looking for a play on tonites game
cant find much, all lines seem tight
1st Q total is 7 u-130
game total is 34 - pitt 20 balt 14
3 td's and 4 fg's or
4 td's and 2 fg's
basically 6 1/2 drives that score
balt avgs 22.5 ppg allows 10.0 ppg
pitt avgs 18.0 ppg allows 12.5 ppg
pitt 6 td's 4 fg's in 3 games-3.3 scoring drives per game
balt 6 td's 1 fg in 2 games-3.5 scoring drives per game(1 def TD)
balt allows 2 td's 2 fg's in 2 games-2 scoring drives per game
pitt allows 3 td's 5 fg's in 3 games-2.67 scoring drives p game
these are all bad offensive #'s and all the good defensive #'s
the play here is 1Q under 7
reasoning-doubt there will be 2 scoring drives in the 1Q.both defenses don't allow much
doubt there will be a td in the 1Q (each team only allows 1 td per game)
just 1 td in 1Q is a push
1 or 2 fg's in the 1Q is a win
1 td and another score in 1Q is a loss
could be no score in 1Q
pros-both teams should start conservatively. run the ball, few passes, time goes by, lots of defensive stops and punts
cons-pick 6, fumble lost, trick offensively play that works, or big kick return for a surprise score
really crunching too many #'s to find some edge for tonite
any thoughts on this play?
cant find much, all lines seem tight
1st Q total is 7 u-130
game total is 34 - pitt 20 balt 14
3 td's and 4 fg's or
4 td's and 2 fg's
basically 6 1/2 drives that score
balt avgs 22.5 ppg allows 10.0 ppg
pitt avgs 18.0 ppg allows 12.5 ppg
pitt 6 td's 4 fg's in 3 games-3.3 scoring drives per game
balt 6 td's 1 fg in 2 games-3.5 scoring drives per game(1 def TD)
balt allows 2 td's 2 fg's in 2 games-2 scoring drives per game
pitt allows 3 td's 5 fg's in 3 games-2.67 scoring drives p game
these are all bad offensive #'s and all the good defensive #'s
the play here is 1Q under 7
reasoning-doubt there will be 2 scoring drives in the 1Q.both defenses don't allow much
doubt there will be a td in the 1Q (each team only allows 1 td per game)
just 1 td in 1Q is a push
1 or 2 fg's in the 1Q is a win
1 td and another score in 1Q is a loss
could be no score in 1Q
pros-both teams should start conservatively. run the ball, few passes, time goes by, lots of defensive stops and punts
cons-pick 6, fumble lost, trick offensively play that works, or big kick return for a surprise score
really crunching too many #'s to find some edge for tonite
any thoughts on this play?