CFL Week 13

[dwaechte]

SIA opens up the action this week, and unlike the last two weeks I really like every line they're offering.

Plays for the week: Home in CAPS

1.65* CALGARY -11.5 over Toronto(-110)
1.65* Edmonton +3.5 over MONTREAL(-110)
1.65* Winnipeg -2 over HAMILTON(-110)
1.65* British Columbia +1 over SASKATCHEWAN(-110)

Write ups to come.

Updated YTD: 35-25, +12.67

[dwaechte]

Strangely enough, almost every total is dead on the number I had, except the BC/Sask where I’m leaning under but not enough to make it a play.

Toronto vs Calgary(-11.5)
It’s an interesting time of the year in the CFL. Every team has had plenty of time to round into shape and show us what they’re made of. Calgary the past 5 weeks have come together in a manner that shows they’re a serious Grey Cup contender. Despite playing some very good teams, they’ve had great results week-in week-out and have really come into their own on the defensive side of the ball, where they struggled earlier in the year.

Their number one asset on defense is their pass rush, as they like to mix it up with their talented linebackers and show the opposing QB something different on every play. This week in Toronto, new coach Don Mathews has decided to bench 2007 league MOP Kerry Joseph in favour of Cody Pickett, who I have very, very little faith in. He’s going to get pressured, as the Argos O-line is nothing special. Their run blocking is generally pretty terrible, and although their pass protection hasn’t been overly bad, it’s still mediocre at best, and only Joseph’s mobility kept him from getting sacked too often. Pickett is starting for the first time and likely won’t be able to read the defense well, meaning he’ll have to fall back on playmaking ability. Too bad he hasn’t shown a whole lot of it in his career.

On the other side of the ball, the Argos D is a mess and having defensive guru Stubler out of the picture isn’t going to help. Mathews is in over his head, and despite some new faces on that side of the ball, I don’t see any way this team can handle the potent attack of the Stamps.



Edmonton +3.5 vs Montreal

Two of the top teams in the CFL will meet in Montreal this weekend. The Als are coming off a tough loss in Calgary, where despite playing well, continued their losing pattern against Western powerhouses.

Ray and Calvillo are the two top QB’s in the league, and 300+ yards of offense is to be expected out of both of them. The difference in this game will be the secondary, where Edmonton has shown signs of promise almost every week, and Montreal has shown… well, nothing. They’ve been consistently picked apart by good passing teams, whether it be Burris and the Stamps or Pierce and the Lions. Edmonton on the other hand has held teams in check and forced them to the ground on a few occasions. If Montreal has to rely on running the ball, I doubt they’ll be able to keep up. Their top back Cobourne is still out, and despite the backup looking fairly good, it’s not the type of attack that can keep up with Ray. I do think they’ll score, and that this will be close, but any time I’m getting points with Edmonton, I’m taking them.

The one area of concern is the Eskimos injuries. They’re slowly starting to compete with the Roughriders for the most injured team in the CFL, and because of that may not be my #1 ranked team any more. But, they’re still winning, and still producing on offense, and my numbers still like them, so the Eskimos it is.

[dwaechte]

Winnipeg -2 at Hamilton

Hamilton is one team I just can’t seem to figure out. I’ve been on the wrong side of their last 4 contests.

Despite looking terrible in 3 straight games, the firing of Charlie Taaffe must have jolted their system, as they came out playing really hard in Edmonton last week. They lost, made a bunch of stupid TiCat mistakes, and on the whole got outplayed by a more talented team. But, they mixed in some nice plays, took advantage of some Edmonton mistakes, and put points on the board on their way to covering the spread and almost winning outright.

But don’t be fooled. The talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, just isn’t there. They’re getting torched every week. And, they can’t pass the ball well. Printers is starting to show why he was once league MOP, as he has good instincts and can make things happen, but the velocity and accuracy just isn’t there on his passes, and it shows in the box score. Asking this team to stick with an improving Blue Bombers team is too much. This game is huge for both teams, as they fight to stay out of the cellar of the CFL, meaning we should get a hard fought game representative of the talent and preparedness of the teams. If that’s the case, Winnipeg should win. They’re not perfect, hell, they’re not even good, but Glenn seems to be putting it together, the running game is improved from the start of the year, and the defense still has most of the talent that got it to the Grey Cup game last year.

BC +1 at Saskatchewan

If you want to look at how much teams can progress over the course of a year, look at the BC Lions. Their first 5 or 6 games had them underachieving and looking like the weakest of the Western teams. But since that point, and particularly since inserting Buck Pierce as their starting QB, they’ve been simply dominant. I underestimated Pierce, but he’s shown calmness in the pocket along with outstanding accuracy. The offense since he took over has been outstanding, and they played the Roughriders defense last week tougher than anyone has all year.

The one staple for the Riders all year was their defense. Despite injuries, inconsistency, and drama on offense, the defense always produced, consistently shutting even the most explosive offenses down. But they couldn’t stop BC last week. They held Logan in check, but Roberts and Pierce ripped off some nice runs. The two stars of the Lions offense, Simon and Jackson, ran wild on the Riders secondary. Unless some major adjustments are made, I don’t see Saskatchewan faring much better against them this week.

That means the offense would have to step up, something it’s not ready to do. Bishop is still getting acclimated, and even if he does, this isn’t a top offense, it’s an average one. They can run the ball somewhat effectively, and Bishop can make some plays with his legs, but in the CFL you need to be able to pass the ball well. Their receivers don’t get the separation needed, and Bishop isn’t a good enough passer to squeeze it into the small windows, especially when the timing hasn’t been perfected between him and the receivers.

[southie]

Very well written - gl dwaechte

[dwaechte]

Well, a couple of the games have moved against me and a couple have moved with me. That being said, I'm still confident with these picks and will be letting them all ride.

[Marigold HD]

I hope you go 4-4 this week. I am staying away for a week.

Do you like the over in the lowly Winn-Ham game

[Brady2Moss]

How the hell did Winnipeg not cover this game? I cant believe this crap

[BlackJack]

tough push, as lots of 1.5's out there, but at least you werent one of the poor folsk who wound up taking -2.5

[Brady2Moss]

True, but pushing right here feels just like a loss... Winnipeg has SOOO many chances to cover this spread and they screwed it up, unreal...

[dwaechte]

Adding .25 units on BC at +3(+100).

[Marigold HD]

Looking good so far dwaechte