Just curious as to how some of you choose your parlays in the NFL. I've been doing the same strategies for some time now, and would like to hear some opinions and other perspectives.
Here is how I choose mine.
First, I do not think it is correct to go into it thinking to yourself, "This week I'm gonna make a 5 leg parlay." The problem with this approach is that you may only have 2 or 3 solid picks. This will force you scrounge together some other pics to fill up the parlay, where you will likely end up shoving some iffy pics into the picture in hopes of a winner.
What I do, is look at each and every individual match-up. I try to determine the absolute most intelligent way to bet the match so that it in itself will be a winner. For example:
Last week we watched Oakland vs Minnesota. Minnesota was favored -1 (Also a PK during the week) with the over at 45.
If we look ONLY at basic stats, we will see that Oakland is putting up about 27 points on the road this season; Minnesota is putting up about 26 at home. If we add these up, we get 53...so there's the over.
Oakland has been playing very well as of late, and better than Minnesota. Although Minnesota has lost most of their games, they are still scoring well!! So, the likely outcome is that Oakland will win in a high scoring game. I also consider, injuries, weather, short weeks, and other factors that may affect the outcome, but usually, I rely on basic stats, defensive and offensive rankings, and track record ATS (home and road). There were no indications that either team will score less than their averages. Oakland +1 (Or ML) / OVER
With most of the matches, I was not able to determine who will win, AND who will cover, AND what the total will be with strong confidence....but I can usually pick it apart and accurately get at least 1 of the three. Rarely all of it.
Then, after I have evaluated every match and determined the best way to bet each one, I choose which matches I feel confidently about. Next, I select from those, the ones I have even more confidence in....and keep doing this until I have selected my 2 or 3 highest confidence picks.
Of ALL the games from last week, these were the only 2 that I felt 100% confidence in. San Diego vs Chicago, Oakland vs Minnesota. Another match had a high confidence level for me also: Arizona vs San Francisco.
Oakland / ML
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER
Chicago / -3.5
San Diego vs Chicago / OVER
San Francisco / -9.5
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
Obviously, we could just slam all the pics onto one ticket and hope for the best. Problem is, if one of them fails, we lose it all.
The better approach, is to divide the picks into separate parlays.
1st parlay:
Oakland / ML
San Digeo vs Chicago / OVER
2nd parlay:
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER
Chicago / -3.5
3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5
So now, we have 2 very strong parlays here with the Oakland and Chicago matches divided up. Either team can lose or not go over, and we can still win one parlay. Only ways to lose is if both teams go under, both teams do not cover (OR win), or one team goes under and does not cover (or win).
Next, we have to fill up the Arizona vs San Francisco parlays. That's when the picks of a lesser confidence come into play. I was pretty sure that Carolina vs Detroit would go under and that Eagles vs Giants would go over, so I put those pics onto the remaining parlays.
3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
Panthers vs Lions / UNDER
4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5
Eagles vs Giants / OVER
If I felt really confident about any of these remaining pics, I probably would have built a 3 or 4 leg parlay on the other cards, but because of the match-ups that week, and my skill of evaluating the outcomes, it just was not logical to do so.
As it turned out, Giants went under and Lions went over. I won 2 and lost 2 = $187 positive. ($25 placed on each parlay).
So to summarize, I evaluate each match, determine the best way to bet each one, select the strongest pics, and build the most logical parlays based upon what I have to work with. If possible, I'll build a 3, 4, or 5 leg parlay, but I rarely get the opportunity to do so.
Here is how I choose mine.
First, I do not think it is correct to go into it thinking to yourself, "This week I'm gonna make a 5 leg parlay." The problem with this approach is that you may only have 2 or 3 solid picks. This will force you scrounge together some other pics to fill up the parlay, where you will likely end up shoving some iffy pics into the picture in hopes of a winner.
What I do, is look at each and every individual match-up. I try to determine the absolute most intelligent way to bet the match so that it in itself will be a winner. For example:
Last week we watched Oakland vs Minnesota. Minnesota was favored -1 (Also a PK during the week) with the over at 45.
If we look ONLY at basic stats, we will see that Oakland is putting up about 27 points on the road this season; Minnesota is putting up about 26 at home. If we add these up, we get 53...so there's the over.
Oakland has been playing very well as of late, and better than Minnesota. Although Minnesota has lost most of their games, they are still scoring well!! So, the likely outcome is that Oakland will win in a high scoring game. I also consider, injuries, weather, short weeks, and other factors that may affect the outcome, but usually, I rely on basic stats, defensive and offensive rankings, and track record ATS (home and road). There were no indications that either team will score less than their averages. Oakland +1 (Or ML) / OVER
With most of the matches, I was not able to determine who will win, AND who will cover, AND what the total will be with strong confidence....but I can usually pick it apart and accurately get at least 1 of the three. Rarely all of it.
Then, after I have evaluated every match and determined the best way to bet each one, I choose which matches I feel confidently about. Next, I select from those, the ones I have even more confidence in....and keep doing this until I have selected my 2 or 3 highest confidence picks.
Of ALL the games from last week, these were the only 2 that I felt 100% confidence in. San Diego vs Chicago, Oakland vs Minnesota. Another match had a high confidence level for me also: Arizona vs San Francisco.
Oakland / ML
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER
Chicago / -3.5
San Diego vs Chicago / OVER
San Francisco / -9.5
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
Obviously, we could just slam all the pics onto one ticket and hope for the best. Problem is, if one of them fails, we lose it all.
The better approach, is to divide the picks into separate parlays.
1st parlay:
Oakland / ML
San Digeo vs Chicago / OVER
2nd parlay:
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER
Chicago / -3.5
3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5
So now, we have 2 very strong parlays here with the Oakland and Chicago matches divided up. Either team can lose or not go over, and we can still win one parlay. Only ways to lose is if both teams go under, both teams do not cover (OR win), or one team goes under and does not cover (or win).
Next, we have to fill up the Arizona vs San Francisco parlays. That's when the picks of a lesser confidence come into play. I was pretty sure that Carolina vs Detroit would go under and that Eagles vs Giants would go over, so I put those pics onto the remaining parlays.
3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
Panthers vs Lions / UNDER
4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5
Eagles vs Giants / OVER
If I felt really confident about any of these remaining pics, I probably would have built a 3 or 4 leg parlay on the other cards, but because of the match-ups that week, and my skill of evaluating the outcomes, it just was not logical to do so.
As it turned out, Giants went under and Lions went over. I won 2 and lost 2 = $187 positive. ($25 placed on each parlay).
So to summarize, I evaluate each match, determine the best way to bet each one, select the strongest pics, and build the most logical parlays based upon what I have to work with. If possible, I'll build a 3, 4, or 5 leg parlay, but I rarely get the opportunity to do so.
BUMP!
