1st Q NFL Derivative

suicidekings · 07-22-12, 09:50 PM

Every team has their tendencies. Some are slow starters or don't have a ton of offense available. Some like to defer the kickoff to the 2H, reducing their average possesion time earlier in the game. Road teams from the west coast making the cross country trip and starting at 10am are also notorious slow starters. Same goes for short weeks, playing Thursday night games.

Not to mention that there's no incentive for a team to hurry a drive in the closing seconds of the 1Q or 3Q as the clock running out will not lead to a lost possession. The end of the quarter is a free timeout for whoever has possession.

slacker00 · 07-23-12, 05:04 AM

You must be talking about preseason lines. They take the starters out after the first quarter in preseason.

339955 · 07-24-12, 01:52 PM

is this "west coast making the cross country trip" based on your intuition? how many cents is it worth in a line?

339955 · 07-24-12, 02:33 PM

do the closing lines for 1stq-4thq and 1st half reflect who is receiving the kickoff??

339955 · 07-24-12, 02:33 PM

thanks so much

suicidekings · 07-24-12, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by 339955

is this "west coast making the cross country trip" based on your intuition? how many cents is it worth in a line?

You'll have to do the work yourself. Look at how the western teams do on early starts on the east coast. It's not a standalone reason to bet, but a factor to be aware of.

339955 · 07-26-12, 10:06 PM

okay thanks suicidekings. iam not sure how i can check this now as my database has team names and away/home but no locations so i guess i will have to give this some thought.

is coinflip information on who will be receiving the ball priced into the quarter lines?

339955 · 07-26-12, 10:45 PM

what is a site that offers scores quarter by quarter and the full game lines from like 2004-2007?