Sure wish I could get it at 2 1/2 - but I highly doubt it'l get there.
Now - the first thing that pops into my head is 'Pennington revenge'. Chad is a damn good QB IMO and really underrated as a winner in the NFL. Chad wants to stick it to the Jets and I can't see him being terrible - but is Miami good enough in the red zone? Probably not - that has dogged Chad his whole career. However, Chad always plays tough in the big spot. Also, it's easy to like Ronnie Brown in the backfield again, he's a damn fine back.
But this is Jets/Miami. The Jets don't lose to Miami - well, not much. Are the Fish that much better this year? It's a transition year for them, and they definitly 'have to have' this game for them to make any progress. The Jets have consistently beat up on them for years.
Both teams had very good preseasons from a 'record' standpoint (The Jets could've been 4-0 realistically). Personally, I think the Jets showed more with their starting offense than a lot of people expected, when they were all out there. Their Defense? It's not very good. The Jets do have some playmakers on that D that can take the ball away, however - that is always key in games that are seemingly close on paper.
The big thing for me is Favre. Favre looks like he did last year - which was IMO his finest as a Quarterback (and I've seen well over 90% of every game he's ever played). But that's preseason I've seen him as a Jet.
The Jets have JUST enough offensive line to be strong and pass the ball. Thomas Jones/Leon Washington is a very solid 1-2 to carry the ball - although Leon couldn't pick up a blitz to save his life (this could be big later on this year)... And if Coles can get going? His health is always the concern. I think, if anything, Cotchery is going to be the guy. You could see it in the preseason that he's going to have a very good year for a very average receiver. I should note that Brett loves tight ends when they can catch the ball - that could be very very big in the red zone for the Jets. So far, they look a lot better than last year. Also - Brett doesn't need the best receivers to move the ball. He has made many players a lot of extra coin.
Just going over Miami's Defense - I can't see them being all that good. The Jets offensive line does very well versus a 3-4 defense, which is what Miami runs - Mangini even admitted this, as the team practices against it every day - it's their strength (and the line is where it all starts/ends).
Even looking over the players Miami added in the offseason - they really didn't get anyone that is better than 'pedestrian'. I think Ernest Wilford will do alright - but he is not a burner at WR at all, with shoddy hands (but he does catch them with the game on the line) - and no telling how far Ginn has come. Ginn will be better, though.
I think the X Factor in all of this is the defenses. The Jets have the benefit of a bit more time to work out the kinks - and they have a lot. Miami? Still pretty respectable, but from a talent standpoint, really young or really old and washed up... And without their true leader in Zach Thomas this year.
I can't see Miami scoring more than 14, maybe 17. Ronnie Brown will decide that. The Jets? I think they can put up at least 20. Probably 23ish I'm figuring - and that's good enough to cover the points.
Out of all the games this coming week I've seen - in early capping, this is the play with the best value in my eyes (although I got a good tip on Oakland and the points at the Bash
) - possibly more to come later in the week, I do have a lot of preseason to watch yet - but the Fish/Jets are done, for now.
Now - the first thing that pops into my head is 'Pennington revenge'. Chad is a damn good QB IMO and really underrated as a winner in the NFL. Chad wants to stick it to the Jets and I can't see him being terrible - but is Miami good enough in the red zone? Probably not - that has dogged Chad his whole career. However, Chad always plays tough in the big spot. Also, it's easy to like Ronnie Brown in the backfield again, he's a damn fine back.
But this is Jets/Miami. The Jets don't lose to Miami - well, not much. Are the Fish that much better this year? It's a transition year for them, and they definitly 'have to have' this game for them to make any progress. The Jets have consistently beat up on them for years.
Both teams had very good preseasons from a 'record' standpoint (The Jets could've been 4-0 realistically). Personally, I think the Jets showed more with their starting offense than a lot of people expected, when they were all out there. Their Defense? It's not very good. The Jets do have some playmakers on that D that can take the ball away, however - that is always key in games that are seemingly close on paper.
The big thing for me is Favre. Favre looks like he did last year - which was IMO his finest as a Quarterback (and I've seen well over 90% of every game he's ever played). But that's preseason I've seen him as a Jet.
The Jets have JUST enough offensive line to be strong and pass the ball. Thomas Jones/Leon Washington is a very solid 1-2 to carry the ball - although Leon couldn't pick up a blitz to save his life (this could be big later on this year)... And if Coles can get going? His health is always the concern. I think, if anything, Cotchery is going to be the guy. You could see it in the preseason that he's going to have a very good year for a very average receiver. I should note that Brett loves tight ends when they can catch the ball - that could be very very big in the red zone for the Jets. So far, they look a lot better than last year. Also - Brett doesn't need the best receivers to move the ball. He has made many players a lot of extra coin.
Just going over Miami's Defense - I can't see them being all that good. The Jets offensive line does very well versus a 3-4 defense, which is what Miami runs - Mangini even admitted this, as the team practices against it every day - it's their strength (and the line is where it all starts/ends).
Even looking over the players Miami added in the offseason - they really didn't get anyone that is better than 'pedestrian'. I think Ernest Wilford will do alright - but he is not a burner at WR at all, with shoddy hands (but he does catch them with the game on the line) - and no telling how far Ginn has come. Ginn will be better, though.
I think the X Factor in all of this is the defenses. The Jets have the benefit of a bit more time to work out the kinks - and they have a lot. Miami? Still pretty respectable, but from a talent standpoint, really young or really old and washed up... And without their true leader in Zach Thomas this year.
I can't see Miami scoring more than 14, maybe 17. Ronnie Brown will decide that. The Jets? I think they can put up at least 20. Probably 23ish I'm figuring - and that's good enough to cover the points.
Out of all the games this coming week I've seen - in early capping, this is the play with the best value in my eyes (although I got a good tip on Oakland and the points at the Bash
) - possibly more to come later in the week, I do have a lot of preseason to watch yet - but the Fish/Jets are done, for now.
