Bragging about my NFL picks

[Kufta4]

I know I'm going to get pounded in here for this but I'm going to post it for fun anyway.

My friend and I had been working on a prediction formula for college football. That hasn't gone so well (the last time we applied it to CFB we went something like 13-30 ish) but when we applied it to the NFL, its been a little freaky.

This will be the 3rd week we've been applying the formula.

I told him that one good week is a coincidence. 2 weeks is lucky but 3 weeks might be a trend.

Including last nights game, the formula has a record of 25-4. I haven't bet any of the games (as I don't trust it yet however he claims he has made a good amount of money off of it.). I told him after 3 weeks of insane results then I will THINK about trusting it.

Now I know it's easy to call bull and I don't blame you. After this weekend, if this is still this successful, I will post the picks or come back and say it was a load of crap and it was all a coincidence.

25-4 is still impressive though.

[mp5070]

Whats your pick for this Sunday?

[GenosPicks]

AWESOME BRO.. when and where do they go up?

in the meantime.. would love to know your thoughts on my four remaining NFL picks this week (already nailed the OAK +7 last night) as a long suffering Chargers fan, that was pretty obvious.


Geno's week 10 video

http://www.sbrforum.com/nfl-football/free-picks/nfl-week-10-picks-geno-a-21993/

[Kufta4]

Just checked how it did for this week and unfortunately the formula went 7-8 with tonights game still to go.

This mean that either this week was an off week or the 2 previous weeks were coincidences. I guess next week will shed a little more light on that question.

Like I said I haven't been betting them yet but I can give you what tonights play is according to the file.

PICK: Minnesota Vikings +13

The formula says that line is off by 2.8 points in favor of Minnesota. Personally I don't like it but that's what it says.

[Kufta4]

It went 9-3 this week. It had the Chiefs and I disagreed with that pick. I still liked the Eagles and I disagreed with that one too so I guess that's a wash.

Week 8 - 12-2
Week 9 - 12-2
Week 10 - 7-8
Week 11 - 9-3 (2 teams pushed this week)

YTD (since week 8 which is when we completed this particular formula) - 40 wins - 15 losses

I'll post the picks next week before the games start hopefully.

We will also break it down at some point to see if there are any trends (if that's the right word).

[Kufta4]

Here are the picks for this week. I finally found the time to post them before hand.

We found errors in the data so the above records are actually incorrect. Since week 5 we are 55-35 (61%). As the year progresses we expect it becomes more accurate.

I will give you this weeks picks and the spread our file says the spread should be. For example, if Vegas has the Cardinals getting points but our file says they should actually be giving, the pick would be the Cardinals. Our file says that the Bills should be getting less than vegas is giving them so you would take he Bills. (Vegas line in ( )) If the lines change then you'll be able to detect the change below.

Cardinals -1.2 (+3)
Bills +3.9 (+8)
Bears -1 (+4.5)
Bengals -7.2 (-7)
Broncos +3.9 (+6)
Lions +0.3 (+6)
Texas -5.8 (-3)
Colts +2.3 (+3.5)
Chiefs +4.9 (+10)
Dolphins +4.4 (+6.5)
Vikings +7 (+9)
Saints -7 (-6.5)
Eagles +0.6 (+4)
49ers -0.2 (+3)
Titans -7.2 (-3)
Redskins +2.9 (+4.5)

Now what we'd like to do is search for trends inside of the data but these are this weeks picks. Last week we went 9-3.

[Kufta4]

Keep in mind major injuries though too. The Bear's line doesn't factor Cutler's injury. The file had the Eagles picked last week without DJack, Maclin and Vick but they won anyway so take it for what its worth.

[Kufta4]

Updated results with final lines (Jaguars pick changed because of line movement)


Arizona Cardinals -1.19 (+2.5) WIN
Buffalo Bills 3.91 (+9.5) WIN
Chicago Bears -1.04 (+3) LOSS
Cincinnati Bengals -7.19 (-7) WIN
Denver Broncos 3.87 (+4.5) WIN
Detroit Lions 0.30 (+6) LOSS
Indianapolis Colts 2.33 (+3.5) LOSS
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.76 (+6.5) LOSS
Kansas City Chiefs 4.9 (+10) Tonight
Miami Dolphins 4.36 (+6.5) WIN
Minnesota Vikings 6.95 (+10) PUSH
New Orleans Saints -7.02 (-6.5) Monday
Philadelphia Eagles 0.59 (+4) LOSS
San Francisco 49ers -0.17 (+3) LOSS
Tennessee Titans -7.20 (-3) WIN
Washington Redskins 2.94 (+3) WIN

7-6-1 with 2 games to go. Not very good.

[SteveRyan]

Updated results with final lines (Jaguars pick changed because of line movement)


Arizona Cardinals -1.19 (+2.5) WIN
Buffalo Bills 3.91 (+9.5) WIN
Chicago Bears -1.04 (+3) LOSS
Cincinnati Bengals -7.19 (-7) WIN
Denver Broncos 3.87 (+4.5) WIN
Detroit Lions 0.30 (+6) LOSS
Indianapolis Colts 2.33 (+3.5) LOSS
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.76 (+6.5) LOSS
Kansas City Chiefs 4.9 (+10) Tonight
Miami Dolphins 4.36 (+6.5) WIN
Minnesota Vikings 6.95 (+10) PUSH
New Orleans Saints -7.02 (-6.5) Monday
Philadelphia Eagles 0.59 (+4) LOSS
San Francisco 49ers -0.17 (+3) LOSS
Tennessee Titans -7.20 (-3) WIN
Washington Redskins 2.94 (+3) WIN

7-6-1 with 2 games to go. Not very good.

Dude I killed you this week!!

GB / ML
Miami / +7
Baltimore / -3
Arizona / ML
Buffalo / +8
Cleveland / +7
Houston / -3.5
Carolina / ML
Tennessee / -3
Minnesota / +9
Oakland / ML
Seattle / -3.5
New England / -3
Denver / +6

Too bad I bet totals with all my bets and lost everything

[Kufta4]

Wow, that's awful. I think we'll eventually work on totals but the Chiefs were another win at least. 8-6-1.

Dude I killed you this week!!

GB / ML
Miami / +7
Baltimore / -3
Arizona / ML
Buffalo / +8
Cleveland / +7
Houston / -3.5
Carolina / ML
Tennessee / -3
Minnesota / +9
Oakland / ML
Seattle / -3.5
New England / -3
Denver / +6

Too bad I bet totals with all my bets and lost everything

[cmle123]

u can mess total if u have good reason. when i look at total. i find it very sharp then the ats. ats there is more base and able find value. over and under is hard find good value but i find it here there.

[SteveRyan]

u can mess total if u have good reason. when i look at total. i find it very sharp then the ats. ats there is more base and able find value. over and under is hard find good value but i find it here there.

I'm just playing spreads with a few 2 leg parlays for the rest of the season.