CFL Week 10

[dwaechte]

Lines are up boys, and let’s just say they’re questionable at best in my eyes. 5 plays for the week.

Home team in Caps

2.1* MONTREAL -4 over British Columbia(-105)

1.57* SASKATCHEWAN -3 over Winnipeg(-105)

1.57* SASKATCHEWAN/Winnipeg under 51(-105)

1.57*Edmonton +5.5 over CALGARY(-105)

1.57*HAMILTON -3 over Toronto(-105)

Write-ups to come.








YTD(through week 9): 26-17-1, +8.72

[dwaechte]

First off, note that all East teams had last week off and probably get a bit of an edge from that.

BC at Montreal:

BC is in an absolute freefall right now. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they’ve played the 3 best teams in the CFL over their past 4 games, but their defense has been getting shredded, and no matter the opponent, the numbers are unacceptable.

Montreal went into BC and lost a game by 2 points that it probably should’ve won outright earlier in the year, and since that point Montreal has continued to look sharp while BC has struggled on defense and with their QB play. Jarius Jackson is finally getting benched in favour of Buck Pierce, who doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. If Montreal can hold Stefan Logan to a mere good day instead of a great one, the Als should roll. The entire Montreal offense has been playing at a level comparable to Edmonton and Calgary, the two teams that have torn up that Lions D.

Winnipeg at Saskatchewan:

Saskatchewan is a mess right now in a lot of different ways. They traded for Bishop from Toronto and are installing him as the starter, obviously fed up with the atrocious offense they’ve seen the last two weeks after losing Durant. The funny part though is that Bishop is ahead of even a healthy Durant on the depth chart, when the team played very well with Darian under center. I like Bishop as a QB, but I don’t like throwing him in so soon, and I didn’t like his play in his only appearance this year. The Saskatchewan offense may be in shambles this week, but hopefully they won’t need much.

The Blue Bombers really impressed me in their win over Hamilton, mainly the way Charles Roberts looked. He had a good burst and was finding holes, although the TiCats run D is nothing to be proud of.

The logic behind this pick may be outdated, as if you only go by each teams last game, this may not play out how I expect. But the trend of the last game still isn’t enough for me to forget what I’ve seen all year, and that’s a Roughrider run defense that’s been terrific and a Winnopeg O-line that’s been outmatched most games. This, along with the fact that Winnipeg has never really had much of a passing game this year, is pushing me into Sask and the under.

More to come.

[accuscoresucks]

damn dwaechte your ontop of this week,i havent even tought of cfl this week yet

[dwaechte]

Edmonton at Calgary:


Edmonton has firmly entrenched itself as the best team in the CFL. Their offense has been dynamite all year, and after showing they can run the ball last week against the Roughriders, it seems like they’re putting it all together. But the real improvement has come on the defensive end. They’ve now had 4 straight solid outings(The 40 points allowed to BC was actually a decent effort in some ways), although they haven’t faced any top offensive teams in that time(The best was probably Hamilton), and all of the teams were more run focused than pass focused. So there is some worry that the pass defense won’t be up to snuff when facing a passing attack like Calgary’s, but if they shut down Joffrey Reynolds that will be a great start.

The Stampeders are a good team, there’s no doubting that, and their home field advantage should be a factor. But, their offense had been in slow decline before playing BC last week, and although Burris is a good QB, he’s not infallible and he does have his off days. Their defense, although consistent, has been mediocre at best all year long. That’s what this one comes down to for me, the fact that I see Edmonton moving the ball all day long with their patented big plays mixed in. I’d be surprised if they didn’t hang 30+, and shocked if they didn’t get into the 24 range.



Toronto at Hamilton:

What can you say about this Toronto team? They’ve been garbage, garbage, garbage all year long, and the books are refusing to adjust. They’re almost in auto-fade territory right now because my perception is so different from others, but they’ve been terrible against the spread, and until they put together a solid outing I’m not going to change my view. Joseph simply is not working in this system, and the injuries to their WR’s have proven more costly than anyone could’ve imagined. But it’s not just the offense.. the defense is also arguably the worst in the league. Maybe Rich Stubler fixed some things in the bye week, but he’s seemed awfully stubborn, and moving Bishop isn’t enough; they need to make some sweeping changes in their structure and philosophy.

Hamilton on the other hand is probably the most underrated team in the CFL. They haven’t won much, but they’ve burnt Toronto twice and have stayed in games against some very good teams.(Montreal, Edmonton, and Saskatchewan back when they were still playing well).

I’m weary of Printers starting, as I loved the rushing attack that Williams brought, but if Printers can just be average and manage the game, Lumsden and the rushing attack should pave the way.





For other plays, I’m leaning Montreal/BC under 58.5 and Edmonton/Calg over 57, but am unsure whether I’ll play them or not. I’m worried about Logan going off for BC and am a little too confident in Edmonton’s improving D.


Week 10 Power Rankings:

1. Edmonton
2. Montreal
3. Calgary
4. Saskatchewan
5. BC
6. Hamilton
7. Winnipeg
8. Toronto

[csimmalavong]

montreal to cover for sure. i dont have a nice read on toronto/hamilton and sask/winn. i would tease edmonton, for +12.5 although i like calgary to win outright.

[dwaechte]

damn dwaechte your ontop of this week,i havent even tought of cfl this week yet

I've gotten pretty into this and have all my capping done bright and early Monday morning, ready for when the lines come out that afternoon. I feel confident with the system I have going and like to hit the lines early. I actually got to them so quick this week that a couple of line services are showing the openers as the lines from after I hit the actual openers lol.

[csimmalavong]

i just hammered montreal -4.5 with my bankroll.
i wouldnt be surprised if the line ended up at 6 or 6.5.

what do you guys think about a teaser of:
edmonton +12.5
edm/cal OVER 50
(or sask/winn UNDER 57.5)

your thoughts?

[Bobby]

Nice writeups dwaechte. I had the lines the exact same as the bookmakers for all the matchups except edm@calgary. I had Calgary pegged at -1.5 favs, not -5.5....very surprising. I don't want to be too quick to jump on edmonton + the points only because I do believe Calgary is going to the grey cup...thought this for the past few weeks. And if I believe that to be true I cannot go against them because labor day games are sometimes blowouts. I"m unsure about mtl/bc and ham/tor but I tend to lean towards the favorite on those two. For wpg/sask I love Winnipeg. Been a blue bomber season ticket holder for years and I know how this team works. Wpg coming off a bye week, Glenn back hitting his stride, Sask falling fast and now reports of internal problems because of Bishop being brought in, "soft" line in some people's eyes, revenge from the grey cup....perfect spot for a Winnipeg victory. I plan on fading Sask until it loses because I think they will quickly drop to 6-6. I think you're bang on with the under...I expect a 23-20 game.

Keep an eye on the weather this week for total purposes. All outdoor games this week, all home team stadiums are above grade elevation and have holes depending on the wind direction. With it turning fall we may have some serious wind or rain in some games this weekend which will be perfect unders. Already rain is being predicted for Friday in Montreal so keep an eye out for that as it nears Friday.

[EmceeDusty]

Montreal vs BC- OVER
Saskatchewan to cover vs Winnipeg
BC vs Edmonton- OVER

3 winners for this week. New to this forum but prob the biggest CFL follower on here.

[csimmalavong]

Montreal vs BC- OVER
Saskatchewan to cover vs Winnipeg
BC vs Edmonton- OVER

3 winners for this week. New to this forum but prob the biggest CFL follower on here.

you sure about that montreal/bc over ? i know montreal will score atleast 30, but what about bc. they have some offensive and defensive troubles on the road.

[chipper13101]

BC's Jarious Jackson is doubtful with a screwed up throwing hand, and backup QB Buck Pierce hasn't shown us anything yet this year, so I don't see the Lions putting up alot of points. This should be an under, and Montreal to cover.

[EmceeDusty]

BC lost at home last week and always plays well vs Montreal. Im sticking with my guns and saying the game will be over.

[Bobby]

Why so fast to discount Pierce at QB? His QB rating is identical to Jackson, he just hasn't seen as much game time. He's the reason BC almost won the game vs Calgary. I like the over in this game as well.

[dwaechte]

Good movements on all the games early, although the limits haven't been raised yet so a lot of sharp money probably isn't in yet. Still, 5Dimes has the Winnipeg total down to 49.5, Edm down to +4.5, Montreal up to -5, Sask to -3.5, and some cent pricing in favour of Hamilton.

[dwaechte]

Why so fast to discount Pierce at QB? His QB rating is identical to Jackson, he just hasn't seen as much game time. He's the reason BC almost won the game vs Calgary. I like the over in this game as well.

Pierce isn't bad by any means, but I don't think he's very good either. I expect he'll give them roughly the same as they were getting out of Jackson, and if that's the case I have trouble envisioning BC putting up a lot of points. Last week I called the 58.5(59?) total in the BC game to be absurd, and they proved me wrong by going over it. But, I still don't think they can be considered a good offensive team, and you have to remember just how high that 58.5 total is. I could certainly be wrong, but like I said in my initial post my lean in that one is on the under. Can't argue too much with playing a Montreal over in general though.

[Bobby]

FYI looks like no rain for the Montreal game.

I hear ya dwaechte. I should have been more clear my lean is on the over but I will not be playing the side or OU on the Montreal game, it's the other three games this week that interest me. My lean towards the over in Montreal comes mostly from the fact that I think Montreal will score in the mid to high 30's...if that's true then I think BC can probably get 20 to 24 points and send it over. I think if you like the under on the game because you don't think BC can score you would be better off taking BC team total under. Or if you like the over you may want to take either team's total over depending on who you think is going to score more.

My strong leans right now are Winnipeg ML, Calgary ATS and OU plays pending the weather reports.

[chipper13101]

Why so fast to discount Pierce at QB? His QB rating is identical to Jackson, he just hasn't seen as much game time. He's the reason BC almost won the game vs Calgary. I like the over in this game as well.

Why do you think Buono starts Jackson, or do you know something Wally doesn't?

[Bobby]

I think he starts Jackson because Jackson can run the ball when he's in trouble and Pierce can't....doesn't mean Pierce is bad though.

[Marigold HD]

I think he starts Jackson because Jackson can run the ball when he's in trouble and Pierce can't....doesn't mean Pierce is bad though.

Lol......Paul McCallum should start since he has a 195.7 QB rating. And a perfect 2-2 throwing percentge.

[dwaechte]

Adding: .55 * 6.5 Teaser, BC under 65, Calg over 50.5

[csimmalavong]

how about sask/winn UNDER 57.5 ?

[dwaechte]

how about sask/winn UNDER 57.5 ?

Looks good to me.

[csimmalavong]

teasing winnipeg+10 and sask/winn UNDER 57.5 would be a nice play then...

i have a feeling winnipeg will put up a decent amount of points, but in the end,
sask will find a way to win at home.

anyone have a read on that tor/ham game ?

[chipper13101]

hellyah....hamilton at home. It's a semi-lock. Printers is coming back to reclaim the starting job and he'll be anxious not to screw up..

[EmceeDusty]

Printers is a game time decision from the report i seen last night on Sportsnet.

[csimmalavong]

is there any chance BC shows up, comes into montreal and wins outright ?
im laying alot of money with montreal with the spread (-4.5) and a couple teasers (+2)...can i get a confirmation that there is no chance of BC winning lol

i just cant picture it happening, even with the explosive logan.

[dwaechte]

is there any chance BC shows up, comes into montreal and wins outright ?
im laying alot of money with montreal with the spread (-4.5) and a couple teasers (+2)...can i get a confirmation that there is no chance of BC winning lol

i just cant picture it happening, even with the explosive logan.

Haha, anything can happen in any game, don't go overboard on it.

[chipper13101]

Printers is a game time decision from the report i seen last night on Sportsnet.

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl/story/?id=246913&lid=sublink010&lpos=headlines_cfl

[chipper13101]

is there any chance BC shows up, comes into montreal and wins outright ?
im laying alot of money with montreal with the spread (-4.5) and a couple teasers (+2)...can i get a confirmation that there is no chance of BC winning lol

i just cant picture it happening, even with the explosive logan.

csim, it ain't a lock if that's what you're looking for. The books are basically making it a one possession ball game difference and alot could happen. If the Lions come to play, it could go either way. I'd say go mtl ML, but then what do i know..

[Bobby]

I would never say there is no chance because the only sure thing with gambling is that there is no sure thing. Montreal is supposed to win this game but an outright BC win would not surprised me that much to be honest. Montreal as a home favorite has not covered well in the past few years and BC has had alot of past success vs Montreal. I'm laying off this one altogether.

[Marigold HD]

I like Saskatchewan -3 today

[csimmalavong]

got lucky yesterday. i also like sask, along with a teaser involving winnipeg +10.