Im looking to go all in with my sportsbook account at 5dimes, I just keep breaking even all these Sundays and its pissing me off. I want to either win big or lose big...
Anyone got a solid play?
Anyone got a solid play?
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I see line movement in favor of the Pats
63% of public is in the Broncos and the line moved from +3.5 to +3
Anyone think the Pats is the right play here?Comment -
I got a small play on broncos right now but am waiting to see what others are doing before I bet anymore.Comment -
I'm leaning on teasing the over with the Broncos
Den +10.5/Over 42Comment -
I have a small play on the Under 48'. I'm hoping the clock is good to me for a change.Comment -
I put it on Denver to win at +150Comment -
I like denver +3 1st half (-125)
-broncos have lost 3 in a row to the halftime number. The spread is setup for the broncos to cover the first half. I would take the broncos ML at the half (+135). Books are being quite generous giving the broncos 3 points at the half.Comment -
Here is what i think of this game:
1) BET ID=259283116
Parlay (2 Teams) 10/20/08 06:17 ET
bet 14.00 to win 46.14 Result: Pending
Broncos(Denver)
Patriots(NewEngland) 10/20/08(20:40 ET)
Under 48.5
Broncos(Denver)
Patriots(NewEngland) 10/20/08(20:40 ET)
Broncos(Denver) +125
not too much money, but more than i usually bet
every stat i have says denver wins.. then there is the reverse line movement.. and the math also says that no matter what team wins, it will be under 48.5 (44 max)..
I think the Total is a ploy to get the public to drop money on it as they always go over on Monday night (and are usually right.. so they will do it again).. the math says the total is bloated..
good luck to all!
RobustComment -
i saw the math on the quarter scores, so i added one more..
1) BET ID=259283178
Parlay (2 Teams) 10/20/08 06:42 ET
bet 10.00 to win 26.00 Result: Pending
1Broncos 1stHalf
1Patriots 1stHalf 10/20/08(20:40 ET)
1Broncos +1.5
1Broncos 1stHalf
1Patriots 1stHalf 10/20/08(20:40 ET)
Over 24
denver scores 15.8 to NE 7.8 at the half (avgs) and score less in the 2nd (Den - 11.83 to NE - 10). NE has been held to 0 in 3 games, and den twice in the first Q. Den has scored no less than 1 td in the other 1stqs and NE 10 total for 2 games (7 and 3)..
WARNING: I am new to first half betting.. i could be way off.. lol
RobustComment -
Denver ML and over.Comment -
Take Denver
Still no respect for broncos, pats are getting worse and this game will be no different.Comment -
Take the points to help u sleep better
Denver +3Comment -
Over 48.5 is the play for monday night football.
I also took NE on the moneyline.Comment -
no way denver loses tonight NE has no Qb he flat out sucks .Comment -
You guys are giving the pats too much here, they were destroyed by a san diego team, they are not the same without Brady,
Denver is the playComment -
1st of all I'm a big Bronco fan and refuse to bet for or against them. What you are not looking at is the Broncos D could be the worst in the NFL. Yes Cutler and Marshall can put up points but the D can't stop anyone. Also Denver has no running game as S.Young & M.Pittman are garbage. Also Cutler's security blanket T.Scheffler is Questionable for the game. Remember they beat S.D. on a bogus ref call at home, beat N.O. b/c M.Gramatica shanked a game winning FG as time expiredat home, lost to KC (the worst team in the NFL) on the road, lost to Jax at home, and beat a good TB team at home and an awefull Oak team on the road. This is only their 3rd game away from Mile High and if not for a bit of fortune, could easily be 2-4. I think the Pats at home are the play but like I said, I don't bet on my favorite teams.Comment -
billy is the better coach. pats are at home. denver lost to a really bad k.c. on the road. pats are the pick here. den cant be trusted on the road.Comment -
billy the better coach?? he's lost 3 straight to shanahan even w/brady as qb, also lost by 20 to the horrible norv turner and the chargers last week so that means nothing here. pats also lost by 25 at home to the dolphins so the pats can be trusted at home? buy 1/2 pt and take the broncos +3.5.Comment -
Sooner Greg
The key is denver beat sd and kept the game close, Patriots were destroyed by sd. Also the defense isnt going to have to stop anything bc New england has no offense, It will be close in the first half but denver pulls away and ends up winning by sevenComment -
New England and Under tonight...If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
OVER OVER OVER, did I mention OVER!Comment -
any reason why u like the over strict?Comment -
think im going with the pats -3 i'll go against the public on this one.
Plus i dont think the pats are getting enough respect - yah they lost to san diego on the road, but SD also wanted payback.
Denver has a weak defense against the run - unlike the chargers.
Granted pat's dont have a running game, i think Bill found enough ways after last weeks game to throw short passes and slants to get his recievers the ball in open field. I think he's going to make passes that are equivalent to running the ball which should help them a lot to exploit the bronco's defense. Also, i think Wes Welker will have a big big big game as his kind of plays can cause havock on the bronco's.
But if the line starts to move , then i'll rethink my bet, but as of now i'm sticking with the pats -3Comment -
Broncos + the points or pass.Comment -
In my analysis of games it is based on a certain value, I can't really get into how I come up with that value because well its complicated and won't really make much sense (It has absolutely nothing to do with sports) Anyway when I come back with value, if it is over 10 it becomes a play, now these values are changing constantly up until gametime based on many different factors( this is why I rarely post games until an hour before gametime) well this over already has value of 52, this is huge, I know it will come down some before gametime but I do not see it dropping below 10 so that is why it is a play already. As for the side right now the Pats are a 13, but this could sway back and forth that is why I have not posted a side play yet.Comment -
denver is a 7 win team
they lost to sd. both these teams are utter crap
id take denver thoughComment -
I ended up taking DEN and the under on a tease play
DEN +10.5/under 56Comment -
if you play this game, it has to be den
new engl is horridComment -
NE wins easy here NE -3Comment -
grab your money and put it on Denver and the UnderComment -
Denver and the Under is the play tonight.Comment
