raiders series I'll probably forgo any further NFL bets.

[jackoffalltrades]

BTW put a got the Raiders for +10.5 (-110). Figured that is probably going to be as good as it gets.

[MARCUS]

morrisson sent me eagles A bet yesterday??

[Kev the Brit]

For some of us the Oakland series is over. At the kick off they were +3. Buying half a point, got the bet across the winning line. Not sure what JM wil post next week.....

[hagball52]

morrisson sent me eagles A bet yesterday??

Yeah it recycled into another series bet because once again they lost 3 su and ats.

[jackoffalltrades]

Looking forward to Thursday Night Football tonight. I work until 2am but DVRing the the game. Kids and wife will be asleep so it'll just be me and a couple of cold ones. Hope the Raiders have a respectable showing.

[MARCUS]

.....2 the simple things in life..and the raider$..enjoy jot.

[MARCUS]

However, home underdogs of eight or more are 14-2 ATS the last three years, 6-10 SU. The last four years are 31-12 ATS.

[on3]

There is a C bet on Oakland tonight for 4.3 units at +10.5

[hagball52]

I'm sure Morrison counted that Oakland series as a win because of the closing line. The rest of us will have to take the loss.