NFL week 1 lock..

travismcilrath · 09-02-08, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by crazymetfan

I am gonna post one game a week that I am gonna put a nice chunk of chain on..stats show you have a much higher winning percentage if you place straight bets then play small bet parlays.. You will come up on top trust me...

Week 1 pick...

Jaguars (-3)

Watch out for the jags this year there gonna be the Cinderella team their tough and could play there gonna win by 10 or more...

they will be good but not that great

Brady2Moss · 09-02-08, 04:56 PM

Jags -3 is a tough bet, TEN always plays division teams tough as hell...

I would stay AWAY from this game

durito · 09-02-08, 05:04 PM

you can't be a Cinderella team when you won 12 games the year before

ChiGuy23 · 09-02-08, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by Brady2Moss

Jags -3 is a tough bet, TEN always plays division teams tough as hell...

I would stay AWAY from this game

im with you on that.

I like SF +3, GB -2, and Sea at a PK

element1286 · 09-02-08, 09:48 PM

I like the jags this week, don't know if I am going to play it.

smitch124 · 09-02-08, 10:10 PM

What about their offensive lineman getting shot?, can't help much.

BGboothA · 09-02-08, 10:55 PM

Seahawks +1 @ Buffalo

I don't see how the hawks lose this game. They are the more experienced team. Hasselbeck looks good at practice and should be close to 100%.

The hawks Defense will shut down the anemic bills offense.

Look for the under in this one as well.

smitch124 · 09-02-08, 11:02 PM

If ya gotta go to Buffalo, now is the time.

Bobby · 09-02-08, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Seahawks +1 @ Buffalo

I don't see how the hawks lose this game. They are the more experienced team. Hasselbeck looks good at practice and should be close to 100%.

The hawks Defense will shut down the anemic bills offense.

Look for the under in this one as well.

Who is he going to throw to? Lots of injuries in that receiving core

crackerjack · 09-03-08, 06:19 AM

What's a chunk of chain?

arpeggiomeister · 09-03-08, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by crazymetfan

I am gonna post one game a week that I am gonna put a nice chunk of chain on..stats show you have a much higher winning percentage if you place straight bets then play small bet parlays.. You will come up on top trust me...

Week 1 pick...

Jaguars (-3)

Watch out for the jags this year there gonna be the Cinderella team their tough and could play there gonna win by 10 or more...

I would not count parlays out. I would agree that over the long term parlays will kill you, but I would never discard such a powerful weapon from my arsenal. There are times when you feel strongly about several games. You will get more bang for your buck if you bet them in a parlay rather than individually. I do not recommend trying to do this week after week, but when the moment arises where you feel compelled than take the shot.

I just took the Giants -4, Eagles -7.5, the Jets -3, and the Cowboys at -5.5 on a 4 team parlay. I only spent $25 and I will not cry if I lose it, but if I win I'll make $300. I'll budget this money strictly for parlays, betting half the pot each time. Week 2, 6, and 7 have matches that I would be interested in trying parlays on. If I lose all 3 of those weeks I come out with $35. That's a 40% gain on my $25.

This money is on top of my bank roll. If I lose it I either scrape up another $25 and try again or not touch parlays for the rest of the year. If I nail each one than my $25 will be over $64,000 by the end of week 7. The most likely scenario is that I pull out somewhere between $35 and $64,000. I'm only risking total loss once: week 1. Given the possible reward, I am more afraid being right and not taking action than I am of taking action and losing $25.

I use teasers, parlays, money bets, and line bets. I have yet to bet on an over/under, but I do not rule out the possibility. If it can make me money I'm interested.

I like the Jags but I am leary of this matchup. I would echo some of the other members that the Titans play their division tough, and they are on their home turf. I am not saying the Jags can't do it, but I wouldn't touch this one.