Hey everyone! Once again posting the write-ups from my newsletter... ask me if you want to sign up and you can get these emailed to you every Friday morning!
SUNDAY
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5)
Well I'm sold; Baltimore appears to be the real deal this year. And Joe Flacco is looking like a great fit. That said, Tennessee just might be the best team in the AFC this year. They can run the ball with finesse, they can run the ball with power, and they can defend against anyone. In what should be an intense defensive struggle, I'll take the undefeated Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5)
Okay, I'm very proud of myself for taking the Chiefs last week. Wish I'd have taken them straight up, too. Huge win against a very tough team in Denver. That is what happens when one team is riding too high and the other is riding too low. Now, this team goes on the road against a tough Carolina team and comes back down to earth. Damon Huard gives this team a much better chance to win (or, at least cover), but I still think the Chiefs fall hard after their big upset last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Before their bye week, I took Miami to cover against New England because I felt New England didn't have the passing game (Wow, never thought I'd type that!) to exploit the glaring weakness in Miami; their passing defense. San Diego, on the other hand, should have no trouble exploiting this weakness. Also worth noting is that San Diego's pass defense has also been pretty awful; but Pennington doesn't have the arm strength to exploit this. As such, I think this is a great spot for the Chargers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0)
For three straight weeks, Washington has defeated tough opponents; Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas, and yet they are still getting no respect. I could definitely see a letdown after the big upset last week. I could also see Philadelphia coming out with a big effort after last week's tough loss. But that said, I think Washington is very real, especially on defense. And you know how much I enjoy getting a lot of points in NFC East rivalry games; like it even more when they shouldn't be getting this many.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
Houston had a great game against Jacksonville last week, which you have to give them credit for. They do have some things going for them, and I do believe they are better then what they have shown in the early stages of the season. But I still don't think 3 points is nearly enough to consider them in this spot. Indy got off to a rocky start this season too, and with Tennessee running away with the division and Jacksonville finding their groove, this is not a game Indianapolis can afford to lose. They overcome their injury issues and get the key win here in Houston.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
To be honest, this is a bit of a faith pick. Seattle has serious issues, including the major injuries in their receiving core, but I still think they are a very good football team. Looking back, the loss at Buffalo wasn't as bad as it initially looked as they have shown to be a contender; and the San Francisco loss was the result of some really bad bounces. So I'm going on faith in my preseason assessment of this team that they can compete on any given week. The Giants needless to say are among the best in the NFC, but they haven't been completely overpowering this season, especially in the close one against Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I'll take my chances on Seattle making a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Green Bay is absolutely demolished by injuries right now. So much so that there will be some banged up guys in the game this week simply because they need to be. With Harris out and Woodson with a toe injury, this secondary is severely depleted. I can't bring myself to pick Atlanta to win as they haven't proven they can beat the big opponent yet, and Green Bay losing their third straight at home also seems iffy; but I do believe it will go down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5)
This spread really confuses me. So far this season Chicago has beaten the Colts, lost by a FG to Carolina on a late comeback, lost to Tampa Bay by a FG on a late comeback, and then beaten Philadelphia on a late stand. Now they play the 2nd worst team in the NFL (Congrats to St. Louis on #1) and are only giving up 3.5 points? As much as I want to take Detroit for how fishy this spread is, it might just be because people still think Detroit is better then they've looked so far and Chicago has kept every game close. Matt Forte is going to run all over this defense. I can't see too many scenarios in which Chicago does not win this game easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
This is such a tough pick, but I really have a ton of respect for Tampa Bay, especially on defense. They've topped Green Bay, Chicago, and Atlanta and came very close in the season opener to beating NO. The jury is out on Denver... they cruised through Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, but all of these teams have shown to be extremely vulnerable against the pass. They then lose to Kansas City. This is the toughest defense they have faced, and how they respond will tell us a lot about what this team is made of; but I for one am going with the Bucs. They have actually looked surprisingly good on offense, and Denver's defense is so awful, they should be able to score enough to win even if they can't shut Denver down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)
You have an undefeated team going up against a team that just got absolutely destroyed last week... and the team that got completely destroyed is the favorite. Doesn't that seem a little too suspicious to you? I still think Buffalo is the real deal (even if they only seem to play the 2nd half the last few games), and Arizona has certainly shown flaws in losing two straight. But none of that matters; betting Buffalo is clearly the bet the bookmakers want me to make, and I know better then to try and outsmart them, so Arizona it is; with confidence.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0)
Yes, New England lost to the Dolphins. Yes, they are no longer a superpower unbeatable dynasty. But they are still a good football team. They've also had a week off to go over what went wrong in the Dolphins game and how to prepare for the 49ers game. You can hate New England all you want, but they are a well coached football team that will still compete this year. They should pick up a win here against San Francisco; unless, of course, Frank Gore goes Ronnie Brown on them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5)
This is PRO football, and this is way too many points. Dallas will be hungry to win convincingly after last week's big upset, and they obviously have the talent to do so. But a winless Cincinnati is not just going to roll over, and with the return of Chris Henry they have an extra weapon to throw to. Don't get me wrong; Dallas should win this game, and they should win it big. But this is the NFL, and I don't give up 16.5 points to anyone, unless we are dealing with the 2007 Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
Pittsburgh's offense has been a major disappointment this year, and losing Rashard Mendenhall with Willie Parker already out is a devastating blow for a team that needs to establish the run to be successful. Jacksonville has been far from dominant this year, but they've got too much talent on defense and too good of a game-planning coach in Jack Del Rio for me to believe that they won't be able to completely shut down the Steelers' offense. It may be close for a while, but eventually Jones-Drew and Taylor will grind down the defense and win by 6 or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
MONDAY
Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Minnesota hasn't looked good this year, but their schedule has been absolutely brutal. @Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, @Tennessee. Damn. Not that New Orleans is much easier, but they've got injury issues and a defense that shouldn't be able to stop Peterson and Taylor. Given the chance to set the tone with their running game, I think Minnesota can keep New Orleans' high octane offense off the field and control the clock. Also factor in the fact that Minnesota lost a game on Monday night already this year, and they will play even harder to prevent themselves from being embarrassed twice on the grand stage. Their season also hangs in the balance at 1 - 3. Just too many motivational factors working in Minnesota's favor this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
Good luck!
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 7 - 6 - 0 (.538)
Without the spread: 8 - 5 - 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 2 - 0 (.333)
Season
With the spread: 30 - 29 - 1 (.508)
Without the spread: 35 - 25 - 0 (.583)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 - 1 - 0 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 5 - 13 - 0 (.278)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Last Week
With the spread: 7 - 6 - 0 (.538)
Without the spread: 8 - 5 - 0 (.615)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
**Outright Upsets**: 1 - 2 - 0 (.333)
Season
With the spread: 30 - 29 - 1 (.508)
Without the spread: 35 - 25 - 0 (.583)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 4 - 1 - 0 (.800)
**Outright Upsets**: 5 - 13 - 0 (.278)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
SUNDAY
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Baltimore (+2.5)
Well I'm sold; Baltimore appears to be the real deal this year. And Joe Flacco is looking like a great fit. That said, Tennessee just might be the best team in the AFC this year. They can run the ball with finesse, they can run the ball with power, and they can defend against anyone. In what should be an intense defensive struggle, I'll take the undefeated Titans.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina (-9.5)
Okay, I'm very proud of myself for taking the Chiefs last week. Wish I'd have taken them straight up, too. Huge win against a very tough team in Denver. That is what happens when one team is riding too high and the other is riding too low. Now, this team goes on the road against a tough Carolina team and comes back down to earth. Damon Huard gives this team a much better chance to win (or, at least cover), but I still think the Chiefs fall hard after their big upset last week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
San Diego (-6.0) @ Miami (+6.0)
Before their bye week, I took Miami to cover against New England because I felt New England didn't have the passing game (Wow, never thought I'd type that!) to exploit the glaring weakness in Miami; their passing defense. San Diego, on the other hand, should have no trouble exploiting this weakness. Also worth noting is that San Diego's pass defense has also been pretty awful; but Pennington doesn't have the arm strength to exploit this. As such, I think this is a great spot for the Chargers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Diego
Washington (+6.0) @ Philadelphia (-6.0)
For three straight weeks, Washington has defeated tough opponents; Arizona, New Orleans, and Dallas, and yet they are still getting no respect. I could definitely see a letdown after the big upset last week. I could also see Philadelphia coming out with a big effort after last week's tough loss. But that said, I think Washington is very real, especially on defense. And you know how much I enjoy getting a lot of points in NFC East rivalry games; like it even more when they shouldn't be getting this many.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Indianapolis (-3.0) @ Houston (+3.0)
Houston had a great game against Jacksonville last week, which you have to give them credit for. They do have some things going for them, and I do believe they are better then what they have shown in the early stages of the season. But I still don't think 3 points is nearly enough to consider them in this spot. Indy got off to a rocky start this season too, and with Tennessee running away with the division and Jacksonville finding their groove, this is not a game Indianapolis can afford to lose. They overcome their injury issues and get the key win here in Houston.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Indianapolis
Seattle (+7.0) @ New York Giants (-7.0)
To be honest, this is a bit of a faith pick. Seattle has serious issues, including the major injuries in their receiving core, but I still think they are a very good football team. Looking back, the loss at Buffalo wasn't as bad as it initially looked as they have shown to be a contender; and the San Francisco loss was the result of some really bad bounces. So I'm going on faith in my preseason assessment of this team that they can compete on any given week. The Giants needless to say are among the best in the NFC, but they haven't been completely overpowering this season, especially in the close one against Cincinnati a few weeks ago. I'll take my chances on Seattle making a game of it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Giants
Atlanta (+7.0) @ Green Bay (-7.0)
Green Bay is absolutely demolished by injuries right now. So much so that there will be some banged up guys in the game this week simply because they need to be. With Harris out and Woodson with a toe injury, this secondary is severely depleted. I can't bring myself to pick Atlanta to win as they haven't proven they can beat the big opponent yet, and Green Bay losing their third straight at home also seems iffy; but I do believe it will go down to the wire.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Green Bay
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit (+3.5)
This spread really confuses me. So far this season Chicago has beaten the Colts, lost by a FG to Carolina on a late comeback, lost to Tampa Bay by a FG on a late comeback, and then beaten Philadelphia on a late stand. Now they play the 2nd worst team in the NFL (Congrats to St. Louis on #1) and are only giving up 3.5 points? As much as I want to take Detroit for how fishy this spread is, it might just be because people still think Detroit is better then they've looked so far and Chicago has kept every game close. Matt Forte is going to run all over this defense. I can't see too many scenarios in which Chicago does not win this game easily.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
Tampa Bay (+3.0) @ Denver (-3.0)
This is such a tough pick, but I really have a ton of respect for Tampa Bay, especially on defense. They've topped Green Bay, Chicago, and Atlanta and came very close in the season opener to beating NO. The jury is out on Denver... they cruised through Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, but all of these teams have shown to be extremely vulnerable against the pass. They then lose to Kansas City. This is the toughest defense they have faced, and how they respond will tell us a lot about what this team is made of; but I for one am going with the Bucs. They have actually looked surprisingly good on offense, and Denver's defense is so awful, they should be able to score enough to win even if they can't shut Denver down.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
Buffalo (+1.0) @ Arizona (-1.0)
You have an undefeated team going up against a team that just got absolutely destroyed last week... and the team that got completely destroyed is the favorite. Doesn't that seem a little too suspicious to you? I still think Buffalo is the real deal (even if they only seem to play the 2nd half the last few games), and Arizona has certainly shown flaws in losing two straight. But none of that matters; betting Buffalo is clearly the bet the bookmakers want me to make, and I know better then to try and outsmart them, so Arizona it is; with confidence.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Arizona
New England (-3.0) @ San Francisco (+3.0)
Yes, New England lost to the Dolphins. Yes, they are no longer a superpower unbeatable dynasty. But they are still a good football team. They've also had a week off to go over what went wrong in the Dolphins game and how to prepare for the 49ers game. You can hate New England all you want, but they are a well coached football team that will still compete this year. They should pick up a win here against San Francisco; unless, of course, Frank Gore goes Ronnie Brown on them.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Cincinnati (+16.5) @ Dallas (-16.5)
This is PRO football, and this is way too many points. Dallas will be hungry to win convincingly after last week's big upset, and they obviously have the talent to do so. But a winless Cincinnati is not just going to roll over, and with the return of Chris Henry they have an extra weapon to throw to. Don't get me wrong; Dallas should win this game, and they should win it big. But this is the NFL, and I don't give up 16.5 points to anyone, unless we are dealing with the 2007 Patriots.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
Pittsburgh (+4.0) @ Jacksonville (-4.0)
Pittsburgh's offense has been a major disappointment this year, and losing Rashard Mendenhall with Willie Parker already out is a devastating blow for a team that needs to establish the run to be successful. Jacksonville has been far from dominant this year, but they've got too much talent on defense and too good of a game-planning coach in Jack Del Rio for me to believe that they won't be able to completely shut down the Steelers' offense. It may be close for a while, but eventually Jones-Drew and Taylor will grind down the defense and win by 6 or more.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
MONDAY
Minnesota (+3.0) @ New Orleans (-3.0)
Minnesota hasn't looked good this year, but their schedule has been absolutely brutal. @Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, @Tennessee. Damn. Not that New Orleans is much easier, but they've got injury issues and a defense that shouldn't be able to stop Peterson and Taylor. Given the chance to set the tone with their running game, I think Minnesota can keep New Orleans' high octane offense off the field and control the clock. Also factor in the fact that Minnesota lost a game on Monday night already this year, and they will play even harder to prevent themselves from being embarrassed twice on the grand stage. Their season also hangs in the balance at 1 - 3. Just too many motivational factors working in Minnesota's favor this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *^Minnesota
Good luck!
. Was also with you on the Jags last night, I gotta stay away from Pittsburgh I cant win with them or against them