I've decided I'm making two GIANT parlays this week, for 6 units each:
a) Saints +3, Panthers -4.5, and Titans -4
b) Bills -1.5, 49ers -5, and Jets -13
2 units on the following parlay:
c)Texans -10, SF/SEA under 42, ARI/CAR over 43.5
Straight bets:
d) Titans -4 (for 6 units)
e) Panthers -4.5 (for 3 units)
f) Bills -1.5 (for 3 units)
g) 49ers -5 (for 3 units)
These are the only real plays I like this week (not the parlays, but the individual picks within each play). Here is the reasoning:
a) The Chargers blow! LT is looking worse every week, it seems, and their D is so weak. Put them on a trans-Atlantic flight and they're gonna be even worse. I know Bush won't be in the game, but the rest of that squad is pretty solid, Shockey and Colston should be alright, and Pierre Thomas should pick up the slack. And they get 3 points in this game, as well. The Chargers will somehow find a way to lose this one, too. This is no lock by any means, but I like my chances with NO +3.
At first I didn't want to play the Cards/Panthers game at all, but seeing the following two stats changed my mind: the Cards are 0-2 on the east coast, and the Panthers are 4-0 at home this year. Sure, Carolina got their azzes whooped by Tampa Bay, but aside from that they've shown up strong every week. I think the smart money says they'll win by at least 6.
I don't know where to begin with this game. Basically, here's what's gonna happen: The Colts won't be able to stop the run, and the undefeated Titans RUN all over them at home! I love Peyton, but his team sucks this year. This game is a LOCK! I don't know what happened during that Indy/Baltimore game, but if you look at everything else this team has done, the Colts are a joke! Titans win by double digit margin.
b) You got the darling Dolphins at home, plus points, can't miss, right? WRONG! Evans is back this year, the Dolphins offense was finally figured out this past week, and now they are gonna have to win games without relying on gadget plays and the Wildcat formation (which I'm just as sick of hearing about as Joe the Plumber). More food for thought: the Dolphins D let Joe Flacco throw for 232 yards and a TD this Sunday, completing 17 out of 23 attempts, and we all know that that Ravens passing attack isn't anything impressive. I have a feeling the Fins keep it respectable, but the Bills win by at least 3 or 4 points.
Yes, Seattle is that bad. Did anyone see their game against the Bucs this week? The only way they can cover this spread is if they apply enough pressure with their pass rush to rack up sacks and force some turnovers, to which San Fransisco is very vulnerable. That's the only way, though. The Seahawks offense is horrible. Hasselbeck is listed as questionable, which means there's about a 50/50 chance he'll start. It's a home game for the Niners, which always helps, and we should remember that they already beat Seattle on the road earlier this season, against a Hasselbeck-led Seahawks offense. I say they make it 2-0 on the season against this division rival, even if Hasselbeck suits up, and they do so by at least a touchdown.
The Jets are way overrated. I have thought this to be the case all season (I just wish I would've listened to my gut this past week and not take the Jets money line against Oakland). The good news is that the Chiefs are possibly the worst team in the league. Tyler Thigpen is starting at QB for the first time in his career, on the road, in a very hostile environment, assuming the Chiefs don't sign Culpepper or some other loser. Either way, there is no way this team wins. The only question is whether or not they can cover. 13 points is a ton in this league, but I think the Jets will be patient, and Favre's achilles heel (INT's) will be kept under control, and after 4 quarters, I see the Jets ahead by at least 3 TD's. The Chiefs blow. Yeah, they beat Denver, but that was at Arrowhead, and those KC-Denver games are always rowdy. You never know what's gonna happen there. You won't see any of those surprises against the Jets in New York.
The Texans are much better than their record indicates (obvious, I know). This week they're at home, against the Bengals. The Bengals suck! Palmer isn't playing again this week, and it's on Monday night. This is important because we have a big spread, but MNF quite often gives us very lopsided games. Yes, we saw the Texans allow the Lions back into it enough for a back-door cover, but I don't think we'll see that same thing two weeks in a row. And honestly, I think the Lions are a better team than the Bengals anyway. Don't bet the farm on it, but I like the Texans -10.
The over/under's I've picked are simple. I think the SF and Seattle offenses are weak and matched up against decent defenses, and I think the Arizona and Panthers offenses are pretty good definitely capable of putting up big numbers. These are purely just a "trust my gut instinct" kind of play. I guess sometimes you just wanna gamble, ya know?
Lemme know whatcha think!
a) Saints +3, Panthers -4.5, and Titans -4
b) Bills -1.5, 49ers -5, and Jets -13
2 units on the following parlay:
c)Texans -10, SF/SEA under 42, ARI/CAR over 43.5
Straight bets:
d) Titans -4 (for 6 units)
e) Panthers -4.5 (for 3 units)
f) Bills -1.5 (for 3 units)
g) 49ers -5 (for 3 units)
These are the only real plays I like this week (not the parlays, but the individual picks within each play). Here is the reasoning:
a) The Chargers blow! LT is looking worse every week, it seems, and their D is so weak. Put them on a trans-Atlantic flight and they're gonna be even worse. I know Bush won't be in the game, but the rest of that squad is pretty solid, Shockey and Colston should be alright, and Pierre Thomas should pick up the slack. And they get 3 points in this game, as well. The Chargers will somehow find a way to lose this one, too. This is no lock by any means, but I like my chances with NO +3.
At first I didn't want to play the Cards/Panthers game at all, but seeing the following two stats changed my mind: the Cards are 0-2 on the east coast, and the Panthers are 4-0 at home this year. Sure, Carolina got their azzes whooped by Tampa Bay, but aside from that they've shown up strong every week. I think the smart money says they'll win by at least 6.
I don't know where to begin with this game. Basically, here's what's gonna happen: The Colts won't be able to stop the run, and the undefeated Titans RUN all over them at home! I love Peyton, but his team sucks this year. This game is a LOCK! I don't know what happened during that Indy/Baltimore game, but if you look at everything else this team has done, the Colts are a joke! Titans win by double digit margin.
b) You got the darling Dolphins at home, plus points, can't miss, right? WRONG! Evans is back this year, the Dolphins offense was finally figured out this past week, and now they are gonna have to win games without relying on gadget plays and the Wildcat formation (which I'm just as sick of hearing about as Joe the Plumber). More food for thought: the Dolphins D let Joe Flacco throw for 232 yards and a TD this Sunday, completing 17 out of 23 attempts, and we all know that that Ravens passing attack isn't anything impressive. I have a feeling the Fins keep it respectable, but the Bills win by at least 3 or 4 points.
Yes, Seattle is that bad. Did anyone see their game against the Bucs this week? The only way they can cover this spread is if they apply enough pressure with their pass rush to rack up sacks and force some turnovers, to which San Fransisco is very vulnerable. That's the only way, though. The Seahawks offense is horrible. Hasselbeck is listed as questionable, which means there's about a 50/50 chance he'll start. It's a home game for the Niners, which always helps, and we should remember that they already beat Seattle on the road earlier this season, against a Hasselbeck-led Seahawks offense. I say they make it 2-0 on the season against this division rival, even if Hasselbeck suits up, and they do so by at least a touchdown.
The Jets are way overrated. I have thought this to be the case all season (I just wish I would've listened to my gut this past week and not take the Jets money line against Oakland). The good news is that the Chiefs are possibly the worst team in the league. Tyler Thigpen is starting at QB for the first time in his career, on the road, in a very hostile environment, assuming the Chiefs don't sign Culpepper or some other loser. Either way, there is no way this team wins. The only question is whether or not they can cover. 13 points is a ton in this league, but I think the Jets will be patient, and Favre's achilles heel (INT's) will be kept under control, and after 4 quarters, I see the Jets ahead by at least 3 TD's. The Chiefs blow. Yeah, they beat Denver, but that was at Arrowhead, and those KC-Denver games are always rowdy. You never know what's gonna happen there. You won't see any of those surprises against the Jets in New York.
The Texans are much better than their record indicates (obvious, I know). This week they're at home, against the Bengals. The Bengals suck! Palmer isn't playing again this week, and it's on Monday night. This is important because we have a big spread, but MNF quite often gives us very lopsided games. Yes, we saw the Texans allow the Lions back into it enough for a back-door cover, but I don't think we'll see that same thing two weeks in a row. And honestly, I think the Lions are a better team than the Bengals anyway. Don't bet the farm on it, but I like the Texans -10.
The over/under's I've picked are simple. I think the SF and Seattle offenses are weak and matched up against decent defenses, and I think the Arizona and Panthers offenses are pretty good definitely capable of putting up big numbers. These are purely just a "trust my gut instinct" kind of play. I guess sometimes you just wanna gamble, ya know?
Lemme know whatcha think!
