Best Bets 9/15

[Illusion]

Who do you guys like for today?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[newb411breaker19]

sides
Braves over Phillies +113 1 UNIT

Runline
Astros -1.5 vs. Marlins +148 1 UNIT
Yanks -1.5 vs. D-rays -120 1 UNIT

Totals
Brewers/D-backs O9 -116 1 UNIT

good luck all

[newb411breaker19]

srry adding

ChiSox/Royals O9 +112 1 UNIT

[Illusion]

Yesterday's results:

Razz: 3-2 +6.69
EBone: 4-3 +4.18
newb411breaker19: 2-0 +2.03
MAB: 1-0 +1.11
eagles: 1-0 +1.00
Illusion: 1-2 +0.90
kdmfox: 2-3 -0.87
Todd: 1-4 -3.94

[eagles]

ncaa football utah utes - 3.5

[Emmdoubleu]

ncaa football utah utes - 3.5

Eagles...are you as solid in cfl as you are in the wnba

[aceking]

Schilling and the Red Sox today

[EBone]

Here's what I will play today:

5 units-----NY Mets(Seo) over Washington(L. Hernandez) @ -139 @ Hollywood
1 unit----Atlanta(Sosa) over Philadelphia(Myers) @ +110 @ 5 Dimes
5 units----Houston(Pettitte) over Florida(Vargas) @ -156 @ 5 Dimes
2.25 units---Milwaukee(Ohka) over Arizona(Estes) @ -101 @ Pinnacle
1.5 units----Oakland(Blanton) over Boston(Schilling) @ +138 @ VIP


Good luck to everyone today.


E

[Razz]

Baseball Overall (101-86-1, +39.34*)
Baseball Sides (63-51, +46.89*)

3* Braves (Sosa) @ Phillies (Myers) +107
2* Rangers (Loe) vs. Mariners (Harris) -144
2* Mets (Seo) vs. Nats (L Hernandez) -144
1* Red Sox (Schilling) vs. A‘s (Blanton) -147
1* Angels (Colon) -1.5 vs. Tigers (Maroth) -110

Baseball Totals (38-35-1, -7.55*)
Pass

[Todd]

Atlanta -105

[Razz]

Typical Mets. Take a one-run lead into the ninth in a game they should be winning by at least 3, and their horrible closer blows it, with some help from the defense.

[Emmdoubleu]

You handicappers make no sense to me. Why in the world would you guys like the Red Sox today. Schilling's 88 mph fastball is certainly not going to dominate Oakland's lineup. Blanton can also be ridiculous against a right handed dominant Red Sox lineup.

If you don't mind, please educate this idiot. The A's would ordinarily be a huge play for me in this spot....Help?

[Razz]

Well, its not exactly a GOY for me, but I was leaning that way because I think Schilling is back to being an above-average pitcher (always better when feeling pressure, and Yankees are suddenly on their heels) and he will dominate the impotent A's offense. I feel like Blanton has been pitching above his head, and is on the way to coming back to earth. Boston is great at home, and I just think they are a good value. Like I said, not a big play, and I was upset that E had 1.5* on other side. Honestly, I don't mind if they lose.

[newb411breaker19]

adding...
cards (suppan) over cubs (prior) +132

[newb411breaker19]

emmdoubleu i didn't bother playing this one only because schillings inconsistency. but if i were to play it id have to take sox because of their offense at fenway and schillings past performance against the yanks but this one i really couldn't get a feel for

[Emmdoubleu]

I have to parlay's I played big tonight and would humble post them here so we can all have a good laugh later tonight:

TCU Money line
TCU Over

Astros Run line
Braves
I pulled the A's from this one

[kdmfox]

Milwaukee -103
*LA Dodgers -106 *Best Bet on Baseball 9/15

[EBone]

Hey Emmdoubleu,

I just post my plays. My opinion is really no better than anyone else's. I just enjoy this forum a ton so I post my plays for the day because it is really fun to me. My plays are strictly based on statistical analysis I do. As you can see, Razz and I were both on the Mets today which was an absolute heartbreaker (I gotta quit watching games that I have money on......I can feel my blood pressure rising when something goes haywire like blowing a lead). If you looked last week, I was downright awful.

Honestly, if you keep up with the "Best Bets" part of the forum, my opinion is Razz and kdmfox are probably the best two as far as consistency is concerned. I noticed that bigpig19 was real good with college football last week as well. I think Illusion and I have our nights but we can also lose big as well.

I think a lot of us have our reasons for playing games. Razz actually writes up his reasons which is a great thing to do. As for me, I think I'm just too damn lazy to do it plus my reasons wouldn't make a whole lot of sense since my handicapping has to do with numbers and numbers alone. In baseball, I also factor in starting pitching with pitchers ratings to support my play as well.


By the way, Razz if you read this, I'd like to get your take on Mizzou this weekend. I saw that you are laying the chalk against Troy. My statistical handicapping says Mizzou by 11. That is strictly a number with zero motivation factored in. I know there is a huge motivational factor that should be factored into this game. My question is: how many points, in your opinion, should be factored into a college football game? If my line is correct, the bookie line of 20 would indicate a 9 point revenge/motivational factor factored into the line. My opinion is that that is a ton of motivation allowance in a line. Any comments on that? This game sort of reminds me of Hawaii/Michigan St last week where the revenge factor was huge but I think was overcompensated for in the line resulting in a value on Hawaii. Just an opinion.


E

[Razz]

That's a really interesting comparison, E. There is one reason I liked Missouri this week a little more than Michigan St. last week. While both teams had large revenge factors, Gary Pinkel is on the hot seat in Missouri, and nothing calms pressure like a blowout home win.

College football is so much different than the NFL, as you know. In certain situations, I think there are almost an unlimited number of points that can be handicapped into a game. I can't come up with any kind of exact number, though I think as many as 20 points could come into this game strictly from motivation, but I had Missouri 14 from a purely statistical point of view, plus another 3 or 4 for home field. My friend, who I have talked about in the past (who didn't want to put out the Brewers or Cardinals tonight; I had both), had a 5* on Missouri, while I had them listed as a 2*, before we combined plays.

Braves win. Good call on the A's (Don't want to talk too soon), E and MW. I'm glad I lost that one.

[Emmdoubleu]

I have to parlay's I played big tonight and would humble post them here so we can all have a good laugh later tonight:

TCU Money line
TCU Over

Astros Run line
Braves
I pulled the A's from this one

E, Razz, Newb...thanks for getting me home on the baseball parlay. To get all three of you on the same side of games I liked was enough reason for me to play this aggressively....Appreciate you guys taking the time to post your picks.

[EBone]

I think you are right, Razz. Both Missouri coaches, Pinkel and Quinn Snyder, are Mike Alden's guys (Mike Alden is the AD and the one who hired both). I think these coaches and this athletic administration's time is ticking. They need to win and they need to win now. I personally love Pinkel. I personally hate Snyder.

I'll respectfully disagree with you on the quantifying of motivation in terms of points. Doesn't mean I'm right; I just think that 9 points is a lot in motivation.

You are so, so correct about NFL. I'm so clueless in NFL........I think it is, by far, the toughest sport to handicap. That's why I'll never post an NFL pick in the Prick contest. It is just too difficult for me. In the past, for me, the statistical stuff has just not been real successful in predicting NFL. I'll stick to college and hopefully improve as the year goes by.

E

[EBone]

Emmdoubleu,

Nobody's laughing at you tonight. Cashing a parlay has got to be pretty sweet........ I don't play parlays because I'm too conservative with my money. Congrats.

E

[Razz]

E - Nice picks today. I don't necessarily assign a point value to motivation, but in college I do spend a good deal of thought on it. Also, Quinn Snyder looks like a prick to me, and I've never liked him either.

MW - Congrats on your parlay. You may get lucky on that other one in OT. I'll be rooting for you. I took a small bet on TCU +3.5.

[bigpig19]

i guess my opinion should be valued for what you think, but i would like to put in my two cents about the NFL and razz and i are friends and we disagree on this but i am a strong believer that the NFL is rigged. If you look at a line that has moved at least three points and take the side that it has moved agaist. That team covers an enormous ammount of time. Wait until 15 min. before the NFL kicks off and look at donbest.com click on NFL and odds. Look at the opener line and look at the current line. If it has moved 3 points take the other side. A friend of mine and I have started last year about middle of the season, and went something like 25-3. Oh ya, The NFL rigged factor went 6-0 last week. Just a thought, or a belief in my case. Good luck to all.

By the way, that TCU game is probably the worst refereeing job i have evr seen and they all need to be fired.

[Razz]

Boooooooooooooooooooooo.

[Razz]

I don't know what you're talking about. Ray Charles, Stevie Wonder, and Hellen Keller officiated that game well.

[EBone]

If the NFL is rigged, that would simply crush my world. I don't know if you're right, bigpig19, but I sure hope you are wrong.


E

[Illusion]

9/15 results:

newb411breaker19: 6-0 +7.05
EBone: 4-1 +3.47
Razz: 2-2 +2.64
kdmfox: 2-0 +2.00
Todd: 1-0 +1.00
wagles: 0-1 -1.10
acrking: 0-1