Thanksgiving day locks

[troynewell47]

is there any?

[thebestthereis]

yes, i will make an absolute slob of myself and be drunk before noon

[troynewell47]

what are they !!!

[thebestthereis]

one play for me, ravens

[Serbone]

Detroit +6, BIG. Home division short week holiday dog on AT that has played superior schedule (#2 vs # 30) that needs a win and has high powered offense and the one thing that can beat GB... an up the middle (AT) pass rush, too much speed for GB OL, a 10-0 team that is banged up and does NOT need a win. Time for letdown. Detroit straight up by 10.

Baltimore -3, BIG. AFC powerhousethat has played tougher schedule (# 17 vs # 29) home night (cold for foo foo west coast team?) game on holiday national TV, Ravens need a win, against a 9-1 team that does not need a win. On AT, helps Baltimore with speed cuts vs. SF used to NT cuts, timing, etc. Torrey Smith changes the Baltimore "O" with deep speed, opens it up for Boldin and Rice. Ravens "O" is finally clicking, and "D" is first rate and will cause turnovers. ROMP by 17.

Mia-Dall, stay away. Dallas is playing well, on AT, short road week for Miami but Miami has its act together, key CB back, Moore playing much better, OL healthy. OK, lean to Miami + 7.

(save time; ask Serbone!)

[Stevedore]

Detroit +6, BIG. Home division short week holiday dog on AT that has played superior schedule (#2 vs # 30) that needs a win and has high powered offense and the one thing that can beat GB... an up the middle (AT) pass rush, too much speed for GB OL, a 10-0 team that is banged up and does NOT need a win. Time for letdown. Detroit straight up by 10.

Baltimore -3, BIG. AFC powerhousethat has played tougher schedule (# 17 vs # 29) home night (cold for foo foo west coast team?) game on holiday national TV, Ravens need a win, against a 9-1 team that does not need a win. On AT, helps Baltimore with speed cuts vs. SF used to NT cuts, timing, etc. Torrey Smith changes the Baltimore "O" with deep speed, opens it up for Boldin and Rice. Ravens "O" is finally clicking, and "D" is first rate and will cause turnovers. ROMP by 17.

Mia-Dall, stay away. Dallas is playing well, on AT, short road week for Miami but Miami has its act together, key CB back, Moore playing much better, OL healthy. OK, lean to Miami + 7.

(save time; ask Serbone!)

Just like Minnesota on Monday night Serb. BTW, your avatar sucks, damn WAR CRIMINAL!! GO CROATIA!!! Jedi Govna

[Serbone]

Just like Minnesota on Monday night Serb. BTW, your avatar sucks, damn WAR CRIMINAL!! GO CROATIA!!!

Then take GB and SF and lose your ass.
I had NE big last nite, Philly big Sun nite, etc. Look it up, dweeb.
Yep, Minny sure stunk it up last week, I do not hit 100%, do you?
Follow me, you will make money.
(he won a war against muslims, all wars are the same, sh*t happens in every one, he was singled out, set up, framed, religious-global politics)

[SteveRyan]

Detroit +6, BIG. Home division short week holiday dog on AT that has played superior schedule (#2 vs # 30) that needs a win and has high powered offense and the one thing that can beat GB... an up the middle (AT) pass rush, too much speed for GB OL, a 10-0 team that is banged up and does NOT need a win. Time for letdown. Detroit straight up by 10.

Baltimore -3, BIG. AFC powerhousethat has played tougher schedule (# 17 vs # 29) home night (cold for foo foo west coast team?) game on holiday national TV, Ravens need a win, against a 9-1 team that does not need a win. On AT, helps Baltimore with speed cuts vs. SF used to NT cuts, timing, etc. Torrey Smith changes the Baltimore "O" with deep speed, opens it up for Boldin and Rice. Ravens "O" is finally clicking, and "D" is first rate and will cause turnovers. ROMP by 17.

Mia-Dall, stay away. Dallas is playing well, on AT, short road week for Miami but Miami has its act together, key CB back, Moore playing much better, OL healthy. OK, lean to Miami + 7.

(save time; ask Serbone!)

Any predictions on the totals for these games?

I like Baltimore at -3 even though I got em locked at -3.5 / over. I think you saw my thread.

[Stevedore]

Then take GB and SF and lose your ass.
I had NE big last nite, Philly big Sun nite, etc. Look it up, dweeb.
Yep, Minny sure stunk it up last week, I do not hit 100%, do you?
Follow me, you will make money.
(he won a war against muslims, all wars are the same, sh*t happens in every one, he was singled out, set up, framed, religious-global politics)

Just messing with you... I like Detroit as well, not playing it though; crazy to fade GB right now. I don't trust Baltimore, their offensive coordinator is terrible; forgets about Ray Rice to often. Teasing SF and getting 10.5 points is to good to pass up IMO.(He wasn't set up at all, war brings about bad things, but slaughtering innocents is going to far.) GL on your plays

[Serbone]

Any predictions on the totals for these games?

I like Baltimore at -3 even though I got em locked at -3.5 / over. I think you saw my thread.

OVER in the GB-Detroit game.
GB is the best team in the league, but will not be fired up for the whole game. 10-0. Just like TB game. SO on defense, the primary thing to look at in an over under where motivation is an issue, they will allow more points BY FAR than if these two teams were tied at 7-3 for the Division.
The OL will not let Rogers get slaughtered, that is an honor thing, though I think Detroit will get to Rogers more than Rogers is accustomed.
But Rogers will get his 28-35 pts, and Detroit will get 30-40 pts.
Sure, national TV... but in their hearts GB knows they can get into the playoffs and even win the division by winning just 1 or 2 of the last 6.
But the whole game Detroit will be desperate, they need to win 4 of last 6, give or take.
And you have two TOP QB's, in a dome, both with top notch receivers... in a league that has handcuffed the DB's with new rules that are strictly to the receiver's benefits.
Thats why early in the yr, whenever you had two top QB's the game went over 90% of the time.
As it got colder, windier, and the over under #'s went up... it was not as good a proposition.
But this is in a dome.
And both teams throw high % of the time, do not run the ball as a primary strategy.
OVER 55 GB-Detroit, BIG.
(no opinion on other two, yet, watch for weather, cold, wind)

[GamblerSpirit]

Ravens under. Looks good.

[Serbone]

Just messing with you... I like Detroit as well, not playing it though; crazy to fade GB right now. I don't trust Baltimore, their offensive coordinator is terrible; forgets about Ray Rice to often. Teasing SF and getting 10.5 points is to good to pass up IMO.(He wasn't set up at all, war brings about bad things, but slaughtering innocents is going to far.) GL on your plays

NO, it IS the time to fade GB, 10-0, for awhile, especially in this spot against a motivated solid holiday home game short week division dog with a strong "O" and upper echelon QB and a unique up the gut pass rush on AT.
Look how many points GB allowed to TB, and how sloppy they were; if it was 4-5 weeks ago, GB would have beat TB 40-10.
GB knows that it only needs to win a game or two to win the division or at least get into the playoffs. I had TB + 14... not sure if I posted it.
GB is the best in the NFL at this point... bar none... but time to fade them again this week.
If they lose, then perhaps get on them again next week.
(I do not condone what happened... but it happens in most ALL wars, they were victims to similar atrocities in the past, do some reading, most never came to the public eye, but in this day and age there are cameras and reporters and cell phones...no more on this discussion, please)

[zoso11871]

I don't think there are any 'locks' on Thursday...so I took a 'Thanksgiving Teaser'...

Detroit/Green Bay Over 45.5
Dolphins +17
49ers +13

I'll probably put a few bucks on the Detroit moneyline as I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game.

[Stevedore]

NO, it IS the time to fade GB, 10-0, for awhile, especially in this spot against a motivated solid holiday home game short week division dog with a strong "O" and upper echelon QB and a unique up the gut pass rush on AT.
Look how many points GB allowed to TB, and how sloppy they were; if it was 4-5 weeks ago, GB would have beat TB 40-10.
GB knows that it only needs to win a game or two to win the division or at least get into the playoffs. I had TB + 14... not sure if I posted it.
GB is the best in the NFL at this point... bar none... but time to fade them again this week.
If they lose, then perhaps get on them again next week.
(I do not condone what happened... but it happens in most ALL wars, they were victims to similar atrocities in the past, do some reading, most never came to the public eye, but in this day and age there are cameras and reporters and cell phones...no more on this discussion, please)

This is true, but you are leaving out one VERY IMPORTANT FACT, SF has only ONE LOSS! GB needs to keep winning for home field advantage, to say they won't be up for this is DEAD WRONG on your part. Detroit can win this game for sure, but your analysis as to why they will is seriously flawed IMO. Also, this is a revenge spot for GB, and Rodgers will want to win this game badly because of him getting knocked out of last years game. The Tampa game is starting to look like a look ahead if you ask me; they blew out Minnesota, and were coming off a short week; they will be very focused for Detroit.

[meader99]

I do not have a great feel for this game with the exception that it is the Packers 3rd game in 10 days. One thing I know for sure, the Packers will be well prepared like they have been since the end of last year. McCarthy, Rodgers and the veterans on this team will ensure that the mental aspect of the game is always tended to. The Lions may well win, but it won't be due to lack of preperation on the Packers behalf.

[loopydude11]

10 pt, 3 tm teaser

GB/DET over 45.5
Bal/SF over 28.5
Cowboys +3

[dontazeme1]

10 pt, 3 tm teaser GB/DET over 45.5 Bal/SF over 28.5 Cowboys +3

dont like this at all, definite LOSER

[Serbone]

This is true, but you are leaving out one VERY IMPORTANT FACT, SF has only ONE LOSS! GB needs to keep winning for home field advantage, to say they won't be up for this is DEAD WRONG on your part. Detroit can win this game for sure, but your analysis as to why they will is seriously flawed IMO. Also, this is a revenge spot for GB, and Rodgers will want to win this game badly because of him getting knocked out of last years game. The Tampa game is starting to look like a look ahead if you ask me; they blew out Minnesota, and were coming off a short week; they will be very focused for Detroit.

That is one small point.
At this time of the season, the players are not very motivated by home field advantage. The idiot announcers will say so, but not true.
It is a minor factor, the perrtainent factors I pointed out are major.
GB players are happy as hell to be 10-0, even though they are pros, there is a letdown... like TB... trying to stay healthy, get to the playoffs.... so until they lose 2 straight up, then they will get fired up and blow somebody off the field by 30.
Its not who you play, but WHEN you play them.
Hey, bet on the Packers, your home team, go down the sh*tter with them this game. They are a great team, you can win some bets on them later in the year.
But for this game, I say:
Detroit + 6, BIG.

[NFL49ers]

I already booked

Lions +6
Ravens -3(-120)

4 Team Par
Lions, Over
Ravens, Over


Ravens is my biggest play. I will add some more for sure before the game.

[GamblerSpirit]

I already booked

Lions +6
Ravens -3(-120)

4 Team Par
Lions, Over
Ravens, Over


Ravens is my biggest play. I will add some more for sure before the game.

WTF?

Shouldn't you be rolling with the Niners, and why the over exactly?

[ManBearPig]

yes, i will make an absolute slob of myself and be drunk before noon

I second this

[SteveRyan]

I already booked

Lions +6
Ravens -3(-120)

4 Team Par
Lions, Over
Ravens, Over


Ravens is my biggest play. I will add some more for sure before the game.

I'm already locked in on all of this except for Lions +6.

With the kind of points that GB has been puttin up lately, 6 points seems kinda irrelevant.

[Stevedore]

That is one small point.
At this time of the season, the players are not very motivated by home field advantage. The idiot announcers will say so, but not true.
It is a minor factor, the perrtainent factors I pointed out are major.
GB players are happy as hell to be 10-0, even though they are pros, there is a letdown... like TB... trying to stay healthy, get to the playoffs.... so until they lose 2 straight up, then they will get fired up and blow somebody off the field by 30.
Its not who you play, but WHEN you play them.
Hey, bet on the Packers, your home team, go down the sh*tter with them this game. They are a great team, you can win some bets on them later in the year.
But for this game, I say:
Detroit + 6, BIG.

They're my team but I don't play them blindly, only 3 times this year. When this line came out I instantly liked Detroit based off GB's performance against Tampa; I'm starting to waver though. They came out flat especially on defense after the first quarter when their offense gave them a 14 point lead; in short, this defense gets complacent because the offense is so dominant and teams end up getting back in the game. GB knows Detroit is explosive on offense, so they'll get GB's best effort defensively; not as dominant against Minnesota because they are on the road and not the performance against Tampa, but something in between, in the range of 17-28 points not the 30-40 you say. Is Carolina's offense better then GB's? What will GB score, 45+? McCarthy said after the Tampa game that he knew going in that the Tampa game would be a "Hump" game (Translation..Look-Ahead), and that's exactly how it played out. There will be no look ahead here as this team wants to go undefeated, Woodson has said as much publicly and Rodgers feels the same way. If they get beat it won't be because of motivation but rather the disadvantage of facing a good opponent on the road in a very short week; that's what make this game tough to cap. GB is clearly the better team, but can they overcome this difficult spot; don't think it's as easy as you're making it out to be. The Minnesota game should have warned you that fading this team comes with risks because they are so talented.

[Aussports]

heres some Locks
det +6
sf +3
dallas -7

all the way to the bank

[DerekMadden]

Det +6/Dal-7 Parlay = Money

[SteveRyan]

Ravens under. Looks good.

Wish I had listened to you. Screwed up my whole parlay.

Green Bay / Under
Dallas / Under
Ravens -3
Ravens OVER!!