I am seriously thinking of playing the Minnesota at Detroit -8 game this coming Sunday, and because I at times only see what I want to see, I would appreciate any quality input others might have. Much appreciated! 
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What is AP's injury status?Comment -
^^^ google?Comment -
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Not sure and that is probably why my book has not published a line on this game, even though Las Vegas has.Comment -
poor viks secondary vs stafford. could turn into a track meet and fast. viks might be able to play keep away with the run early. i do like ponder's passing ability if need be but he has been prone to rookie mistakes.Comment -
Christian Ponder has not yet been confirmed healthy enough to play with a hip pointer, that is the reason the line is delayed.
Stafford is going to shred that secondary. They do not have a healthy regular left. Keep a close eye on the Lion team total. I don't think they can set that high enough with an open of -8 on the side.Comment -
@billysink,
This is exactly the reason I am strongly considering playing Detroit for quite a large wager. I think the line has not been posted on the site I use not because of Ponder, as I read on the website Minneapolis StarTribune, that he will play, but Adrian Petersons status is up in the air. Thank you for posting your insight on this game though, as it is appreciated!Comment -
Most good books will not post a line until the after practice reports on Tuesday as it is the first mandatory declaration. That report lists Ponder as questionable and only limited participation in practice. Joe Webb will take most of the first team reps in practice tomorrow. The no line is for Ponder here. AP's status was accounted for last week and the line will adjust this week. He will be limited this week and no decision will be made perhaps until game time.
I will give you a complete take on the game when I get a little more information from practice this week. But that secondary is an awful mess. When I get the projecteds I will let you know.
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Thanks again billysink, and I also read that link you posted. I will appreciate your take on this game, so I will be looking forward to it.Comment -
waiting to hear about ponder and ap... i will pound detroitComment -
I wish they would fricking come out with a line! It is fricking annoying having to wait, as this line will have a big influence on what I want to do with my wagers.Comment -
Anyone have any updates on when the line is going to be put out on this game?Comment -
My guess is either after today's practice report and if not then, tomorrow's.
If Ponder is not 100% we may see Webb. Frazier has nothing to gain by throwing his future out there at this point.
Urban keep an eye on the Lion's NT situation as well. Fairley may not go as his foot is acting up again. With Suh out there is a great big hole in the middle of that line. That really affects the thin secondary as well. Without that interior push that Suh and Fairley have been supplying all year it really is going to be important that the cover schemes are blanket. I don't think Houston or Delmas is ready to play.
I know you really like this one but it is going to be tough to make a play on until the inactives come out on Sunday morning at noon.
I am waiting for the Lion's team total as badly as you are for the side. At the projected 8 points something in this one is going over.
Peterson news here
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thanks for the info billy and urban. these threads are always appreciated by me!Comment -
Thank you as usual for your great insight billysink. I have pretty much made up my mind to take this game no matter what, with it being played in Detroit, and the weak ass secondary of the Vikings. By the way, are you from the land of the Vikings?Comment -
No where near there Urban.
I am just a very thorough guy. I will dig this stuff up for every game on the schedule.Comment -
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Update from moments ago:
Source: Minneapolis StarTribune website
Christian Ponder's hip is stiffer today than the Vikings had expected, so the rookie quarterback won't be participating in practice at all today. Backup Joe Webb will take the first team reps, although the Vikings still do anticipate Ponder making his seventh NFL start on Sunday.
"All indications are [he will play]," coach Leslie Frazier said today. "A lot of it depends on what happens between now and Thursday, whether or not he improves, as at least our trainers expect him to."
Asked if he was concerned he wouldn't be able to play, Ponder said, "I'm not too concerned. I've been working ever since the game ended on Sunday with Eric Sugarman, our head [athletic] trainer. He's done a great job. There's been a lot of progress since it first happened. Monday, I was sore. Yesterday, I was sore. But today I feel better. So a big shout-out to Sugs for helping me out."
Ponder said he suffered the hip pointer -- the first one he's ever had -- when he took a direct shot from the helmet of a Broncos defender early in the first quarter.
"It is stiff," Ponder said. "It's your hip, but there's so much swelling everywhere. Everything that's attached to the hip is sore as well. It's not fun."
Although he's never had a hip pointer, Ponder said he's had experience playing after not practicing during the week. He said he had a rib injury at Florida State that caused him to miss all but the walkthrough the day before a game.
As for this week, Ponder said he should be able to get by without practicing that much.
"I"m going to do everything I can," Ponder said. "I don't know how much I'm going to be practicing this week. I'm going to try to be out there. Coach Frazier said I'm not going today, so I guess I'm not going today. But I'm going to try to be out there as soon as possible. When I'm not out there, I'm going to be taking mental reps and doing everything I can to prepare. I'm going to be watching a lot of film and everything.
"The good thing about [the Lions] is they're not too complicated on defense. They have great guys, great personnel, but they don't do anything too complicated. They don't do a lot of disguises, so I think it's kind of the perfect week to just watch film and not try to do anything too physical."
In other injury news, Frazier said:
- RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) will be limited in practice, if he practices at all.
- DE Brian Robison hasn't completed the league-mandated third-part concussion exam and will not be able to practice today. Frazier said it's too early to tell whether Robison would be a candidate for injured reserve.
- CB Asher Allen is expected to return after missing last week's game because of a shoulder injury.
- TE Visanthe Shiancoe will be limited because of a hand injury.
We'll give an update once practice has ended and the injury report has been issued.Comment -
good info gents.Comment -
Great job brother!!!
This is starting to sound a bit like the Freeman ruse in Tampa last week and I suspect the books got there ass handed to them posting a line on that game without the knowledge that Josh Johnson would start. They got beat badly on that game. They tried to swing the line to ease off the Carolina steam but never adjusted to cover. They cashed every ticket on played on the Panther side regardless of the number. That line moved 6 full points at some by close and it did not come close to being enough of a move.
They will not leave themselves to that position again this week.
Frazier is not gonna play Ponder unless he is 100%. It will be his job if that kid gets hurt worse or another injury trying to favor that one.
I bet we see Webb here, which is good for your position.Comment -
JESUS
It opened at -12. What a dead in the water number.
I hope you found a better number somewhere Urb.
Gonna definitely have to wait on this one.
47 the total.
Fukkin team total for the Lions is gonna be through the roof too.
I was really in love with that bet. Probably be 28.5Comment -
Sharp money drives it down to -11 in a hurry. They have been waiting for anything over 10 all week.
Bam in under the 10 already. Who knows where this one is going.
They are gonna turn this one into one big fat fukking donut.Comment -
Sun 12/11
113 Minnesota Vikings +10 -108 +440 Over 47 -108 10:00AM (PST)
114 Detroit Lions -10 -108 -600 Under 47 -108
Your thoughts???Comment -
Nothing at all on the total. Ponder is not gonna play by the looks of it. I think it is BS that they are saying he will play. Peterson probably does.
Kevin Smith probably sits for Detroit.
Lions secondary will be without Houston and Delmas. Fairley has not practiced all week either.
Only thing we can be sure of right now is that Detroit is gonna be able to go over the top at will.
They are gonna score 34 points minumum.
Can Minny score 24 with Joe Webb. My guess is no. I do not think we need to worry too much about Stafford throwing the ball to the guys in purple this week.
I like the 10 some here. I do not think the Vikes match up well on defense and I do not think they will field the personnel able to take advantage of a banged up Lions D.
What book do you play at if you do not mind me asking.Comment -
The book I consider the best in the business, "Heritage". I have nothing but great great things to say about them.
By the way, I just wrote my thoughts to a friend in an email, and wrote damn near exactly what you just posted, other than the fact I did not go as deep in to the injury reports. From other sources I heard Fairley will play for sure, which is an important part of my decision to bet on this game.
Do you feel it will go under 10? I personally do not see it happening. I am going to fill my parlay with either Detroit or New England. Again your thoughts as of today?Comment -
I would love to tell you to hammer Detroit. I got the scoop right off the field this time from a Detroit beat writer.
Fairley is gonna try it but any soreness at all he is done for the day just like last week. Any soreness between now and then and he is out.
I will say if Webb plays 10 is a good bet.
I have already put mine in @ 9.5 -122, paid for the half.
That is a real cheap price for a ton of insurance.
You like that two teamer? Put half your play on that and the other half on a 7 point shave.
Just one of those ones that is real tough to lay out on until all cards are on the table.
I would take Detroit -10 long before I would touch that New England side in anything.Comment -
I have one spot open on my parlay of the under in the Pittsburgh game, and Pittsburgh covering 14. I bought a half a point to bring the total to 40.Comment -
-buy the half on the Lions to go to 9.5.
No harm in a ton of insurance in case Ponder makes it to the dance.Comment -
I am kind of wishing I did not take the under, as everything I am reading here and elsewhere is focusing on the over. When I went and did my own due diligence, I came up with the under. I also see John Ryan giving his high rating of a ten to the over.
This is what I wrote on a thread starter here this morning regarding the over/under. At the time the over/under was 38.5 then moved to 39.5 where I bought a half and took the under at 40.
"This series has for the most part been a high-scoring series, as the over is 8-3-1 the last twelve times these teams have faced each other, and 7-1-1 over the total the last nine series meetings in Pittsburgh.
Those stats however are meaningless tonight, as Cleveland is pretty bad this season. They have scored 17-points or less in ten of their twelve games this year. It is a Cleveland team that has stayed under the posted total in six of their last eight games, including three of their last four.
Pittsburgh has played under the total in their last pair of games, and their defense has allowed just 16 total points in their last two games.
With the temperature expected to be in the low 20's this evening in Pittsburgh, I cannot see this game going over 38.5"
Wager Type : Parlay (3 team)
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 1,503.00 / 8,198.74(USD)
Accepted : 12/8/2011 8:52AM - PST
#1) Wager Type : Total
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : NFL Football / Game
Selection : Cleveland Browns/Pittsburgh Steelers
Time : 12/8/2011 5:25:00PM - (PST)
Line : Under 40 -120
Game Notes : (NFL)
#2) Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : NFL Football / Game
Selection : Pittsburgh Steelers
Time : 12/8/2011 5:25:00PM - (PST)
Line : -14 -110
Game Notes : (NFL)
#3) Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : NFL Football / Game
Selection : Detroit Lions
Time : 12/11/2011 10:00:00AM - (PST)
Line : -9½ -120Comment -
Never doubt your own work brother and never worry about what anyone else is on. You are your own man.
Most of these fuks on here don't know a damn thing about the games they are on. I think you saw me make that case yesterday.
This John Ryan guy does make some good plays and seems to be relatively well informed but you know what so do you. You are putting your work in and asking the right questions so let the chips fall where they may.
Good luck tonight and though the weekend.Comment -
Thank you for your kind words, and best of luck to you as well!
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