Pitt @ Cincy

Robust · 10-15-08, 08:22 PM

there is a mathematical possibility for Cin to win outright.. but highly unlikely.. to cover the chances are very good! the numbers almost always combine for the cover..

I am playing more reserved these days as i have not hit my 6+ team parlays, so pitts to win in one of them.. lol

but here is the math (in the attachment).. STDev on left is for scoring margin and stdev on right is for total points scored.. win/loss is avg points scored on wins and losses and scoring margins on those points.. look at it for a while, you will see what i mean..

will not post the graphs as i am trying them out and wanna see if a picture is better than numbers before i go public with them..

Robust

BadBeatBodog · 10-15-08, 08:37 PM

I only understand about half of it including pretty much none of the last column three columns. What does this say about the total, if anything?

Robust · 10-15-08, 08:46 PM

If Pit wins, they will probabbly do it by 24.25 pts with a standard deviation of 12.88. so the team total could be between 11.62 and 37.13.

This also means that Cinn loses with 14.67 (shown as 14.7, rounded up) with a standard deviation of 6.5 (very good deviation.. means the only deviate by around a touchdown... you can count on the to score consistently up to this point in the season). So, the scoring would lay between 8.17 and 21.17.

Now these are extremes of the scoring.. there is a 95% chance (or 99%.. forget) that the score will not be extreme.. but somewhere in the middle..

and midpoints are the averages (come back around in the math) 24-14/5, which covers..

Robust

BadBeatBodog · 10-15-08, 08:50 PM

The normal line at most places is 9.5 so that would make this a no play. A one point difference between your line and the spread constitutes a play?

Robust · 10-15-08, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by BadBeatBodog

The normal line at most places is 9.5 so that would make this a no play. A one point difference between your line and the spread constitutes a play?

9.5 spread = Pit to win (in parlay.. can play in teaser)
1 pt over posted spread in either direction = pit to win (better teaser play on either team that has the advantage)
1.5 in cin favor or Pit favor = Cin to cover or pit to cover

remember this is just math.. lol.. massive injuries on the Pit side, Cin blows out pitts (again, highly unlikely, but it IS the NFL.. lol)

Robust

Always Somethin' · 10-15-08, 09:12 PM

I'm not calling it a lock by any means I just really like Pitt in this game at -9.5. The Bengals don't have the tools to attack the Steelers weaknesses(Pitts awful offensive line but no pass rush by the Bengals). Ben had a week off to let some of the aches heal after having the crap beat out of him the few games before. If Palmer was playing I would like the Bengals at this line, but Fitz is awful.

ezeblazin · 10-16-08, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by Always Somethin'

I'm not calling it a lock by any means I just really like Pitt in this game at -9.5. The Bengals don't have the tools to attack the Steelers weaknesses(Pitts awful offensive line but no pass rush by the Bengals). Ben had a week off to let some of the aches heal after having the crap beat out of him the few games before. If Palmer was playing I would like the Bengals at this line, but Fitz is awful.

What he said