NFL Week 1 Early Leans and Explanations

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  • brucesmall
    SBR Sharp
    • 01-04-11
    • 384

    #1
    NFL Week 1 Early Leans and Explanations
    First game: Cleveland +7.5 vs. Eagles.

    Okay the Browns playing at home against the Eagles. I know that most people would think I'm crazy to say the Browns will win this outright, but I think the chances are higher than what most think. I see the Browns really pounding the ball and abusing the small box of the Eagles. I think that the Browns will use clock management and I think this goes down to he wire and whoever has the ball last will make or break the game. I'm going Browns +7.5

    Washington +10 vs. New Orleans

    To me way to many points for a team without a head coach, missing key defensive players, and of course the long drawn out contract negotiations. I see a Saints victory, but I think that the defense of Washington will keep this one closer than what most think. Washington +10

    Detroit -425 vs. Rams

    I would give the points away here, but with how the Lions go from kick ass to non-existent, I will play it safe and just make this a pick em... In what should be a dominant victory for the Lions. They have the offense, a defensive front that will put lots and lots of pressure on Bradford... I'm lovin me some Lions..

    Pittsburgh -105(hopefully gets higher on ml) vs. Denver Broncos

    Mannings first game in how long?? Not to mention he has to play in a elevated environment. Needless to say this isn't the greatest welcome back game Manning could get, he has to play a rough defense and I think that the Steelers will be focused as to set the pace for the season in a shaky AFC north division, outright win for the the Steelers.

    Last but certainly not least, the Cincinnati Bengals +6 vs. Baltimore Ravens.

    So I maybe biased here as I am a Cincy fan, but through following them for my life and this last off-season I feel really good about this match up.. Terrell Suggs is missing and that defensive secondary is not the greatest. I think that many people will not factor in the fact that Cincinnati will be getting a healthy Shipley back along with more of a two tight end system. The Bengals defense is revamped and will have another strong rotation up front. We may not win the game, but I look for a field goal to 4 point loss or vis versa, Hopefully a win


    Lets hear some feed back please
  • slacker00
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-06-05
    • 12262

    #2
    Good plays, I like the way you think.
    Comment
    • Nittany Lion
      SBR MVP
      • 09-14-10
      • 1639

      #3
      Browns suck, I could never trust them to cover. Eagles could easily blow out the Browns in the first game, Vick at 100% running up and down the field all day. Ravens at home against the Bengals on MNF? Ravens win....I guess Bengals could keep it close and cover the +6 but I would not bet on that, way too risky.
      Gotta go with teasers for the 1st week of NFL

      WagerType:4 team teaser
      Date: Team:
      Sep 09 NFL [455] PHILADELPHIA -2½-110 (B+6)
      Sep 09 NFL [460] NEW ORLEANS -3½-110 (B+6)
      Sep 09 NFL [468] DETROIT -3-110 (B+6)
      Sep 10 NFL [480] BALTIMORE PK-110 (B+6)
      Comment
      • easyliving
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-25-12
        • 8876

        #4
        Tennesse+7.5

        Really love the Titans at home against the Patriots. They might not win this one but they will surely keep it close. Tennesse is 1 of those teams that will surprise many this season. They definitely have postseason potential and even if they lose this one they wll surely keep it close.
        Comment
        • brucesmall
          SBR Sharp
          • 01-04-11
          • 384

          #5
          Originally posted by easyliving
          Tennesse+7.5

          Really love the Titans at home against the Patriots. They might not win this one but they will surely keep it close. Tennesse is 1 of those teams that will surprise many this season. They definitely have postseason potential and even if they lose this one they wll surely keep it close.

          I thought about this game and I think this line is right at where this game will be, too close for comfort, but good luck sir!!
          Comment
          • brucesmall
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-04-11
            • 384

            #6
            Originally posted by Nittany Lion
            Browns suck, I could never trust them to cover. Eagles could easily blow out the Browns in the first game, Vick at 100% running up and down the field all day. Ravens at home against the Bengals on MNF? Ravens win....I guess Bengals could keep it close and cover the +6 but I would not bet on that, way too risky.
            Gotta go with teasers for the 1st week of NFL

            WagerType:4 team teaser
            Date: Team:
            Sep 09 NFL [455] PHILADELPHIA -2½-110 (B+6)
            Sep 09 NFL [460] NEW ORLEANS -3½-110 (B+6)
            Sep 09 NFL [468] DETROIT -3-110 (B+6)
            Sep 10 NFL [480] BALTIMORE PK-110 (B+6)
            Playing it dangerous with that teaser, should take more points, I've learned that the hard way, but again good luck. The Browns are gonna make that game closer than whatcha think tho.
            Comment
            • LolsMcwinsey
              SBR MVP
              • 06-08-10
              • 2660

              #7
              Terrible bets
              Comment
              • El Nino
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 05-03-12
                • 18426

                #8
                Patriots are -6.5 everyone I'm seeing. Bad idea to fade Brady in week 1. Chris Johnson is a lazy POS that hasn't produced since he got paid. New England's DEF is the only question mark. I don't know if it can be any worse than last year. In contrast, their passing game is going to be seriously scary this year.
                Comment
                • brucesmall
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-04-11
                  • 384

                  #9
                  If your going to say my bets are terrible then explain your self!
                  Comment
                  • LolsMcwinsey
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-08-10
                    • 2660

                    #10
                    Ill be fading you bruce. Keep em coming
                    Comment
                    • dlunc3
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-31-09
                      • 9129

                      #11
                      sure im a homer, but no chance in hell the browns win that game....I really dont even see a way that they keep it with in 10 points...you reallly have faith in a rookie qb vs these philly ends? and have faith that a rookie rb in his first game is gonna run through a much better middle of the field for philly? fletcher cox, kendricks and demeco werent around last yr.. that changes the whole middle of the field... does it really matterr though? babin and cole will get enough pressure without even blitzing to cause weeden to be uncomfortable in his first nfl start.. nnamdi and drc wont need help on those garbage wrs in cleveland... so even if cleveland gets going with the run game, all philly needs to do is clog the box since cole babin nnamdi aand drc can basically shut down that passing game on there own..


                      how do you expect that cleveland offense to give up with the high powered philly offense?


                      idk man... yea im a homer... and normally i hate puting down a big bet early in the year... but getting the eaglles -7.5 is an absolute steal in a game they should run away with
                      Comment
                      • suicidekings
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-23-09
                        • 9962

                        #12
                        I played the Browns at +9. Solid opportunity, IMO, as they will be an interesting value team early in the year.

                        A -7.5 road fave in week 1 is NEVER a steal...
                        Comment
                        • dlunc3
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-31-09
                          • 9129

                          #13
                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                          I played the Browns at +9. Solid opportunity, IMO, as they will be an interesting value team early in the year.

                          A -7.5 road fave in week 1 is NEVER a steal...
                          it was the same situation last yr... philly played awful with all the new pieces and new coaching and still easily covered at stl... now they get to see a rookie qb... will be a deer in headlights
                          Comment
                          • dlunc3
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-31-09
                            • 9129

                            #14
                            why do you consider a bad team with bad offensive weapons with a rookie qb a value team?
                            Comment
                            • Redchevy
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-06-06
                              • 486

                              #15
                              This is just my opinion for the opening week but if NE comes out of pre-season unscathed and completely healthy on offense, I think they blow this Tenn. Team off the map. This particular game will possibly be my biggest bet ever, for the 1st game of the regular NFL season. NEs' run defense has made great stides with the new additions, CJ will go nowhere and Tenn. will never trade touchdowns with Brady. The word out of NEs' camp is that he and Loyd are chomping at the bit, never mind all the other obvious options available in this offense. This game has 45-10 written all over it, if # 12 is upright and all are healthy. I'm going to catch this NE Team early for some good money before we're seeing 15-24 point spreads, as in 2007. This years NE Team has the ability to eclipse the record breaking '07 squad. Again, this is just my opinion!! Good luck to all this year!!
                              Comment
                              • Redchevy
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 10-06-06
                                • 486

                                #16
                                PS, for all the above, bet the better Team opening week. Philly should roll as well!! Maybe it's just me but I have a problem laying hard earned cash on Teams that have shitty or unproven QBS.
                                Comment
                                • dlunc3
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-31-09
                                  • 9129

                                  #17
                                  redchevy.... we think alike... already going heavy on both those exact teams based on your same thoughts... bol
                                  Comment
                                  • Redchevy
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 10-06-06
                                    • 486

                                    #18
                                    dl, I like all the better QB driven Teams to roll in week 1 with softer than usual lines. Hit it hard before the books adjust. Good luck!!!
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by dlunc3
                                      why do you consider a bad team with bad offensive weapons with a rookie qb a value team?
                                      Even last season, the Browns were a better team than the Rams, and Weeden is an upgrade over McCoy, rookie or not. I don't know that your comparison is really a fair one. Take away the names, and ask yourself if you think a team that gets as much hype as the Eagles playing a team that gets no love from the public, like the Browns, is likely to have a point spread in Week 1 that's really a true line for the matchup? Or does that seem like a situation where the books would slant the line a little toward the more public team?

                                      Just because the Eagles covered a big spread on the road last year, they'll do it again this year? Maybe they will, but I don't think this matchup warrants a +9. That particular 2011 Eagles team promptly self-destructed after beating the Rams, so I'm not sure you can call anything they did last season predictive of this year.
                                      Comment
                                      • brucesmall
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 01-04-11
                                        • 384

                                        #20
                                        I'm just saying to say that the Eagles are a steal is a little absurd, the Browns play gritty and I think this is the perfect storm, certainly I feel like I'm fading the public tho lol
                                        Comment
                                        • greenhippo
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-15-12
                                          • 9091

                                          #21
                                          Sharp post Chevy. Pats/Bears/Texans all cover week one, and I think they do rather easily.
                                          Comment
                                          • GunShard
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 03-05-10
                                            • 10031

                                            #22
                                            I been to the Broncos training camp multiple times, Peyton looks like the same QB from seasons ago.
                                            Not only that, Thomas is the biggest target he ever had. Lots of TDs involving Thomas.

                                            Broncos ML for sure with home field advantage..
                                            Comment
                                            • brucesmall
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 01-04-11
                                              • 384

                                              #23
                                              I think that Manning will be ready, but most importantly, I think the Steelers are too much to handle with his looooonnnngggg lay off from the game, plus the Steelers have a good reason to win the first game lol
                                              Comment
                                              • BarkingToad
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-31-08
                                                • 5913

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by dlunc3
                                                it was the same situation last yr... philly played awful with all the new pieces and new coaching and still easily covered at stl... now they get to see a rookie qb... will be a deer in headlights
                                                Steven Jackson got hurt really early in the game, he had 2 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown, otherwise it may not have been an easy cover. Colt McCoy is a proven deer in the headlights, we don't know that about Weeden yet. My concern is why do the sportsbooks have the line so low from a teaser stand point? Find another team with Philly and that should be an easy teaser, right?
                                                Comment
                                                • brucesmall
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-04-11
                                                  • 384

                                                  #25
                                                  You never wanna tease to zero.... Tease it up
                                                  Comment
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