NFL Best Bets: Week 5 (Sun October 5th, '08 and Mon October 6th, '08)

[Illusion]

Share your best bets for Week 5: Sunday and Monday.

All sides and totals will be graded using -110 unless otherwise indicated.

Parlays and teasers will not be reflected in the results.

Make sure you post a line for all bets and good luck!

[Red Man Spit]

5* Baltimore +3 -110 (BEST BET)

2* Arizona pk -110

1* Detroit +3' -110

[roasthawg]

SF +3
Miami +7

[EastsidaProduct]

you guys who posted above me...

...these are the same picks I have going on in my office pool.

_________________

[Red Man Spit]

...these are the same picks I have going on in my office pool.

_________________

I sure hope we do well then!

[alexda[]]

houston +3 3.3/3
eagles -5.5 3.3/3
seahawks +7.5 3.45/3
card -1 3.3/3

[jagermeister1]

houston +3 3.3/3
eagles -5.5 3.3/3
seahawks +7.5 3.45/3
card -1 3.3/3

LOL - I have the opposite on all these.

My picks:
Colts -3
Skins +5
Giants -9
Bills PK
Bears -3.5
Chargers -6.5
Ravens-Titans OVER 34

Can't miss on Colts coming off much needed rest. The bangs and bruises have given them problems from the start, and they're at home. I know the Texans played a great game this past week, but Peyton, and probably more importantly, the Colts D are gonna be charged up for this one.

I don't think the Skins will win, but I think they'll cover. But you never know... maybe they'll pull out another W. The Skins are solid.

Both teams coming off bye weeks, I got the Giants at +110, which adds a little extra value to this bet. I think the return of Engram and Branch (if either of them even play) will help the team, but it's gonna take a little time. They're gonna be a little rusty, and I see the Giants pass rush beating up Hasselbeck all afternoon. I think the Giants will cover this very large spread.

The direct snaps and whatever other gadget plays are not gonna work against the Chargers D... this one is money in the bank.

Also, I know the Bills are gonna be on the road, but the Cards just got rolled at home by a Jets team that is not nearly as good as Buffalo. The Bills are solid. Bet it.

The Titans offense is not the Steelers offense, i.e. they're gonna put up some points. And this past week showed us at the very least that Flacco is no chump. The Titans D is gonna show a lot more respect for the passing game, the Ravens will run the ball, and they're gonna move the ball. I still think the Ravens D is overrated. Yeah, I know they're 3-0 and they've looked pretty damn good at times, but they've been up against some pretty weak offenses (Browns, Bengals, and Steelers).

Last but not least, the Bears, coming in at 2-2, have played tough in every game. The two they lost were close, and all 4 of those games were against teams much better than the Lions. The Lions are 26th in the league in offensive YPG. They are 22nd in PPG. They are LAST in the league in yards allowed per game. And they are LAST in points allowed per game. Don't you think the Bears are more likely than not to win by more than just a field goal against a team like this?

If any of you have an alternate view on these picks, please share. We're not betting against each other (usually), so let's discuss and put together some winning picks this week.

[alexda[]]

u have picked every public play...surprised ur not on ne. im not saying u should cap based purely on fading the public but if i like a play and 70%+ of the public is against it...it makes me feel better about it. ive learned from various cappers that betting heavy favorites/road favorites can bite u in the ass in the long run. if u look at good cappers most dont seem to pick those plays too often. then again im a pretty shitty capper so maybe being against all my plays is a good thing for u. i guess we'll see on sunday night

[hakrjak]

SD -7 -110
Bills -1 -110
Denver -3 -120
Colts -4 -110

[jagermeister1]

u have picked every public play...surprised ur not on ne. im not saying u should cap based purely on fading the public but if i like a play and 70%+ of the public is against it...it makes me feel better about it. ive learned from various cappers that betting heavy favorites/road favorites can bite u in the ass in the long run. if u look at good cappers most dont seem to pick those plays too often. then again im a pretty shitty capper so maybe being against all my plays is a good thing for u. i guess we'll see on sunday night

with that rationale, you should just wait and see where the majority are laying their cash, then bet the opposite side, no?

[Deceptive]

a week of teams getting smacked in the face

it looked like a tough week but looking through the cracks of the line i really like three picks.

I see Philly just smacking Wash. in the face, philly played great last week without westbrook and i dont think washing is ready for a physical game, philly did not win but their toughness on the road against the bears looks good against what i feel is a soft wash. team.

I also like Tenn. allot They can control the ground game because i believe balt. and their defense is just a little bit overrated in saying i do not think they can as a defense take over games.

I also like Denver to just smack T.B. with their offense they may not be able to stop tampa but their is no way griese can keep up with cutler, grieses numbers are a aberration from his comeback win at chicago and denver is looking to bounce back at home

just my thoughts but i really like my chances

[ZBOIZ]

Denver-3
Philadelphia -6
New England -3

[alexda[]]

with that rationale, you should just wait and see where the majority are laying their cash, then bet the opposite side, no?

i try not to do just that. if i like a team and then the public is against that team..i feel better about it but i dont cap just based on that. also if wnning was as easy as playing every square play...vegas wouldnt still be around rite? but like i said im a shitty capper so im prob talking out of my ass

[alexda[]]

adding:

lions +3.5 3.45/3

[Italia_NYC]

Surprised no one is on Jacksonville this week. That's my fav pick of the week. The Steelers don't have 11 healthy starters to line up and play and word is they just signed Terry Bradshaw for backup purposes. They play one of the more physical teams in the league on a short week, the Jags should embarrass them at home.

[superquad07]

NFL Bets Bets; Week 5

Colts-3
Tenn -3
Bears-3
Skins +5

[RageWizard]

Sorry folks, I went 4-1 last week. I will try to give you all fadable picks this week.

Ten -3 4 Units
Buf +1 3 Units
Den -3 3 Units
Cin @ Dal Ovr 44 3 units
Jac -4 3 Units

YTD -12.7 Units

[cweh]

Hawks +7.5
Lions +3.5
Bronco -3
Pats -3
Cowboys -17
Houston/Colts over 47
Jax -4
Tenn -3

I have a feeling Lions will win the game SU.

[oakas]

Arizona -1
Denver -3

[slacker00]

Vikes +3 1/2
Pats -3
Bills +1

My next 3 non-plays are Texans +3, Giants -7 1/2, Skins +6. These are all close, but I'd need an extra point to make any of these a solid play.

[EastsidaProduct]

Come on Magic Eight Ball don't fail me now...

Indy. (-3)
Baltimore (+2.5)
Miami (+7)
Caroline (o. 38.5)
Washington (+6)
Chicago (-3)
Green Bay (o. 40.5)
NYG (-7)
Denver (-3)
San Francisco (+3)
Buffalo (+1)
Cincinnati (+17.5)
Jacksonville (o. 36)
New Orleans (-3)
______________________

NFL Record '08 40-20-1

[slacker00]

Vikes +3 1/2
Pats -3
Bills +1

My next 3 non-plays are Texans +3, Giants -7 1/2, Skins +6. These are all close, but I'd need an extra point to make any of these a solid play.

Adding Titans -2 1/2 -115, Giants -7

[MattE23]

IND -3 at HOU: The Texans have beaten the Colts ONCE, EVER. The Colts are off their bye week. They lose here, they go to 1-3 when the Titans could very well be going to 5-0. That spells big-time trouble. The Colts have yet to put it together this season, but this one's a lock.

ATL +3.5 at GB: Rodgers is a game-time call. If he plays, you can bet they'll be after him and hurry him into some bad throws. Michael Turner has been an every-other-week back so far, and he's due for another big game. The Pack gives up more than 150 yards a game on the ground and more than 5 yards per carry -- and A.J. Hawk has a bum groin. Love this one on a teaser, getting the birds all the way to +9.5, but I like this number very much as it is.

DEN -3 vs. TB: Please. Tampa is a fraud. No way Brian Griese gets it done in Mile High. Just asking the Broncos to win by a field goal after the egg they laid last week seems easy.

[roasthawg]

SF +3
Miami +7

Adding:
Atl +3.5
Cin/Dallas Under 45

[bort]

San Diego -6

[ryanXL977]

tampa+160 x 5
balti+120 x 3
buff +110 x 3


add pitt +230 x 4

[griffijf]

Packers (PK)
Washington +6.5
Tennessee -3
Indy -3
Bengals +17.5

All plays 2 units... good luck to everyone this week!

[raidersfan]

Colts -3 3 units
Broncos -3 3 Units
Titans -3 3 Units
Chargers -6.5 3 Units
Bears -3.5 3 Units

[ronniejamedio]

two teams I really like:


Pats -3: in reality they cant lose to two shi tty teams in a row. old billy will whip up to assure that does not happen.

Jags -4: pitt is all banged up. qb hurt, no rb, busted o-line. def looked shakey on monday. I like jags a lot here to get to big ben.

[LT Profits]

Ravens +120 ML (BetJamaica)
Dolphins +6 -103 (5 Dimes)
Eagles -6 -110 (WSEX)
Bears -3.5 +110 (BetJamaica)
Seahawks +7 -110 (WSEX)
Buccaneers +3.5 -104 (5 Dimes)
Bills +115 ML (5 Dimes)

[darrell74]

Giants -7
Why?
When is the last time the Seahawks did anything good in the eastern time zone?
Giants have had post-bye week issues for a very long time-BUT
Giants are 3-0- that's the big difference.
How does Seattle avoid not getting beat by the Giants by 21+ points?

[Checkerboard]

Pittsburgh/Jacksonville u 36.5 +100 (pinny)

Good luck everybody!

[SexyMit]

Ravens ML +120 10units
Texans ML +155 10units
Arizona -1 -110 10units
Cincy +17 -110 10units

[bosterosoy]

Tampa +3 x 1k
Tennessee -3 x 600
Washington +6 x 700

[PorkChop]

FOLKS,

DENVER DENVER DENVER!!!

I cant believe this spread. Denver is coming off an embarrassing loss at KC, going home to face the Tampa bay.
The broncos don't lose at home
Tampa Bay cant shoot it out with Denver.

Denver coming off a loss, Tampa coming off a win, this SCREAMS Denver! Huge!

(..and ex buccaneer Michael Pittman - goes off today)

Go big on the BRONCS!