I'm NEVER betting OVER/UNDER ever again.

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  • SteveRyan
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-11
    • 1654

    #1
    I'm NEVER betting OVER/UNDER ever again.
    Betting on the total KILLED all of my bets this week.

    GB / UNDER
    Dallas / UNDER
    Baltimore / -3

    Baltimore vs Miami / OVER

    Arizona / ML
    Arizona vs St. Louis / UNDER

    New England / -3.5
    Saints / -7

    Carolina vs Indianapolis / UNDER

    Not only did it screw all of those picks, but if I had just bet spreads and money line this week I would have hit for 85%!!

    Look at my pics...

    GB / ML
    Miami / +7
    Baltimore / -3
    Arizona / ML
    Buffalo / +8
    Cleveland / +7
    Houston / -3.5
    Carolina / ML
    Tennessee / -3

    Minnesota / +9
    Oakland / ML
    Seattle / -3.5
    New England / -3
    Denver / +6


    I picked the totals with only 50% accuracy.

    Wont let that happen again.
  • SteveRyan
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-11
    • 1654

    #2
    If you're curious, I also had these picks:

    Kansas City / +10
    New Orleans / -6.5
    Comment
    • JMon
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-11-09
      • 9800

      #3
      I wish there were a emoticon blowing its head off!
      Comment
      • SteveRyan
        SBR MVP
        • 11-15-11
        • 1654

        #4
        Originally posted by JMon
        I wish there were a emoticon blowing its head off!
        Here ya go.








        I had similar problems last week but I didn't think that much of it. Now, I'm just playing spreads and ML for the rest of the season.
        Comment
        • suicidekings
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-23-09
          • 9962

          #5
          My football bets break down as about 98% sides, 2% totals. Gotta stick to what you're good at, and I just don't do well with totals.
          Comment
          • JMon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-11-09
            • 9800

            #6
            Thanks! You're the best!
            Comment
            • SteveRyan
              SBR MVP
              • 11-15-11
              • 1654

              #7
              Originally posted by suicidekings
              My football bets break down as about 98% sides, 2% totals. Gotta stick to what you're good at, and I just don't do well with totals.
              There were a couple of weeks where I was pickin em hot. Now I'm startin to think its a sucker bet.
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              • Koldazzice
                SBR MVP
                • 11-08-11
                • 2392

                #8
                more unders are going to start cashing with over inflated lines as the season goes on but I rarely do more than 1-2 units on totals but do 5-10 units on sides
                when I like a total I toss 50 bucks 100 bucks on it tops and keep my top plays as my sides.

                Sounds like you should be working that theory also

                GL on your future bets my friend
                Comment
                • SteveRyan
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-15-11
                  • 1654

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Koldazzice
                  more unders are going to start cashing with over inflated lines as the season goes on but I rarely do more than 1-2 units on totals but do 5-10 units on sides
                  when I like a total I toss 50 bucks 100 bucks on it tops and keep my top plays as my sides.

                  Sounds like you should be working that theory also

                  GL on your future bets my friend
                  Sounds like a plan. I may start messin around with teasers a little bit more also.
                  Comment
                  • SteveRyan
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-15-11
                    • 1654

                    #10
                    Originally posted by SteveRyan
                    If you're curious, I also had these picks:

                    Kansas City / +10
                    New Orleans / -6.5
                    Kansas City / +10

                    Can chalk that one up also.

                    Hot picks for me this week but made some betting errors.
                    Comment
                    • drfunkmaster
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-29-08
                      • 11162

                      #11
                      if you did a 10 pt teaser with all unders. EVERY GAME ALL DAY
                      Comment
                      • SteveRyan
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-15-11
                        • 1654

                        #12
                        Originally posted by drfunkmaster
                        if you did a 10 pt teaser with all unders. EVERY GAME ALL DAY
                        Imagine that!

                        I'm just gonna go the smart route now. Individual bets and lots of em. No totals unless I'm absolutely sure. If I parlay, it will be round robin and / or 2 leggers.
                        Comment
                        • drfunkmaster
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-29-08
                          • 11162

                          #13
                          Originally posted by SteveRyan
                          Imagine that! I'm just gonna go the smart route now. Individual bets and lots of em. No totals unless I'm absolutely sure. If I parlay, it will be round robin and / or 2 leggers.
                          my buddy hit a 15 teamer today 10 point teaser!!
                          Comment
                          • SteveRyan
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-15-11
                            • 1654

                            #14
                            Originally posted by SteveRyan
                            If you're curious, I also had these picks:

                            Kansas City / +10
                            New Orleans / -6.5
                            Kansas City / +10
                            New Orleans / -6.5


                            With these last 2, I picked spreads with 83.3% accuracy this week (10 out of 12).

                            Only spreads I missed were Minnesota +9 and Seattle -3.5.

                            Straight-up winner pics were 93.75% (15 out of 16).

                            Over/Under pics were 56.25% (9 out of 16).

                            I'll post my pics for week 13 on Thursday or Friday.
                            Comment
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