This bet is actually unfavorable as about 4.27% of games have a score differential of 1. I can estimate your expected value presuming that the money lline which is currently +140 is a zero expected value bet.
For instance, if you estimate the probability of the giants winning the money line is about .41666 (derived from 100/240 which assumes a zero EV bet on the money line), the expected value of your bet would be as follows roughly speaking:
(.41666 - .0437)(255/100) = 0.951
In other words, it would be more favorable to take the giants money line at + 140 than this bet unless you think there is a particularly high chance that the pats will win by one point.
Comment
p19101
SBR MVP
11-17-11
1419
#6
Originally posted by purplesleuth
This bet is actually unfavorable as about 4.27% of games have a score differential of 1. I can estimate your expected value presuming that the money lline which is currently +140 is a zero expected value bet.
For instance, if you estimate the probability of the giants winning the money line is about .41666 (derived from 100/240 which assumes a zero EV bet on the money line), the expected value of your bet would be as follows roughly speaking:
(.41666 - .0437)(255/100) = 0.951
In other words, it would be more favorable to take the giants money line at + 140 than this bet unless you think there is a particularly high chance that the pats will win by one point.
+130 is more of an accurate ML line, hasn't been +140 for a while.
Comment
wakeboardr886
SBR Sharp
04-09-10
453
#7
the lines dropped down to +125, I'm glad I got it before when it was higher
Comment
GamblerSpirit
SBR MVP
11-18-11
4085
#8
That's good, but the value still remains in the high numbers. BOL to you!
Comment
5mike5
SBR Aristocracy
09-21-11
52054
#9
-3.5 at +230 is the alt. line im on
Comment
k13
SBR Posting Legend
07-16-10
18104
#10
Originally posted by p19101
+130 is more of an accurate ML line, hasn't been +140 for a while.
Bookmaker had +145 yesterday
Comment
qsilver335
SBR MVP
11-11-09
1025
#11
A good bet if you can get it a ML any where near +145.
Comment
k13
SBR Posting Legend
07-16-10
18104
#12
Originally posted by qsilver335
A good bet if you can get it a ML any where near +145.
A good bet is one that wins.....
Comment
wakeboardr886
SBR Sharp
04-09-10
453
#13
ML isn't even close to +145
Comment
Sambooka
SBR Wise Guy
02-21-11
822
#14
i just put in my wager of Giants -3 @ +195 (alt. line)
Comment
GamblerSpirit
SBR MVP
11-18-11
4085
#15
Originally posted by k13
A good bet is one that wins.....
You never get tired of eating your words? Want to do a points bet?