MNF total

dontbuythehook · 11-28-11, 02:06 AM

I don't think you can make deductions about how a game will be played out by correlating spread movement with how the total moves as well. But, I believe the game is going to be a shootout, and for your argument sake the fact that sportsinsights has 33% on the under with the saints at home on MNF, with over 50,000 bets placed on the game so far leads me to like the over a bit more here.

No coincidences · 11-28-11, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by dontbuythehook

I don't think you can make deductions about how a game will be played out by correlating spread movement with how the total moves as well. But, I believe the game is going to be a shootout, and for your argument sake the fact that sportsinsights has 33% on the under with the saints at home on MNF, with over 50,000 bets placed on the game so far leads me to like the over a bit more here.

You think that -- despite at least 67% of the bets on the over -- the line dropping a full point isn't significant?

I agree with what you're saying re: the correlation between side and spread, but I have a sneaking suspicion the Saints might roll here. I think I'm going to hit them up big 1Q and 1H and see where it goes from there.

dontbuythehook · 11-28-11, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You think that -- despite at least 67% of the bets on the over -- the line dropping a full point isn't significant?

I agree with what you're saying re: the correlation between side and spread, but I have a sneaking suspicion the Saints might roll here. I think I'm going to hit them up big 1Q and 1H and see where it goes from there.

Well when dealing with totals with the Saints @ home I'd expect, with a large amount of bets already documented, that the amount of people on the over here would exceed 75%. Movement on totals tends to happen more frequently IMO than spread, as you can see the total shifted a bunch of times from 51.5 to 50.5 to 51 while the spread remained solid @ 7 until about 30 minutes before SNF began. Chance of a backdoor here is likely along with saints holding a 10 point or greater lead for most of the game. Eli is as likely to **** saints backers as he is to choke on the final spread-ruining play. The people who like the giants are crazy and people who like the saints are also a little crazy, but I believe saints 1h is a great bet b/c giants haven't crushed any of their games early on and with all of these injuries I just don't see them hanging with NOR enough to cover the spread 1h. 2nd half is where itll get interesting though and I may switch it up, depending on some things obviously

No coincidences · 11-28-11, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by dontbuythehook

Well when dealing with totals with the Saints @ home I'd expect, with a large amount of bets already documented, that the amount of people on the over here would exceed 75%. Movement on totals tends to happen more frequently IMO than spread, as you can see the total shifted a bunch of times from 51.5 to 50.5 to 51 while the spread remained solid @ 7 until about 30 minutes before SNF began. Chance of a backdoor here is likely along with saints holding a 10 point or greater lead for most of the game. Eli is as likely to **** saints backers as he is to choke on the final spread-ruining play. The people who like the giants are crazy and people who like the saints are also a little crazy, but I believe saints 1h is a great bet b/c giants haven't crushed any of their games early on and with all of these injuries I just don't see them hanging with NOR enough to cover the spread 1h. 2nd half is where itll get interesting though and I may switch it up, depending on some things obviously

I can't argue with any of this. Unfortunately, the 1H line is very inflated. Might be good to go regardless though.

PAULYPOKER · 11-28-11, 10:01 AM

The line movement strategy does not work anymore coin,the industry has caught on to public perception, thanks to information highways such as this forum.........

PAULYPOKER · 11-29-11, 05:55 AM

Case and point...........