Please talk me out of Philly ML

[uxler]

• The Eagles get Vick and Maclin back.
• They are vastly more talented at every position offensively.
• They have to win out to have a chance at the playoffs.
• Reids job is on the line
• Andy Reid is undefeated out of bye weeks in Philly. Ten days rest here is a similar situation.
• Four weeks ago the Dolphins were winless and the Eagles were serious superbowl contenders.
• Despite his recent success, Bush is nothing more than a change of pace back and he faces the #2 run defense in the league here.
• Michael Vick has more rushing yards per game than both Bush and Thomas.
• Then youve got McCoy, arguably the best back in the NFL. The phins d is designed to stop the run. No one stops McCoy.
• Matt Moore is NOT a starting QB, again, despite his recent success. Just last year he had a 5/10 TD to INT ratio and posted a 16 to 17 ratio for his career heading into 2011.

This seems to me like a classic case of one team being overvalued based on a solid run and another driving their value into the ground with a horrific string of games. All that being said, I want to go big on the Eagles ML but I feel like maybe I'm missing something. Anyone on the other side that can talk me out of this?

[clevelandpride]

Philly ML was one of my leans too. You make a lot of good points, but I'd like to see if anyone says anything to make me change my mind

[PAULYPOKER]

The only time the Eagles played well this year was within their division..........

Miami by 8+

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

There's no reason why to back out of Philly ML. The Eagles finally get their play makers back on offense. I know this Eagles team has let down a lot of gamblers this season but don't be scared to take them tomorrow. This Miami team is a fraud. Reggie Bush has been getting lucky and even more Matt Moore. Moore is a backup QB at fukking best! How is this dude even winning games? Philly ML has some good value on it and I like the line. If the books thought Miami was going to win this game they'd set the line a bit higher than -3. That way Philly backers would jump all over the +4 or +5 that the books would of opened this game at. Setting a line at 3 is really mainly based on home field advantage. In other words Eagles and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched.

[PAULYPOKER]

There's no reason why to back out of Philly ML. The Eagles finally get their play makers back on offense. I know this Eagles team has let down a lot of gamblers this season but don't be scared to take them tomorrow. This Miami team is a fraud. Reggie Bush has been getting lucky and even more Matt Moore. Moore is a backup QB at fukking best! How is this dude even winning games? Philly ML has some good value on it and I like the line. If the books thought Miami was going to win this game they'd set the line a bit higher than -3. That way Philly backers would jump all over the +4 or +5 that the books would of opened this game at. Setting a line at 3 is really mainly based on home field advantage. In other words Eagles and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched.

They set the line like that so the public would bite on the Eagles ML rather than the ATS which exactly what is happening.......

[uxler]

Moore is a backup QB at fukking best! How is this dude even winning games?

How did I forget to mention this. Added to the list.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

How did I forget to mention this. Added to the list.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

They set the line like that so the public would bite on the Eagles ML rather than the ATS which exactly what is happening.......

Naw man. I think you're getting the wrong read on this one. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[zsr]

Can't believe people still think the eagles are a good team. All over Miami, gl though.

[Vortexx00]

Fish win by a FG

[uxler]

Can't believe people still think the eagles are a good team. All over Miami, gl though.

Care to share why you like Miami in this spot? Looking for a few good reasons not to play Philly, other than the same old "Philly sucks" and "Philly is overrated" bit. They may not be the dream team they claimed to be, but they are MUCH more talented than the Dolphins.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Can't believe people still think the eagles are a good team. All over Miami, gl though.

I never said Philly was a good team but Miami sure as hell isn't a good team. Both teams are evenly matched. So passing on Philly ML +135 isn't a wise move. Miami is a fraud.

[zsr]

Have you watched the dolphins since there atrocious start? They actually look like a team that can be in the playoffs, underrated defense, Reggie bush looks like a real running back. The eagles just continue to get to much respect by the books IMO. Like I said just my opinion, good luck, hope you win all your bets but this one haha

[zsr]

Care to share why you like Miami in this spot? Looking for a few good reasons not to play Philly, other than the same old "Philly sucks" and "Philly is overrated" bit. They may not be the dream team they claimed to be, but they are MUCH more talented than the Dolphins.

Don't let me talk you out of your play as I'm certainly not a sharp nor do I claim to be, go with what you think is the right play.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck on your plays as well except for this one

[PAULYPOKER]

Miami Dolphins is a runaway $$$$ train!!!!!!!!


I have been riding this train for 3 weeks in a row now................

They are the most dangerous spoiling team in the league.............

They are 4-1 in last 5 games and could of easily been 5-0 losing by 1 against overrated Dallas..........

Miami's 4-8 record is very deceiving to the public majority.............

Miami's defense is #1 in the NFL over the last 5 weeks...........

Matt Moore is steadily improving his play each week along with overall offensive production..........

Miami has outscored their opponents 139 to 54 in this 5 game stretch......

Bottom line>

Miami is capable of hanging with or defeating any team in the NFL...........
They might just win the rest of their remaining schedule....

Don't be fooled people, this Miami team is for real...................

[uxler]

Have you watched the dolphins since there atrocious start? They actually look like a team that can be in the playoffs, underrated defense, Reggie bush looks like a real running back. The eagles just continue to get to much respect by the books IMO. Like I said just my opinion, good luck, hope you win all your bets but this one haha

I have watched the Dolphins, and I admit, theyve looked surprisingly good. But 4 games does not change a much larger sample that says theyre bad.

Moore vs Vick
Bush vs McCoy
Maclin vs Marshall = even
Bess vs DJax
Fasano vs Celek

I dont get it.

[warriorfan707]

If you're begging people to talk you out of it that should be reason enough to stay away right there.

[uxler]

If you're begging people to talk you out of it that should be reason enough to stay away right there.

Its the reason I probably will stay away. Feel too good about it.

[aman86]

Love Philly money line!!

[SportGTI]

Miami has been an incredible run, playing very solidly for the past 5 weeks. But a closer look at the schedule reveals the following:

first win was week 8 vs Chiefs - Chiefs are anemic on offense and a shell of their playoff team from last year. Come on, the bills blew this team out as have many others

Next win was vs the Redskins - really? the skins?

Next was the Bills - the bills have fallen off the NFL map after a hot start. The Bills were getting destroyed by pretty much everybody

Lost to Dallas - the dolphins probably played one of their best games but could not put enough offense up to carry the victory

Beat oakland - Oakland is a terribly coached team being penalized almost 10 - 15 times per game. Plus they don't win on the East coast

Overall, the Dolphins have played well but I don't see them as blowing anybody out when it comes to a talented team. The Eagles have talent on offense and defense and I don't see a blowout at all. The Eagles will hang tough and I'll hope they pull out the fourth quarter victory today.

One last point: the dolphins are 1 - 2 against the NFC east this year. Two close losses to the giants and cowboys and solid victory (but no blowout) of the skins. This game will be close but the difference today is Vick.

Eagles +125 for me

[SportGTI]

Its the reason I probably will stay away. Feel too good about it.

Don't play a game because of others' opinions. You have several games to choose from and you need to find what is right for you. I like the Eagles today and am on the ML. But that's me. No games are locks and no game will be ever "easy". That's why its gambling.

BOL to whatever you decide

[uxler]

Happy to say I didnt talk myself out of this one.

[PAULYPOKER]

Good job,,late line movement made Miami a no play for me.........

[Goat Milk]

Miami Dolphins is a runaway $$$$ train!!!!!!!! I have been riding this train for 3 weeks in a row now................ They are the most dangerous spoiling team in the league............. They are 4-1 in last 5 games and could of easily been 5-0 losing by 1 against overrated Dallas.......... Miami's 4-8 record is very deceiving to the public majority............. Miami's defense is #1 in the NFL over the last 5 weeks........... Matt Moore is steadily improving his play each week along with overall offensive production.......... Miami has outscored their opponents 139 to 54 in this 5 game stretch...... Bottom line> Miami is capable of hanging with or defeating any team in the NFL........... They might just win the rest of their remaining schedule.... Don't be fooled people, this Miami team is for real...................

after all this, late money changes your mind. how incredibly stubborn you are

[Romocide]

Miami Dolphins is a runaway $$$$ train!!!!!!!!


I have been riding this train for 3 weeks in a row now................

They are the most dangerous spoiling team in the league.............

They are 4-1 in last 5 games and could of easily been 5-0 losing by 1 against overrated Dallas..........

Miami's 4-8 record is very deceiving to the public majority.............

Miami's defense is #1 in the NFL over the last 5 weeks...........

Matt Moore is steadily improving his play each week along with overall offensive production..........

Miami has outscored their opponents 139 to 54 in this 5 game stretch......

Bottom line>

Miami is capable of hanging with or defeating any team in the NFL...........
They might just win the rest of their remaining schedule....

Don't be fooled people, this Miami team is for real...................

After this glowing review, line movement makes it a no bet for you?? Hmmmmm...

[PAULYPOKER]

There is nothing more trusting than line movement...............

[uxler]

There is nothing more trusting than line movement...............

Usually agree with this...