What I feel is a great play. Cincinnati/Houston over 38.

[Urbanwildlife]

Steve Ryan made a excellent post on another thread in response to a post made by another member, and mentioned the over in this game. I looked at the stats, and came away believing it might be the best play of the week.
Also the forecast is for sunny skies and a temperature of 40.
Anyone else care to share there thoughts on it?

[Urbanwildlife]

Houston:
Wk Date Opponent Result Record Attendance 1 Sun Sep 11, 2011 Colts W 34-7 1-0 71,444 2 Sun Sep 18, 2011 @Dolphins W 23-13 2-0 51,032 3 Sun Sep 25, 2011 @Saints L 33-40 2-1 73,002 4 Sun Oct 2, 2011 Steelers W 17-10 3-1 71,585 5 Sun Oct 9, 2011 Raiders L 20-25 3-2 71,420 6 Sun Oct 16, 2011 @Ravens L 14-29 3-3 71,154 7 Sun Oct 23, 2011 @Titans W 41-7 4-3 69,143 8 Sun Oct 30, 2011 Jaguars W 24-14 5-3 71,412 9 Sun Nov 6, 2011 Browns W 30-12 6-3 71,511 10 Sun Nov 13, 2011 @Buccaneers W 37-9 7-3 56,037 11 --- BYE WEEK --- 12 Sun Nov 27, 2011 @Jaguars W 20-13 8-3 62,004 13 Sun Dec 4, 2011 Falcons W 17-10 9-3 71,545


Cincinnati:
Wk Date Opponent Result Record Attendance 1 Sun Sep 11, 2011 @Browns W 27-17 1-0 67,321 2 Sun Sep 18, 2011 @Broncos L 22-24 1-1 73,281 3 Sun Sep 25, 2011 49ers L 8-13 1-2 43,363 4 Sun Oct 2, 2011 Bills W 23-20 2-2 41,142 5 Sun Oct 9, 2011 @Jaguars W 30-20 3-2 61,799 6 Sun Oct 16, 2011 Colts W 27-17 4-2 52,068 7 --- BYE WEEK --- 8 Sun Oct 30, 2011 @Seahawks W 34-12 5-2 66,004 9 Sun Nov 6, 2011 @Titans W 24-17 6-2 69,143 10 Sun Nov 13, 2011 Steelers L 17-24 6-3 63,262 11 Sun Nov 20, 2011 @Ravens L 24-31 6-4 71,320 12 Sun Nov 27, 2011 Browns W 23-20 7-4 48,260 13 Sun Dec 4, 2011 @Steelers L 7-35 7-5 63,697

[letsgo]

Yates hasn't looked great, two solid defenses, not sure that this gets close to going over.

[LolsMcwinsey]

Im fading this loser

[Urbanwildlife]

Never thought I would also see the day that a guy would become infatuated with another guy on an internet forum, and it is obvious that you are with me since you seem to want to follow me. A sick dude.

[LolsMcwinsey]

You post loser after loser. So I fade and profit. Of course ill follow ur threads. How'd steelers work out for ya?

[rwd201]

Dude hes right
your gay as fuk

[Urbanwildlife]

You also picked the Steelers so what are you talking about? lol Continue your infatuation with another guy on the internet, and best of luck to you on your future bets. I learned it is best to ignore people/trolls like you who troll internet forums seeking attention. I did lose the Steeler game as many others did as well. It is called gambling, some you win, some you lose, and with no whining because I lost, I am up and looking forward to winning my bets this Sunday.

For the record, I believe the only NFL pick I actually posted on the forum and lost was the Steeler pick.

[LolsMcwinsey]

Please post all your plays for sunday

[Urbanwildlife]

Parlay of San Diego, New England, and a slot that is presently left open. 3 dimes.
Single wager on San Diego one and a half dimes.
Single wager on New England one and half dimes.

These are my plays.

[billysink]

Please post all your plays for sunday

For a guy who has been buried more times than a pirate's treasure you sure have a lot to say here.

Your posting history is pretty comical kid, I don't know how you think you should be bashing anyone for anything.

[rwd201]

wow you bet dimes
get a life

[Urbanwildlife]

I got one, and a damn good one at that! I much prefer to play dimes and place just a few bets, rather than play many with smaller increments of money. Not sure why you posted the comment you did rwd201, but good luck to you in your life, and in your future wagering. Nothing but good karma coming from Urbanwildlife.

@billysink, do not feed the trolls for the reasons I posted, they troll internet forums seeking attention, because they have no lives, or money, so in this particular case, this poster gambles vicariously through the bets of others.

[Love The Action]

Steve Ryan made a excellent post on another thread in response to a post made by another member, and mentioned the over in this game. I looked at the stats, and came away believing it might be the best play of the week.
Also the forecast is for sunny skies and a temperature of 40.
Anyone else care to share there thoughts on it?

I disagree with your assessment. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Nevertheless, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so I hope those don't happen. Other than those rare types of plays, however, I don't see this one going over the posted total.

Good luck on the rest of your plays

[Urbanwildlife]

I have re-evaluted my thoughts on this and agree with you LTA. Good luck to you as well! back at ya!

[Gilly86]

I got one, and a damn good one at that! I much prefer to play dimes and place just a few bets, rather than play many with smaller increments of money. Not sure why you posted the comment you did rwd201, but good luck to you in your life, and in your future wagering. Nothing but good karma coming from Urbanwildlife.

@billysink, do not feed the trolls for the reasons I posted, they troll internet forums seeking attention, because they have no lives, or money, so in this particular case, this poster gambles vicariously through the bets of others.

For someone who keeps saying not to feed the trolls, you sure like to feed them. You do realize if you don't reply to them at all and act as if they didn't post it's better right?

[billysink]

I disagree with your assessment. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Nevertheless, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so I hope those don't happen. Other than those rare types of plays, however, I don't see this one going over the posted total.

Good luck on the rest of your plays

That is about as bang on as it can get for a game analysis at this forum.

[SteveRyan]

I disagree with your assessment. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Nevertheless, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so I hope those don't happen. Other than those rare types of plays, however, I don't see this one going over the posted total.

Good luck on the rest of your plays

Great points he has made here. Obviously, LTA has been at this for a lot longer than myself.

Only thing I can really add here is that all of the Bengals games have gone over 38 this season with the exception of the week 3 game vs San Francisco. Coincidentally, the 49'ers have the best defense in the league....which reinforces everything LTA has said here.

I do not bet totals anymore, but I thought that 38 seemed kinda low for teams that score so well.

[thedirtybirds17]

I prefer the Houston ML on this game.

[Big Bear]

how come there is no love for the Bengals? They play 1 bad game and everyone writes them off? The Bengals need to win this game to get in the playoffs and they are at home facing a 3rd string QB.


is andre johnson playing?

[billysink]

That game against Pittsburgh was not just one of those things. The Bengals are missing their shutdown left corner Leon Hall (out for the year) and starting right corner Nate Clements missed that game as well. The Bengals were very susceptible to the big play and gave up a bunch of them.

They are in no better shape this week. Clements may not play again and it has been stated that if he goes he will be no better than 80%. Safety Chris Crocker is also playing on a bum knee.

The defensive line is also dinged and thin at NT. Domatu Peko is playing injured and his replacement is on IR.

I stated in my injury thread last week that this was not the same Cincinnati defense that was so dominant earlier this year.

We all know that Houston is dinged offensively with Yates in for Schaub and Andre Johnson out again. They are just going to pound those two stud running backs at Cinci all day because they trust their defense so much. And that is one hell of a defense right now.

What you are looking at is a repeat of last weeks game. Atlanta and Cincinnati mirror each other
as football teams. Tough 4/3 defences who stuff the run and hard running teams that try to establish the line of scrimmage before they pass. Now Houston faces the latter and may have an advantage of game planning for similar this week.

I see a lot of groundwork tomorrow and that Houston will not field the talent to expose the weakness in the secondary of Cincinatti.

This game is a crapshoot at best and the value appears in the total.

[takzilla]

no andre johnson's listed as out on espn

[Big Bear]

That game against Pittsburgh was not just one of those things. The Bengals are missing their shutdown left corner Leon Hall (out for the year) and starting right corner Nate Clements missed that game as well. The Bengals were very susceptible to the big play and gave up a bunch of them.

They are in no better shape this week. Clements may not play again and it has been stated that if he goes he will be no better than 80%. Safety Chris Crocker is also playing on a bum knee.

The defensive line is also dinged and thin at NT. Domatu Peko is playing injured and his replacement is on IR.

I stated in my injury thread last week that this was not the same Cincinnati defense that was so dominant earlier this year.

We all know that Houston is dinged offensively with Yates in for Schaub and Andre Johnson out again. They are just going to pound those two stud running backs at Cinci all day because they trust their defense so much. And that is one hell of a defense right now.

What you are looking at is a repeat of last weeks game. Atlanta and Cincinnati mirror each other
as football teams. Tough 4/3 defences who stuff the run and hard running teams that try to establish the line of scrimmage before they pass. Now Houston faces the latter and may have an advantage of game planning for similar this week.

I see a lot of groundwork tomorrow and that Houston will not field the talent to expose the weakness in the secondary of Cincinatti.

This game is a crapshoot at best and the value appears in the total.

good write up I will lay off that game.

[VTSandman]

If you simply look at defensive stats in this game, the logical course is the under. However, I feel these defensives will create some turnovers and short fields for the offenses. The over is the play here.

[NeverBackDown]

[SteveRyan]

Steve Ryan made a excellent post on another thread in response to a post made by another member, and mentioned the over in this game. I looked at the stats, and came away believing it might be the best play of the week.
Also the forecast is for sunny skies and a temperature of 40.
Anyone else care to share there thoughts on it?

The pick did cash. Over 38 it was.

Houston 20
Cincinn 19

[PAULYPOKER]

[SteveRyan]