Week 9 Play: San Francisco -4

[GunShard]

My record for this season:
Straight bets: 3-0 ATS
2 team 6 point teaser: 0-2 ATS

-3.5 if you got the line earlier this week.

1. The Redskins are missing key players from injuries.
Their best running back Tim Hightower is not playing.
Their best wide receiver Santana Moss is not playing.

2. The 49ers best pass rushing line against the Redskins poor offensive line, John Beck was sacked 9 times last week against the Bills.
49ers pass rushers this season: Aldon Smith 6.5 sacks, Justin Smith 4.5 sacks, Ahmad Brooks 4.0 sacks.

3. 49ers have a 6-0 ATS record while the Redskins have a 3-4 ATS record. The 49ers are on a 5-0 winning streak, the Redskins are on a 0-3 losing streak.

4. The Redskins have a QB problem between Rex Grossman 55.76% Comp / 6 TD / 9 INT and John Beck 58.82% Comp / 1 TD / 3 INT.
49ers have the better QB in Alex Smith 63.19% Comp / 9 TD / 2 INT.

5. Even though Redskins have home advantage. The grass outdoor stadium of the Redskins is the same as the grass outdoor stadium of the 49ers.

[klrqn]

already on this one

[KingJD31]

i think frisco is a lock and im a beast in locks

[MOONCRICKET]

the only games worth betting on this weekend are SD, WAS, and Indy - all 3 home dogs - the more people disagree the more i know i am right - thats why i love this forum - i use it every weekend to crush nfl games after listening to newbies bark about how much they love their locks. all those stats you quoted in the first post are available to the oddsmakers also, buddy. and so knowing all that why do you figure the line was set at 4' then within 10 minutes drop like a stone to 3'? you what it takes right? it takes about a million dollars in cash bet on washington 5 days before kickoff - the guys who love san fran wont be making their $25 bets until sunday.

who do you want to bet with? i'm not into making a lot of noise and i usually stay out of these threads but i just couldnt resist this time.

this is the nfl fellas.....teams as horrible as the skins beat teams as good as the niners every week. if you are looking for why my answer is banks in the return game, landry stopping davis, and hankerson getting loose deep twice for scores. no one can cover him and if you dont believe me now - you will come about 2:30pm sunday...and when wash is up 14-3 and you have to get alex smith to pass your way back to the cover all i can say is good luck.

indy
wash
sd
cle
nyg

5dogs barkin - the more you hatem the more i lovem

[lilrushc8]

MOONCRICKET, I know that in football anything is possible and anyone can win on any given Sunday, but you are really talking reckless. The 49ers are the better team and would win this game 90% of the time. I am not saying it is a LOCK, but there is a much better chance that they win then the Redskins. Cmon man, forget the money movement, talk about the two football teams!

[wilwin]

this is the nfl fellas.....teams as horrible as the skins beat teams as good as the niners every week. if you are looking for why my answer is banks in the return game, landry stopping davis, and hankerson getting loose deep twice for scores. no one can cover him and if you dont believe me now - you will come about 2:30pm sunday...and when wash is up 14-3 and you have to get alex smith to pass your way back to the cover all i can say is good luck.

Banks has done nothing this year and looks to have regressed. Vernon Davis has done nothing numbers wise all year and they are still rolling teams.

Redskins are horrible against the run and all the Niners do is run all over people. If you stack the box, Harbaugh is creative enough with his play calling to pick up enough first downs to move the ball.

Don't understand how you can bet on John Beck against the best defense in the NFL. He's going to turnover the ball a couple of times tomorrow and the 9ers simply don't turn the ball over. The Skins offense isn't explosive enough to be up by double digits and force Alex Smith to win the game for them.

[hitman09]

yeah, 49ers are much better than Was now, but tomorrow Was defensive line have 1 turnover, 2 intercepts and lost the game resulted Was 17 - San Francisco 20, same way like the Giants did last week.

[KingJD31]

mooncricket if you bet on all 5 of those games please dont bet alot cause you will lose

[KingJD31]

everyone comment on mooncrickets after he loses 3 out of 5 tomarow cause hes trying to be one of those betters who tries to prove there smarter than everyone but in reality your gonna lose money

[GunShard]

Mooncricket, I know about the advantage to home dogs. Washington is the least likely to win it out of the teams you just listed.
I say San Diego has a better chance to cover the spread than Washington.

The public can be wrong and the public can be right.

Remember when the Patriots dominated the Dolphins in Week 1? The public dumped most of their money on the Patriots and covered the spread.

[pickemtowinem]

no one mentioning that a west coast team, is travelling to play at 1pm on the east coast.

gimme the skins' ats all day.

[GunShard]

The 49ers won all of their east coast games this season.

[kp126]

no one mentioning that a west coast team, is travelling to play at 1pm on the east coast. gimme the skins' ats all day.

your not mentioning that the west coast team that is being mentioned is also 3-0 on the road and if im not mistaken @philly @cincy @det(pretty good teams).

My guess 23-10 SF.

[pickemtowinem]

then id say they are due for a time zone adjustment.

skins cover the line at home.
are they 3-0 ats?

[BigDan]

under where it really at in this gm...."sharps" playing trends and the home dog, wasnt shocked big money ate up 4.5 fast on skins, this got low scoring defensive battle all over it..still dont feel like skins can score enough here but at same time i could see a 13-10, 17-14 type gm easily. either way you shake it seems like it gonna take a lot of things going wrong for this to go over..

[xjumpintwit]

My record for this season:
Straight bets: 3-0 ATS
2 team 6 point teaser: 0-2 ATS

-3.5 if you got the line earlier this week.

1. The Redskins are missing key players from injuries.
Their best running back Tim Hightower is not playing.
Their best wide receiver Santana Moss is not playing.

2. The 49ers best pass rushing line against the Redskins poor offensive line, John Beck was sacked 9 times last week against the Bills.
49ers pass rushers this season: Aldon Smith 6.5 sacks, Justin Smith 4.5 sacks, Ahmad Brooks 4.0 sacks.

3. 49ers have a 6-0 ATS record while the Redskins have a 3-4 ATS record. The 49ers are on a 5-0 winning streak, the Redskins are on a 0-3 losing streak.

4. The Redskins have a QB problem between Rex Grossman 55.76% Comp / 6 TD / 9 INT and John Beck 58.82% Comp / 1 TD / 3 INT.
49ers have the better QB in Alex Smith 63.19% Comp / 9 TD / 2 INT.

5. Even though Redskins have home advantage. The grass outdoor stadium of the Redskins is the same as the grass outdoor stadium of the 49ers.

dude ... anybody can copy and paste from espn lmfao .. get some real statistics other than what is said in the preview .... like san fran away stats vs washingtons home stats ... oh and btw next time include the ats records for the teams that might be helpful

[jrgarza88]

Give me Redskins here.. perfect spot

[k13]

MOONCRICKET, I know that in football anything is possible and anyone can win on any given Sunday, but you are really talking reckless. The 49ers are the better team and would win this game 90% of the time. I am not saying it is a LOCK, but there is a much better chance that they win then the Redskins. Cmon man, forget the money movement, talk about the two football teams!

If the 90% was true the ML would be a lot higher.

[MOONCRICKET]

the only thing worse than a guy who can't pick winners is the same guy when he runs and hides after losing. i am having a very rough day - i know the skins, browns, colts all suck - we all knew that - somehow i am 22-18 going into this week in the hilton contest by using the very same terrible teams plus points- 22-18 isnt great and after today i will likely be 22-23. and i feel like s%^t about it - believe me - i put so many hours into this - it has become life/death for me - and right now i just feel like a total fool - it hurts -mentally, physically and emotionally. all year i was able to avoid the disastrous week. now i need the giants and the chargers just to salvage a 2-3 day. being that i used the same philosophy for all 5 picks - it looks likely that i will be 0-5 at days end and it is just gut-wrenching.

but i am here. win lose or draw. on my worst day. feeling like an idiot. but i just gotta stand here and take my lumps. so go ahead fellas - tell me what a moron i am - i wouldn't expect anything less.

i apologize for polluting your thread with such moronic filth.

[loopydude11]

the only thing worse than a guy who can't pick winners is the same guy when he runs and hides after losing. i am having a very rough day - i know the skins, browns, colts all suck - we all knew that - somehow i am 22-18 going into this week in the hilton contest by using the very same terrible teams plus points- 22-18 isnt great and after today i will likely be 22-23. and i feel like s%^t about it - believe me - i put so many hours into this - it has become life/death for me - and right now i just feel like a total fool - it hurts -mentally, physically and emotionally. all year i was able to avoid the disastrous week. now i need the giants and the chargers just to salvage a 2-3 day. being that i used the same philosophy for all 5 picks - it looks likely that i will be 0-5 at days end and it is just gut-wrenching.

but i am here. win lose or draw. on my worst day. feeling like an idiot. but i just gotta stand here and take my lumps. so go ahead fellas - tell me what a moron i am - i wouldn't expect anything less.

i apologize for polluting your thread with such moronic filth.

you're such a moron.

haha kidding dude, relax and get it back tonight/tomorrow or next week. you'll be fine

[pickemtowinem]

grats' to the 49er backers!

[GunShard]

the only thing worse than a guy who can't pick winners is the same guy when he runs and hides after losing. i am having a very rough day - i know the skins, browns, colts all suck - we all knew that - somehow i am 22-18 going into this week in the hilton contest by using the very same terrible teams plus points- 22-18 isnt great and after today i will likely be 22-23. and i feel like s%^t about it - believe me - i put so many hours into this - it has become life/death for me - and right now i just feel like a total fool - it hurts -mentally, physically and emotionally. all year i was able to avoid the disastrous week. now i need the giants and the chargers just to salvage a 2-3 day. being that i used the same philosophy for all 5 picks - it looks likely that i will be 0-5 at days end and it is just gut-wrenching.

but i am here. win lose or draw. on my worst day. feeling like an idiot. but i just gotta stand here and take my lumps. so go ahead fellas - tell me what a moron i am - i wouldn't expect anything less.

i apologize for polluting your thread with such moronic filth.

Not a problem. Everyone caps games differently.

For me, I prefer to gather as much physical evidence as possible. The stats I posted where from the Covers website. The more edges the 49ers get the mostly they cover the spread. In which they did.

[GunShard]

San Francisco - 19
Washington - 11

Congrats to all the 49ers backers!

[GunShard]

I should make more detailed write up like I did on this thread.

It's rare to see a team have dominating factors with a small point spread at -4.
This was one of the best rare bets of the 2011 NFL season.

[kp126]

I should make more detailed write up like I did on this thread.

It's rare to see a team have dominating factors with a small point spread at -4.
This was one of the best rare bets of the 2011 NFL season.

The niners have been good value all season for the most part. The public just hasn't trusted them because of the last decade of crap.

[GunShard]

I should have posted the following at the top of this thread to show people I'm not deceiving my record. I'm 4-0 on straight bets after this one.

My Straight Bets: 3-0 ATS

Week 4 Play:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...oit-2-5-a.html WIN

Week 5 Play:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...over-49-a.html WIN

Week 6 Play:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...ore-7-5-a.html WIN

My Teasers: 0-2 ATS

Week 7 Play:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...am-teaser.html LOSE

Week 8 Play:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...am-teaser.html LOSE