49ers NFC Champs +600

[Trepanned]

Hello all. First post. I think I'm starting to get the hang of NFL handicapping (just as the season's ending) but better late than never. I can't say I love any of the bets this week but I like the Niners +600 for the NFC Championship. I figure they're about 70% vs Giants/Falcons and 35-40% vs the Packers/Saints so that's 6 to 1 money on 4 to 1 odds. Plus a hedge may be available if they win the first game convincingly.

[The Real Betman]

There's very little chance the 49'ers play Giants/Falcons next weekend. In all likelihood they have to play Saints at Candlestick and Green Bay at Lambeau.

[odog11]

There's very little chance the 49'ers play Giants/Falcons next weekend. In all likelihood they have to play Saints at Candlestick and Green Bay at Lambeau.

Yep, and looks like they will be dogs if/when the Saints come marching in.

[KuLaPhU]

Let's give some respect to 49ers.. lot of people still don't believe they can dominate and win football games.

[infamousbacardi]

Let's give some respect to 49ers.. lot of people still don't believe they can dominate and win football games.

Respect the Niners all you want, I don't see any way they beat the Saints at SF then travel to GB and beat the Packers at Lambeau...if the first one doesn't get them...the second one will!!

[rockhardfister]

Falcons will take care of the Niners
Lions will take care of the Packers
Falcons will take care of the Lions
Falcons will dispatch the Ravens
Move on to 2012 season now folks

[p19101]

Giants will run straight over the Falcons. Then they will go and visit Lambo just as in 2007 and we all know how that went down

[rockhardfister]

Giants will run straight over the Falcons. Then they will go and visit Lambo just as in 2007 and we all know how that went down

Yep - that vaunted 3 headed running attack that didn't yield a single 1000 yard rusher (not even close) is going to run over a top 10 run defense? If you would have said that Eli is going to scorch the Falcon secondary then I might buy that.

[KuLaPhU]

Respect the Niners all you want, I don't see any way they beat the Saints at SF then travel to GB and beat the Packers at Lambeau...if the first one doesn't get them...the second one will!!

Saints need to beat lions first homie.. Well, I don't see any way saints can beat niners defense at HOME.

[infamousbacardi]

Saints need to beat lions first homie.. Well, I don't see any way saints can beat niners defense at HOME.

Lions? Are you kidding me? They are going to get steam rolled in New Orleans. Saints on the road are a much simpler mountain to climb...but in that dome? Lions stand absolutely no chance. That secondary is fugly.

[mv09]

IF it were 49ers @ Saints, I'd say no way ... but N.O. (assuming they win) have to travel to San Fran and San Fran is real good at home.

A lot of people are on the Saints/Brees are unstoppable bandwagon. Yes, they have one of the best offenses of all time and Brees had one of the most impressive, if not the most impressive, season of all time but Stafford was nearly his equal.

Brees 5476 YDs 46 TDs
Stafford 5038 YDs 41 TDs

If the Lions passrush can get to Brees, it could be a lot closer than people think.

Saints are not a lock to face the 49ers next week. Not at all.

With that said, 49ers are my pick to win the Superbowl. They have a very Baltimore Ravens'eque of the early 2000s feel to them.

[warriorfan707]

Niners/Saints will be a great matchup

[mv09]

Lions? Are you kidding me? They are going to get steam rolled in New Orleans. Saints on the road are a much simpler mountain to climb...but in that dome? Lions stand absolutely no chance. That secondary is fugly.

Ford Field is a Dome too. Lions are accustomed to playing in those conditions.

[infamousbacardi]

Ford Field is a Dome too. Lions are accustomed to playing in those conditions.

It's not about playing "on turf" or "in a dome" in general...it's playing on that turf in THAT dome. I HATE both of these teams, Saints and Lions, but the Saints at home is definitely a scary proposition. Hence why the Saints were 8-0 at home, including a 14 point victory over these same Lions. Not to mention, the Lions playing in their dome were only 5-3. Including losses to all 3 of the playoff teams they played there in the Niners, Falcons, and Packers. Their dome isn't nearly the advantage the Saints "dome" is.

You can also try and compare Stafford to Brees all you want...facts are facts, and the facts say that Brees had more TDs, less interceptions, a whopping 8% better completion percentage, over 25 more yards passing per game, and a QB rating almost 20 points higher than Stafford's.

I hate both of these teams, and both of these QBs...but you can't compare them really...Saints are going to roll the Lions this weekend.

[Trepanned]

Respect the Niners all you want, I don't see any way they beat the Saints at SF then travel to GB and beat the Packers at Lambeau...if the first one doesn't get them...the second one will!!

I agree that NO is vulnerable on the road and I don't know why you can't see SF winning in Lambeau. The Chiefs showed that a good D can make Rodgers look tentative and slow and the run game makes this exactly the kind of team to stop the annointed Pack. Throw in some weather and hallelujah

[p19101]

Yep - that vaunted 3 headed running attack that didn't yield a single 1000 yard rusher (not even close) is going to run over a top 10 run defense? If you would have said that Eli is going to scorch the Falcon secondary then I might buy that.

Well I didn't refer to the running attack but more so that running over as in stomping

[rockhardfister]

Well I didn't refer to the running attack but more so that running over as in stomping

Understood but the Giants are off and on and really dont stomp anyone unless they are extrememly motivated. Jets and Cowboys were big games for Big Blue and they showed up big time for those games. Even got some pretty piss poor penalties and replay reversals against the Jets that I thought would break them and they still perservered. Can they get it up another week against the boring Falcons? Im banking on a Seattle / Washington like performance this week. If the insanely focused Giants show up again for a 3rd straight week then I think ATL is in for a long day. Weather looks good.

[mv09]

It's not about playing "on turf" or "in a dome" in general...it's playing on that turf in THAT dome. I HATE both of these teams, Saints and Lions, but the Saints at home is definitely a scary proposition. Hence why the Saints were 8-0 at home, including a 14 point victory over these same Lions. Not to mention, the Lions playing in their dome were only 5-3. Including losses to all 3 of the playoff teams they played there in the Niners, Falcons, and Packers. Their dome isn't nearly the advantage the Saints "dome" is.

You can also try and compare Stafford to Brees all you want...facts are facts, and the facts say that Brees had more TDs, less interceptions, a whopping 8% better completion percentage, over 25 more yards passing per game, and a QB rating almost 20 points higher than Stafford's.

I hate both of these teams, and both of these QBs...but you can't compare them really...Saints are going to roll the Lions this weekend.

Matt Stafford is 23 years old and just had a better season in terms of yards and TDs this year than Peyton Manning has had in his entire 13 season career (minus the 'then record' 49 TD season).

Would you ever give Peyton Manning 10+ points in an NFL Playoff game at any point of his career?

He's thrown for an NFL high 1500+ yards in his last 4 games with 15 TDs and 3 INTs.
He's better BETTER than Brees in the past month.

Saints have a horrible pass defense.
They do not cause turnovers.
Saints CAN get burned and 10 points is WAY too much.

49ers are a 50/50 in my book to face the Lions next week.

[PAULYPOKER]

Niners/Saints will be a great matchup

9ers do not have enough offense nor defense to keep up with breeze.................

[Scully]

Brees will slice through that Lions defense like a hot knife cutting through butter. (1 cut = 1 TD)

[warriorfan707]

9ers do not have enough offense nor defense to keep up with breeze.................

Niners almost beat the Saints at home on MNF last year with Singletary as head coach and a much inferior team than we have now

Niners can beat the Saints in Frisco

[PAULYPOKER]

Niners almost beat the Saints at home on MNF last year with Singletary as head coach and a much inferior team than we have now Niners can beat the Saints in Frisco

This would be true if the 9ers were playing last years Saints but they are not....

bottom line Saints are a juggernaut this year...............

[warriorfan707]

This sounds similar to when people were telling me the steelers would roll the Niners on Monday Night

Dont underestimate the Niners in San Fran

[PAULYPOKER]

One big difference here,I'm not a Saints fan..............

[slacker00]

Seems like decent odds on a solid team. 49ers are 4-1 against playoff teams this season.

[Nickelicious]

I took 49ers vs. Ravens in the Super Bowl at +2000.

Nice payoff for an idea that is not outrageous.

[warriorfan707]

I took 49ers vs. Ravens in the Super Bowl at +2000.

Nice payoff for an idea that is not outrageous.

Rematch of the Thanksgiving battle would be sick

[slacker00]

This would be true if the 9ers were playing last years Saints but they are not....

bottom line Saints are a juggernaut this year...............

Pauly, just shut up already.