Robusts' Week 8 Leans

[Robust]

I did the math (started sunday night after losing) and came up with these picks..

I reveiwed my data from this past week and found out that after changing 6 picks, 5 came up crap.. so i am not doing that again.. these should be VERY strong, but of course, anything can happen during the week..

Ravens -7
Saints +3
Chiefs +13
Dolphins +1.5
Falcons +8.5
Cardinals +4.5
Lions +8
Steelers -2.5
Bengals +10 and Over 44

lotta dogs there.. and i still feel really good about them..

As always, let me know where i am messing up..

Robust

[Lout84]

Take the Jets -13 if Thigpen is the starting QB for the Chiefs this week. That team is the worst team I have seen.. possible worse than last years Dolphins.

[roasthawg]

I'm with you on the Saints, against you on the Cards. G/L

[Robust]

I'm with you on the Saints, against you on the Cards. G/L

I am 99% on that one bro.. they are comming off a bye.. look at past results this season..

Robust

[Robust]

Take the Jets -13 if Thigpen is the starting QB for the Chiefs this week. That team is the worst team I have seen.. possible worse than last years Dolphins.

I dunno really.. KC off a bye lost.. but against Tenn OFF A BYE as well.. and still scored 10 pts.. most teams get better after a bye.. maybe we didn't see it because they played a very good team???

And Jets just lost against oak with a 13pt score.. since it is early in the week, this seems to be a solid pick.. and double digit laydowns have burnt me all season.. so i am taking the points...

i will concede jets win.. but not by more than 13

Robust

[roasthawg]

I am 99% on that one bro.. they are comming off a bye.. look at past results this season..

Robust

My bets already in...I took Carolina -4.5. Not a fan of the Cards, especially on the east coast.

[Robust]

My bets already in...I took Carolina -4.5. Not a fan of the Cards, especially on the east coast.

alrighty bro.. but look at the picture.

Robust

[jagermeister1]

LOL... there's so much standard deviation there that I don't think you can really read much into those trend lines posted. I've decided that I'm staying away from this game. But if you can find some stats for this year, preferably ATS, for west coast teams traveling to east coast and playing, that would be useful. I know they haven't fared that well.

(There's a homework assignment for any of you that are feeling a little bored.)

I'm staying away from that London game. I feel like anything could happen, especially with all the injury questions on the Saints, e.g. Bush, Colston, Shockey, and the distance they're traveling to play, and you never know which Chargers team is gonna show up week to week.

But why Dolphins +1.5? I think the Bills look solid. The only team that sorted them out this year was the Cards, and that was a game in which Edwards got knocked out on the first series. I feel like the Fins gadget plays have yielded all they can, and now they're gonna have to win straight up, and I just don't see them doing that to a team like Buffalo.

But on the other hand, I have a feeling this is a trap line, like the Broncos and the Jets from this past week. What does everyone else think?

[Robust]

StDEV is a big factor here.. so i had to go with the "more reliable" team..

Ari - Car
Score margin StDev 17 - 22
Scoring StDev 8 - 11

Arizona is a more stable team in both..

I stand by my pick

oh.. and the london game.. who else to win, but the saints??? LOL

Robust

[jagermeister1]

you're right, the Chargers BLOW!!! put em on a plane across the country and across the Atlantic and they're gonna BLOW even worse!

But your other pick, I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I'm not betting it, b/c Carolina is 4-0 at home this year, and with the exception of the Bucs game, they've played really well all year. The Cards, on the other hand, are 0-2 when playing on the east coast this year, and Boldin, even though he might play, is not gonna be the same Boldin for the rest of this year. He just got a bunch of metal plates drilled into his dome, for ****'s sake! I'm staying away from this one.

[EastsidaProduct]

you got some winners, e.g. ravens (-7), dolphins (+1.5) and the over in the bengals game and quite possibly atlanta (+8.5).

[Robust]

If you have read my previous posts, you know i am on a quest for a 2k month that eluded me last month.. sooo.....

1) BET ID=259357222
Parlay (10 Teams) 10/21/08 13:06 ET
bet 10.00 to win 6,317.20 Result: Pending

Bengals(Cincinnati)
Texans(Houston) 10/26/08(16:10 ET)
Bengals(Cincinnati) +10 (-115)

Bengals(Cincinnati)
Texans(Houston) 10/26/08(16:10 ET)
Over 44

Bills(Buffalo)
Dolphins(Miami) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Dolphins(Miami) +1.5

Cardinals(Arizona)
Panthers(Carolina) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Cardinals(Arizona) +4.5

Chargers(SanDiego)(N)
Saints(NewOrleans)(N) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Saints(NewOrleans)(N) +3 (even)

Chiefs(KansasCity)
Jets(NewYork) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Chiefs(KansasCity) +13

Falcons(Atlanta)
Eagles(Philadelphia) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Falcons(Atlanta) +9 (-115)

Giants(NewYork)
Steelers(Pittsburgh) 10/26/08(16:20 ET)
Steelers(Pittsburgh) -2.5 (-115)

Raiders(Oakland)
Ravens(Baltimore) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Ravens(Baltimore) -6.5

Redskins(Washington)
Lions(Detroit) 10/26/08(13:05 ET)
Lions(Detroit) +7.5

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i'm riding it all the way to the bank (or the poor house)!!

LOL

10 bux for a shot at 6k is pretty good in my book.. read my signature if you don't know why

Robust

[Robust]

My bets already in...I took Carolina -4.5. Not a fan of the Cards, especially on the east coast.

reverse Line Movement on this game..

10/26/2008 ARIZONA CARDINALS 43.5 43.5*** 11% 73% 82%
13:00 EST CAROLINA PANTHERS -4.5 -4.0*** 89% 27% 18%

Arizona is looking REALLY GOOD!!

Robust

[Milkin' it Slowly]

Can Arizona play away from Glendale. They're playing the Panthers who are really tough at home. Car is 3-0-1 ATS at home.

[DeluxeLiner]

I like ALL of your picks, though I think I am not going to play all of them. We are both big on trying to understand line movement and be with the sharps. GL this week (well gl to us!)

[DeluxeLiner]

deleted:

[l7ustin]

NFL 6. NEW ORLEANS +3- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 19. TAMPA BAY o41- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 18. DALLAS -2- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 25. ST. LOUIS +8- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 28. NEW ENGLAND u43- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 29. ARIZONA +4- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 37. CLEVELAND +7- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:05:00 NFL 45. SEATTLE +6- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:15:00 NFL 49. CINCINNATI +9- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:05:00 NFL 54. TENNESSEE -4- 10 /27 /08 @ 17:35:00 Ticket: #46594299 Risking: $10 To Win: $6000

[ocho cinco]

alrighty bro.. but look at the picture.

Robust

you can shove those trends up ur azz after carolina rotates arizona tom. also playing the opposite side on miami and saints. lets see who gets screwed

[ocho cinco]

NFL 6. NEW ORLEANS +3- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 19. TAMPA BAY o41- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 18. DALLAS -2- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 25. ST. LOUIS +8- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 28. NEW ENGLAND u43- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 29. ARIZONA +4- 10 /26 /08 @ 10:00:00 NFL 37. CLEVELAND +7- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:05:00 NFL 45. SEATTLE +6- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:15:00 NFL 49. CINCINNATI +9- 10 /26 /08 @ 13:05:00 NFL 54. TENNESSEE -4- 10 /27 /08 @ 17:35:00 Ticket: #46594299 Risking: $10 To Win: $6000

lets say you win, won't you regret not betting more. 100$ to win 60 g's lol

[Robust]

you can shove those trends up ur azz after carolina rotates arizona tom. also playing the opposite side on miami and saints. lets see who gets screwed

not worth it..

Robust

[diogee]

Good luck Robust...loving the dog card (on them all except NO)

[babaoriley]

OUCH!!! why would you post something like that in my thread.. did i **** with you??

no!

so...

Take it in the ass (deep bitch) and i will be here when they win or COVER.. you piece of ****en shit... and if they don't.. no appologies.. your an asshole and you deserve to die in your own shit!!!

ASSHOLE!!!!!!!!!

Robust

Hey fella. You need a hug?

[DeluxeLiner]

you can shove those trends up ur azz after carolina rotates arizona tom. also playing the opposite side on miami and saints. lets see who gets screwed

Robust has been absolute bank. His style of capping implements a heavy emphasis on betting trends, and it has proven to be pretty successful. He may or may not win this weekend, because one can only assess in edge to be so high and variance does occur. I do believe that Robust is getting the best of it however.

[laxdjock]

alrighty bro.. but look at the picture.

Robust

LABELS!!!

[Robust]

Arizona Covered

Robust

[Robust]

Hey fella. You need a hug?

i did last night.. lol.. hopin' you're a lady, tho.. lol

Robust

[Robust]

Ravens -7 - win
Saints +3 - win
Chiefs +13 - win
Dolphins +1.5 - win
Falcons +8.5 - loss
Cardinals +4.5 - win
Lions +8 - Push
Steelers -2.5 - Loss
Bengals +10 and Over 44 - Both loss

5-4-1

not great, but i'll take it.

on to Monday

Robust