Official: WEEK 17 Calling All NFL Guru's........

p19101 · 12-27-11, 05:32 PM

49ers want to clinch the 2nd seed. Lions want to clinch the 5th seed to avoid Saints. Falcons want to win to get a chance not facing the Saints. Titans to beat Texans to have a playoff chance and Patriots to win to clinch #1 seed.

Looking at a 10pt 3 team teaser with Patriots -1.5, 49ers -.5 and Falcons -3

Seems very likely to hit if they are all going for the win.

p19101 · 12-27-11, 05:32 PM

Also already taken the Titans -2.5

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 06:00 PM

Great info! Now I know its early on in the week, but what are the chances of lets say the Packers starting Rodgers? The Saints starting Brees (he already got the single season passing record) or the Patriots starting Brady (Billicheck never gives up). Now they may start but once up enough points they may pull them and play a more conservative approach. What are your thoughts......

Cheers!

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 06:10 PM

Just read on another thread that Brady is actually chasing Brees single season passing record. Brady needs over 190 yds, so I would say you can count on Brees playing and trying to pad his stats, as well as Brady chasing Brees for that record. So I would expect both Brees amd Brady to be playing!

Cheers!

DJ Dana · 12-27-11, 06:15 PM

I was thinking of starting a thread about just this topic. I think there are some great value plays this weekend as you have some matchups with teams playing to win vs teams who have packed it in. Here are a couple:

Jets @ Miami (there is literally very reason to see the Jets show up for this game. They just lost a huge game to the Gmen and will be down as they need a ton of help to get to the playoffs. More then this, Miami will be very motivated to avenge an earlier drubbing in NY. All situational angles here favor the Dolphins.) I also feel Miami could give the Jets all they want to begin with here and Sanchito is perhaps one of the league's most over-rated QBs as evidenced by last week's game.

Detroit at GB. This one's simple: Why would GB play any of their starters? They have home field iced over the entire NFC and all they can do is risk injury by playing the big names. Would you even start Rodgers at all in this one? I believe the Lions can also raise themselves from a #6 to a #5 seed with the win and given the fact that they have not won in Wisconsin since the early 1990's I think you'll see them show up. It's a nice momentum boost for them. The line is Detroit -3.5 right now so Vegas is already telling you what they think here.

There are more out there but despite what some think I believe there are more then a couple easy money plays in the final week....

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 06:29 PM

I was looking at Jets vs. Miami and completely agree. 1.) Sanchez overrated 2.)Dolphins would love nothing more than to knock off the division rivals, with no chance to enter the playoffs. Spread is small .... Leaning Miami
Detroit is another game I agree with. When gametime comes and GB decides to sit their starters, you can count on the Lions winning cause if they lose they have to play the Saints in the playoffs 1st round and thats not what they want! May have to wait later in the week to find out what GB is gonna do, but why wouldnt they not sit their starters........

Cheers!

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 06:37 PM

One game that I do like and is kinda jumping out is Chargers vs. Raiders. I have not seen a spread yet but would imagine it is close. I'd take the Chargers here. 1.) Chargers have a better Run D, Pass D, more Pass yds, and more points scored. When all Raiders have is a better rush game but I would imagine that was with McFadden. Now the Raiders can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Broncos Loss, but I dont see the Broncos losing to the Chiefs..... I see the Raiders blowing this game, and I love taking Rivers late in the season.

Cheers!

SteveRyan · 12-27-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by DJ Dana

Detroit at GB. This one's simple: Why would GB play any of their starters? They have home field iced over the entire NFC and all they can do is risk injury by playing the big names. Would you even start Rodgers at all in this one? I believe the Lions can also raise themselves from a #6 to a #5 seed with the win and given the fact that they have not won in Wisconsin since the early 1990's I think you'll see them show up. It's a nice momentum boost for them. The line is Detroit -3.5 right now so Vegas is already telling you what they think here.

There are more out there but despite what some think I believe there are more then a couple easy money plays in the final week....

Green Bay will have to start 1st string. Reason why? They have 2 weeks off after that game. If Rodgers and other key players get benched, they will then be getting 3 weeks off. That's too long. Players loose their edge with that much time off, and coaches know this.

1st string will go 1st half at the very least.

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 07:44 PM

I agree with that reasoning, but lets say yes they do only play the 1st half, Do you still go with the Lions then?

SteveRyan · 12-27-11, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by BoutDemCowboys

I agree with that reasoning, but lets say yes they do only play the 1st half, Do you still go with the Lions then?

No, I bet Green Bay 1st half only.

billysink · 12-27-11, 09:20 PM

New York Jets will be one of my plays this weekend. One of the worst offensive lines in the game without Pro Bowl left tackle Jake Long against a very good defensive team with a lot left to play for will be exposed this week. This is the Dolphins first test against an NFL caliber pass rush in the last three weeks and they may not be ready. With the top flight coverage that Revis and company will provide. Moore will likely spend the afternoon either running for his life or handing the ball of to a dinged up Reggie Bush. With the likely absence of favorite red zone target TE Anthony Fasano (concussion), points may be tough to come by for the Dolphins. Even if he plays he will spend most of the day chip blocking either edge to help make up for Long's absence.

Top cornerback Vontae Davis is also likely to miss this week. If Miami has any shot it will be on the backs of a defense that will probably spend a lot of time on the field this weekend.

I do not like the Dolphins at all in this spot.

billysink · 12-27-11, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by SteveRyan

Green Bay will have to start 1st string. Reason why? They have 2 weeks off after that game. If Rodgers and other key players get benched, they will then be getting 3 weeks off. That's too long. Players loose their edge with that much time off, and coaches know this.

1st string will go 1st half at the very least.

Detroit is planning on resting some dinged up players as well here so be careful.

Kevin Smith is likely to sit and they are talking about a guy they signed this week off of New Orleans practice squad getting a lot of game action.

Be very careful with teams like the Lions who have little to play for. They are spending as much time in practice this week as they can preparing for potential playoff matchups. You can be sure you will read all the usual bunk about playing hard and playing to win but read between the lines.

With no week off and a playoff road game on the horizon it stands to reason that you prepare for the games that mean the most. That certainly counts out this weekends tilt.

BoutDemCowboys · 12-27-11, 10:04 PM

Any thoughts on Vikings vs. Bears? Im leaning Bears. They have way better Defense in all aspects of run and pass, score more points, and AP is out for the Vikings. I kno bears lost Forte and Cutler, but I think the defense wins this one for the bears.

billysink · 12-27-11, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by BoutDemCowboys

Any thoughts on Vikings vs. Bears? Im leaning Bears. They have way better Defense in all aspects of run and pass, score more points, and AP is out for the Vikings. I kno bears lost Forte and Cutler, but I think the defense wins this one for the bears.

Wait to see if Ponder is active. Joe Webb plays very well in games that he enters in relief of an injured starter or in games that teams have little time to game plan for him. He is another hybrid type that is hard to plan for.

I already took a flyer on the opener of 39. I do not think Ponder plays. Washington rang up 400 yards of offense last week on Minny. I see no reason to think the Vikings can hold anyone under 23 at this point in the season. I think Joe Webb can create enough space to open up the field for Gerhardt.

Not a fan of the side in a pick em game.

BigDeem5 · 12-27-11, 11:34 PM

Take Jets +1

Masu485 · 12-28-11, 12:32 AM

I ended up taking

Saint -9.5 +105
Colts +4 -110

Nittany Lion · 12-28-11, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by BoutDemCowboys

One game that I do like and is kinda jumping out is Chargers vs. Raiders. I have not seen a spread yet but would imagine it is close. I'd take the Chargers here. 1.) Chargers have a better Run D, Pass D, more Pass yds, and more points scored. When all Raiders have is a better rush game but I would imagine that was with McFadden. Now the Raiders can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Broncos Loss, but I dont see the Broncos losing to the Chiefs..... I see the Raiders blowing this game, and I love taking Rivers late in the season.

Cheers!

Broncos could easily lose to the Chiefs, Orton is gonna want payback and the Chiefs have nothing to lose, nothing would be better to beat a divisional rival and hopefully knock them out of the playoffs. The game is gonna be a fight, I'm staying away.

And the Raiders at home fighting for a playoff spot against a divisional in state rival....another stay away game.

I'm gonna say the Chiefs and Raiders win, but who knows with the way the AFC West is.

GunShard · 12-28-11, 02:02 AM

theres a strange ats trend that favors the Titans over the Texans.

budman77j · 12-28-11, 12:57 PM

what about the jax / indy nobody would want to win that game ??????? draft spot up for grabs

DJ Dana · 12-28-11, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

theres a strange ats trend that favors the Titans over the Texans.

The Texans can't change where they are in playoff seeding (#3). The Titans STILL have a shot at getting in the playoffs. The Texans from all angles would be wise to rest their starters (maybe play them 1st half?). Even though it's in Texans I think smarter money is on the Titans here. There is no reason for the Texans to try to win here other than to have some momentum going into the postseason. I think the fact that Vegas has the Titans as 3 point favorites tells you the story here.

DJ Dana · 12-28-11, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by SteveRyan

Green Bay will have to start 1st string. Reason why? They have 2 weeks off after that game. If Rodgers and other key players get benched, they will then be getting 3 weeks off. That's too long. Players loose their edge with that much time off, and coaches know this.

1st string will go 1st half at the very least.

This is a very unlikely scenario here. GB would be foolish to play their starters any more then 1 quarter of this game. Sounds like you already placed your bet on GB to me.

odog11 · 12-28-11, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by BoutDemCowboys

One game that I do like and is kinda jumping out is Chargers vs. Raiders. I have not seen a spread yet but would imagine it is close. I'd take the Chargers here. 1.) Chargers have a better Run D, Pass D, more Pass yds, and more points scored. When all Raiders have is a better rush game but I would imagine that was with McFadden. Now the Raiders can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Broncos Loss, but I dont see the Broncos losing to the Chiefs..... I see the Raiders blowing this game, and I love taking Rivers late in the season. Cheers!

I can see the Broncos losing and I will be surprised if that game isn't close when the 4th quarter starts for the Raiders, so I don't see this angle in play. Also throw in the fact that San Diego playing for a lame duck coach. Well, at least for Chargers fans I hope they are.

Don't see an edge for San Diego in this one other than Raider's unpredictability, but for me it's a stay away game.

BoutDemCowboys · 12-28-11, 11:33 PM

I'm kind of skeptical on three games now that I have their spreads out.......

1.)San Fran -10.5 vs. Rams (Will San Fran try? Win by 10? get upset cause game is meaningless? 10.5 is alot)
2.)New Orleans -9.5 vs. Panthers (Again Will Brees be in whole game? I see Saints winning but 9.5?)
3.)Lions -3.5 AWAY vs. GB (Are you shitting me? Im almost stuck taking Lions? Something I dont know!?)
I wouldnt touch any of these games but I have to choose, due to the pool that I am in!

I noticed NO spread is now at 7.5 so I will prob take Panthers 9.5
Lions scare the shit outa me gonna play em low
San Fran no Effing Idea