Question about hedging my 49ers futures bet

john230 · 01-09-12, 02:38 PM

I would hedge now if you are in for 60k if they win. I would risk no more than half my potential profits {30K**. If Giants beat GB you have a great opportunity because 49'ers should be favored. Anyhow you got great value at 30/1 with a #2 seed. Good luck.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 04:17 PM

Don't want to be a jerk but you don't have a whole lot to hedge YET. You can still play 49ers @ +2000 (Betfair), although the liquidity is not there for the numbers you're talking about, just as a reference to what the market values the 49ers to.

I'm not sure how you want to gamble here but if you like the chances 49ers has to beat the Saints then you're best off not hedging this game at all. Then hope that Giants beat the Packers and then you have really good value in your bet. At the moment 49ers and Giants are rated equally to win the SB by the market, both at roughly +2000.

p19101 · 01-09-12, 04:26 PM

Not sure if you have access to BetFair or not but you can LAY Niners at +2100 for roughly $1400 as the market stands at the moment. Would put you at $600 risk on 49ers and still have $32000 to win if they win the SB.

Minus commision...

GunShard · 01-09-12, 06:41 PM

It might be too late in the season to hedge.

Gilly86 · 01-09-12, 06:50 PM

If you're just looking to break even at the worst, just bet to win 2k on the teams that they play. Very conservative estimates:

Starting with 60k potential profit,

Vs NO -190 (3,800 to win 2,000) -- (56,200 potential profit remaining)
@ GB -500 (10,000 to win 2,000) -- (46,200 potential profit remaining)
Superbowl -300 (6,000 to win 2,000) -- (40,200 potential profit remaining)

Worst case scenario you break even, best case you win 40k. Plus if GB should get upset it'll leave even more potential profit for you.

Edit: Don't yell at me for the GB and superbowl ML estimates people, i said very conservative estimates.

jmetoronto · 01-09-12, 11:03 PM

OK I think I know what my best play is.

I really like my SF over NO. There isn't enough room for me to hedge all three games. Essentially, I need to gamble on SF one more game.

If they beat NO and play GB, the odds will be ..maybe -320 for GB? I'll bet $18,000 to win $5,625. So if GB wins, I'll profit $3,625 after subtracting the $2,000 from my original bet. If SF wins, I'll then be in for $20,000 total and will be betting on BAL or NE to beat SF.
Maybe a -130 line? I would then bet $32,000 to win about $24,500 on the AFC Champs. If SF wins the SB, I'd win $60k after being in for $52k, for an $8k profit. If SF loses, I'd win $24,500 on the bet after being in for $20,000, for a $4,500 profit. This way, I get to root for my team, but I also win a nice profit no matter what happens.

If NYG somehow beats GB, this can make me a lot more.

I'll guess NYG would be about +150 vs SF. I could bet $12k to win $18k. If NYG wins, I profit $16k. If SF wins, I'm in for $14k and would bet $30k to win about $23k on the AFC Champs. If SF wins, I profit $16k. If AFC wins, I profit $9k.

This is hard. I could gamble on them all the way but I really like them to beat the saints but not sure about 3 in a row.

byronbb · 01-09-12, 11:09 PM

Ask in the thinktank.

Big Bear · 01-10-12, 12:34 AM

not sure if this is the best advice but i am a dreamer and i like to believe in winning big.

Bet against the 49ers heavy on saturday. Put 2K on Saints ML.

My logic is you either win 1K on the Saints -200 or if you lose your 2K you are only 2 wins away from 60K!!!!

TheBet · 01-10-12, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by Gilly86

If you're just looking to break even at the worst, just bet to win 2k on the teams that they play. Very conservative estimates: Starting with 60k potential profit, Vs NO -190 (3,800 to win 2,000) -- (56,200 potential profit remaining) @ GB -500 (10,000 to win 2,000) -- (46,200 potential profit remaining) Superbowl -300 (6,000 to win 2,000) -- (40,200 potential profit remaining) Worst case scenario you break even, best case you win 40k. Plus if GB should get upset it'll leave even more potential profit for you. Edit: Don't yell at me for the GB and superbowl ML estimates people, i said very conservative estimates.

Is this fukkin kid still in middle school?

Gilly86 · 01-10-12, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by jmetoronto

OK I think I know what my best play is.

I really like my SF over NO. There isn't enough room for me to hedge all three games. Essentially, I need to gamble on SF one more game.

If they beat NO and play GB, the odds will be ..maybe -320 for GB? I'll bet $18,000 to win $5,625. So if GB wins, I'll profit $3,625 after subtracting the $2,000 from my original bet. If SF wins, I'll then be in for $20,000 total and will be betting on BAL or NE to beat SF.
Maybe a -130 line? I would then bet $32,000 to win about $24,500 on the AFC Champs. If SF wins the SB, I'd win $60k after being in for $52k, for an $8k profit. If SF loses, I'd win $24,500 on the bet after being in for $20,000, for a $4,500 profit. This way, I get to root for my team, but I also win a nice profit no matter what happens.

If NYG somehow beats GB, this can make me a lot more.

I'll guess NYG would be about +150 vs SF. I could bet $12k to win $18k. If NYG wins, I profit $16k. If SF wins, I'm in for $14k and would bet $30k to win about $23k on the AFC Champs. If SF wins, I profit $16k. If AFC wins, I profit $9k.

This is hard. I could gamble on them all the way but I really like them to beat the saints but not sure about 3 in a row.

Not a huge fan of this but profit is profit I suppose, bol.

p19101 · 01-10-12, 12:12 PM

Why complicate it so much