Why New England wins tonight

[Cheme82]

Denver has been struggling to put up points lately and on the road at KC they looked horrible. NE hasn't quite given up on the AFC East title yet and a win will put them just 1 game away from Buffalo (they still have to play Buffalo twice). Denver can lose today and they will still be on top of the AFC West since San Diego lost yesterday. So I think motivation will be a factor.

The other thing is Denver's defense. They are dead last in passing defense so I see Moss making a couple of big catches, and they are 25th. against the rush so Sammy Morris will have over 100 yds. today. NE defense is nothing to write home about but they are average against the pass which is Denver's bread and butter this season (they have gained about 2.5 yards passing for every rushing yard gained) so unless Cutler has a great day, Denver won't win tonight. Expect NE to control the clock rushing with Morris and some play action passes (a couple of big looks to Moss).

NE -2.5 (-120)

YTD
NFL
14-4-1 62.95
CFB
14-14 4.75

[Seattle Slew]

I like NE tonight as well. Pats usually bounce back after bad losses. Something about Denver I just don't like. The KC loss was a big red flag.

[darrell74]

What!!!

Denver lost to KC on the road.

Pats lost to Miami in their own yard

Sammy Morris is gonna run all over them?

Try Michael Pittman- over 100 yards, last week on a real defense. (J-Ville)

[WestsidePete]

I like NE tonight as well. Pats usually bounce back after bad losses. Something about Denver I just don't like. The KC loss was a big red flag.

You expect teams to lose road divisional games....but at home to Miami by 25?? that a bigger red flag then the KC loss....

[VegasDave]

Denver coming off of a loss at home last week and now with a chance to extend their lead in the AFC West after the Chargers lost this week... I really don't think the Patriots have a big motivational edge. "Denver can lose today and they will still be on top of the AFC West since San Diego lost yesterday." That is NOT how NFL teams think.

[ryanXL977]

Denver coming off of a loss at home last week and now with a chance to extend their lead in the AFC West after the Chargers lost this week... I really don't think the Patriots have a big motivational edge. "Denver can lose today and they will still be on top of the AFC West since San Diego lost yesterday." That is NOT how NFL teams think.

bingo
people crack me up, acting as if teams think like this. they try to outhink lines.

ALL TEAMS WANT TO WIN ALL GAMES

there is no such thing as extra motivation. new england sucks, so does den. but new eng sucks more

[aiyerrc]

are u involved with the NFL enough to know how they think? the pats also came off an embarassing loss last monday, and they are at home. with all the people saying cassel is horrible, why arent they taking the time to think why the pats are still -3? also, dont be a homer please. example. ur gamecocks on saturday.

[WestsidePete]

Denver coming off of a loss at home last week and now with a chance to extend their lead in the AFC West after the Chargers lost this week... I really don't think the Patriots have a big motivational edge. "Denver can lose today and they will still be on top of the AFC West since San Diego lost yesterday." That is NOT how NFL teams think.

Agree, besides with Brady out...every team knows this year is the best chance to take it to the Pats, there won't be one team that lets up this year vs them...

[Lout84]

NE struggles against the Broncos WITH TOM BRADY. They will lose this game by at least 7. They will be shredded tonight. Take Denver and the points!

[VegasDave]

Right, and don't get me wrong, I'm not super confident in the Broncos or anything... I just think cheme82's logic doesn't add up here. He sites two reasons;

1. Motivation - I pointed out why I believe this is a wash

2. Denver's dead last passing defense will get exploited - San Diego has the 2nd worst passing defense in the league and you saw how much it bothered them. This isn't Brady's Patriot team; this team is 24th in passing and you can't miraculously chalk yardage up for Moss because the pass defense is bad.

[ryanXL977]

if you are gonna bet this game, take the better team

and the better team is denver. only bc new england is awful.

hey guys, brady is out tonite, havent you heard

matt cassell is worse than me, almost

[Mic Lowrey]

you know i agree with a lot of what you guys are saying...but what really is making me confused is that the line has moved and taht its staying where it is.

Dont you think that maybe the line would move so the bookies wouldnt lose too much?

I kinda feel like this is what they want. Everyone loads up on Denver and then the patriots cover and bookies win big.

So im just gonna bet small on the pats and go against the public on this. Something isnt right with the pats being a 3pt favorite ....

[Cheme82]

Ok, let's see what happened last night.

1) I talked about how Denver has been struggling to put up points on the road.
They scored 7 points, their touchdown coming in the 4th. quarter when
they were down 34-0

2) I talked about motivation and how NE will be more fired up than Denver.
If you saw the game, no explanation needed.

3) I talked about how bad Denver's defense is.
They gave up 41 points and over 400 yds.

4) I talked about their pass defense being last in the league and how Moss will have
a couple of big catches.
He caught 5 passes (one for 27 yads.) and 2 TD's.

5) I talked about Denver's rush defense being 25th. in the country and how Sammy
Morris was going to rush for over 100 yds.
They gave up over 250yds. and Morris rushed for 138 yds. and a TD in the 2
quarters that he played (he had to leave just before halftime and never
returned due to an injured knee)

6) I talked about how NE's defense is not that good but they are average against
the pass which is Denver's main weapon.
They held Denver to less than 200 passing yards.

7) I talked about how Denver would need a great performance by Cutler to win the
game.
Cutler went 17 for 26 for 168 yds. with one TD and 2 INT

8) I talked about how NE would control the clock rushing with Morris.
Time of possession NE 33:57 DEN 26:03, Morris 138 yds. (in 2 quarters)

Now firts and foremost I would like to thank my bookie for supplementing my income on a weekly basis. On this particular game I would also like to thank the following people for making this win sweeter for me:

darrell74.
"What!!!
Denver lost to KC on the road.
Pats lost to Miami in their own yard
Sammy Morris is gonna run all over them?
Try Michael Pittman- over 100 yards, last week on a real defense. (J-Ville)"

M. Pittman 20 rushes for 88 yds., no TD's and a long rush of 13 yds. (4 qtrs)
S. Morris 16 rushes for 138 yds., 1 TD, and a long rush of 34 yds. (2 qtrs)

usckingsfan31
"Denver coming off of a loss at home last week and now with a chance to extend their lead in the AFC West after the Chargers lost this week... I really don't think the Patriots have a big motivational edge. "Denver can lose today and they will still be on top of the AFC West since San Diego lost yesterday." That is NOT how NFL teams think.

Well if 41-7 doesn't show a motivational edge, I don't know what does. I guess the way NFL teams think has changed since the last time you were on someone's staff.

ryanXL977
"bingo people crack me up, acting as if teams think like this. they try to outhink lines. ALL TEAMS WANT TO WIN ALL GAMES there is no such thing as extra motivation. new england sucks, so does den. but new eng sucks more"

So there is no such thing as extra motivation in NFL games huh? Did you watch the Cleveland vs. NYG game last Monday night? Were you watching yesterday? Do you still believe this? New Englands sucks more huh? 41-7!!!

WestsidePete
"Agree, besides with Brady out...every team knows this year is the best chance to take it to the Pats, there won't be one team that lets up this year vs them..."

Since you agree with usc, you can just read what I wrote for him, that's for you too.

Lout84
"NE struggles against the Broncos WITH TOM BRADY. They will lose this game by at least 7. They will be shredded tonight. Take Denver and the points!"

41-7!!!

usckingsfan31 (congratulations, you made it twice)
"I just think cheme82's logic doesn't add up here."

Does it add up now?

ryanXL977 (good job man, you made it in twice too)
"if you are gonna bet this game, take the better team
and the better team is denver. only bc new england is awful.
hey guys, brady is out tonite, havent you heard
matt cassell is worse than me, almost"

NE is awful huh? Denver is the better team huh? Matt Cassell is worse than you huh? he went 18 for 24 for 185 yds. 3TD's and no INT, you must be really good then. What happened, messed up your shoulder in college?

And for all the people that suffer from paranoia and are saying this game was fixed, just like the Cleveland vs NYG game a week ago, go and read this, the warning signs are there, I can just point them out but if you choose to keep losing money on this kind of games then that's on you.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/107947-browns-win-outright.html

Finally I would like to congratulate Seattle Slew, aiyerrc, and specially Mic Lowrey for being smart enough to realize this game was a trap.

You know if I had been wrong and the game had gone the other way I would have come back and admitted I was wrong, and that is what helps you learn. But like the majority of people on this site, all these people were quick to write all their dumb comments here but nobody has come back to admit they weren't even close and I was dead on.

It's ok, I didn't expect them too.

YTD
NFL
15-4-1 67.95
CFB
14-14 4.75