San Fran to win Superbowl +1500.

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  • odog11
    SBR MVP
    • 02-14-11
    • 3874

    #1
    San Fran to win Superbowl +1500.
    Not saying it will happen, but no way they should be +1500 considering they are very likely to go into the playoffs with a bye. Packers are the anointed ones, but nothing is guaranteed and it will take a great defense to beat them, Bears were fairly close to doing it last year. I don't see a powerhouse coming out of the AFC to meet them if they get there.

    This reminds me of last year when I saw the Mavericks(they had 2nd best record in West at the time) at +1200 to win the western conference while everyone was just assuming the Lakers would win it.
  • Mr Handicapable
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-23-07
    • 6067

    #2
    SF should be +15,000 and I don't care if they get the 2 seed. They're a nice story and they have a good defense but reality will sink in when we get to January. Philly missed 2 short FGs...either one wins the game. They got a 4th down play vs Detroit and squeaked by the Bengals too. It will probably be Detroit or Philly that comes in there and crushes them in their 1st playoff game.
    Comment
    • k13
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 07-16-10
      • 18104

      #3
      Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
      SF should be +15,000 and I don't care if they get the 2 seed. They're a nice story and they have a good defense but reality will sink in when we get to January. Philly missed 2 short FGs...either one wins the game. They got a 4th down play vs Detroit and squeaked by the Bengals too. It will probably be Detroit or Philly that comes in there and crushes them in their 1st playoff game.
      Sounds like someone who lost a lot of money betting against the Niners.

      Yeah it's going to be just as easy as when the Saints went to Seattle....

      Worry about Philly and Detroit making the playoffs first.
      Comment
      • k13
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 07-16-10
        • 18104

        #4
        Those are shitty odds now OP. I have them +10000 and not sure why people buy teams "high" when they should be buying "low"

        All the value is sucked out. Go look at Cowboys at +5000 right now....that number will drop huge the next few weeks.
        Comment
        • Lock Of The Aeon
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-16-11
          • 184

          #5
          I don't believe San Francisco is for real. They will probably win 11+ games because of their division, and they may well get a bye, but it won't matter. They are not an elite team.
          Comment
          • k13
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-16-10
            • 18104

            #6
            So if someone gave you Steelers +1.5 vs Niners

            What would you do?
            Comment
            • Allure
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-18-10
              • 7606

              #7
              Originally posted by k13
              So if someone gave you Steelers +1.5 vs Niners

              What would you do?
              We pound the shit outta the Niners, coach!
              Comment
              • odog11
                SBR MVP
                • 02-14-11
                • 3874

                #8
                Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                SF should be +15,000 and I don't care if they get the 2 seed. They're a nice story and they have a good defense but reality will sink in when we get to January. Philly missed 2 short FGs...either one wins the game. They got a 4th down play vs Detroit and squeaked by the Bengals too. It will probably be Detroit or Philly that comes in there and crushes them in their 1st playoff game.
                Maybe, but if San Fran is hosting it in the 2nd round I will just hedge this play or maybe even not depending on how I see the game. Point is, if they get the bye you can hedge the bet if you want or just let it ride.

                I say there is still value at 15-1 on the team with the 2nd best record in the league, if they beat Washington it should move a bunch. You will have a 7-1 team that has played a respectable scheduelle with a much easier 2nd half.
                Comment
                • zsr
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-01-10
                  • 4117

                  #9
                  Originally posted by k13
                  Those are shitty odds now OP. I have them +10000 and not sure why people buy teams "high" when they should be buying "low" All the value is sucked out. Go look at Cowboys at +5000 right now....that number will drop huge the next few weeks.
                  Wouldnt +1500 still be decent for hedging in the playoffs though? You can still guarantee yourself a profit, especially with a team that is probably getting a bye.
                  Comment
                  • CarloTwoGuns
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-09
                    • 1024

                    #10
                    hmm interesssting indeeed
                    Comment
                    • Producer2627
                      Restricted User
                      • 02-15-11
                      • 333

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                      SF should be +15,000 and I don't care if they get the 2 seed. They're a nice story and they have a good defense but reality will sink in when we get to January. Philly missed 2 short FGs...either one wins the game. They got a 4th down play vs Detroit and squeaked by the Bengals too. It will probably be Detroit or Philly that comes in there and crushes them in their 1st playoff game.
                      Its the great teams that know how to get the win, no matter how ugly it is. Pittsburgh Steelers are infamous for this. The two times they went to the superbowl and won it they squeaked by teams all the time. Plenty more of superbowl teams that squeaked by wins.. Thats what makes a team great or terrible. For example, Carolina this year they could be a great team and ppl would be all over the panthers about how great they are if they were able to execute on the close games.... Its all about clutch and discipline and the 49ers have showed it and prove they are a good team. And I would be willing to bet all your SBR points that 49ers make it to the NFC championship.. You down to bet??
                      Comment
                      • ikamoku
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 03-24-10
                        • 263

                        #12
                        I agree
                        Originally posted by odog11
                        Maybe, but if San Fran is hosting it in the 2nd round I will just hedge this play or maybe even not depending on how I see the game. Point is, if they get the bye you can hedge the bet if you want or just let it ride.

                        I say there is still value at 15-1 on the team with the 2nd best record in the league, if they beat Washington it should move a bunch. You will have a 7-1 team that has played a respectable scheduelle with a much easier 2nd half.
                        Comment
                        • GunShard
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-05-10
                          • 10031

                          #13
                          It's possible for the Packers to play against the 49ers at the NFC championship.
                          Comment
                          • dlunc3
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-31-09
                            • 9129

                            #14
                            mavericks had Dirk.... niners have alex smith
                            Comment
                            • k13
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 07-16-10
                              • 18104

                              #15
                              Originally posted by zsr
                              Wouldnt +1500 still be decent for hedging in the playoffs though? You can still guarantee yourself a profit, especially with a team that is probably getting a bye.
                              Borderline enough...

                              That's assuming they get a bye. Oddsmakers are giving them a lot of credit right now so if it continues the lines will be good to hedge.

                              You guys need to start grabbing these teams when they are losing.

                              Niners 100-1
                              Eagles 40-1
                              Lions 50-1
                              Cowboys 50-1
                              Chiefs 250-1
                              Steelers 30-1

                              Hard to lose money like that.
                              Comment
                              • BigDan
                                Restricted User
                                • 04-28-11
                                • 5104

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Lock Of The Aeon
                                I don't believe San Francisco is for real. They will probably win 11+ games because of their division, and they may well get a bye, but it won't matter. They are not an elite team.

                                Who exactly do you consider "elite" in the nfc? GB of coarse but then who? whoever you say next sf is more than capable of beating..no one gives this team any credit because their offense isnt "sexy" but no matter how badly nfl is trying to legislate defense out of the league a team that can play it like sf will be a tough out for anyone..
                                Comment
                                • k13
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 07-16-10
                                  • 18104

                                  #17
                                  Niners have given up 0 rushing TD's this year. Think about that.
                                  Comment
                                  • zsr
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-01-10
                                    • 4117

                                    #18
                                    Did you get the chiefs when they were 0-3? Nice
                                    Comment
                                    • k13
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 07-16-10
                                      • 18104

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by zsr
                                      Did you get the chiefs when they were 0-3? Nice
                                      No.

                                      That was actually the line before the Chargers game at the greek.
                                      Comment
                                      • k13
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 07-16-10
                                        • 18104

                                        #20
                                        If you guys want to hedge, Grab the cowboys at 50-1. I'm serious. Look at the schedule...

                                        9 Nov 06 SEA @ DAL Cowboys Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 707 85 (SEA)
                                        117 (DAL) 10 Nov 13 BUF @ DAL Cowboys Stadium 1:00 PM Tickets CBS 704
                                        11 Nov 20 DAL @ WAS FedExField 1:00 PM Tickets FOX 709
                                        12 Nov 24 MIA @ DAL Cowboys Stadium 4:15 PM Tickets CBS
                                        13 Dec 04 DAL @ ARI University of Phoenix Stadium 4:15 PM Tickets FOX 714
                                        Comment
                                        • zsr
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-01-10
                                          • 4117

                                          #21
                                          Wow. I need to start betting futures, ive never gotten into it just because i dont like keeping money offshore long term. Seems like great opportunities here even for small wagers.
                                          Comment
                                          • Lock Of The Aeon
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 10-16-11
                                            • 184

                                            #22
                                            I agree you should buy teams low, but it's hard to do sometimes. You have to be prepared to lose your ticket if your team's stock never goes back up. But the risk/reward is worth it.

                                            San Francisco was a great bet at +10000, at +1500 not so much.
                                            Comment
                                            • slacker00
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-06-05
                                              • 12262

                                              #23
                                              I wouldn't bother with any future that pays less than 30-1. Even then, I'll only throw a minimum bet on it. Too much hold.
                                              Comment
                                              • k13
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 07-16-10
                                                • 18104

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Lock Of The Aeon
                                                I agree you should buy teams low, but it's hard to do sometimes. You have to be prepared to lose your ticket if your team's stock never goes back up. But the risk/reward is worth it.

                                                San Francisco was a great bet at +10000, at +1500 not so much.
                                                Yup, not all of them will hit and some will be complete duds so it should be a small % of your BR.

                                                Almost like buying stocks but with teams. NHL is very good for this. NBA completely pointless.
                                                Comment
                                                • Mr Handicapable
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-23-07
                                                  • 6067

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by k13
                                                  Sounds like someone who lost a lot of money betting against the Niners.

                                                  Yeah it's going to be just as easy as when the Saints went to Seattle....

                                                  Worry about Philly and Detroit making the playoffs first.

                                                  I don't think I bet a 49ers game this year. I just don't like Harbaugh....he's an arrogant prick and the Lions coach should've punched him in the face...I would have if he shoved me in the back like that. Everyone is overreacting because they stole a few games early....lets see what they do when Alex Smith turns into himself. QBs don't suddenly get much better after 5-6 years in the league.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mr Handicapable
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-23-07
                                                    • 6067

                                                    #26
                                                    All these NFC teams won't make the playoffs but they're all better than SF

                                                    Green Bay, Philly, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      +1500 is actually short, no value at all.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mr Handicapable
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 09-23-07
                                                        • 6067

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                        +1500 is actually short, no value at all.

                                                        Exactly! Harbaugh is a good coach but they're still short on talent...especially in the passing game. Their D is good but Romo had his season high of 345 yards against them and Philly put up 513 total yards on them. NOBODY puts up 500 yards on a great defense!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Weeton
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 10-10-11
                                                          • 102

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                                                          Exactly! Harbaugh is a good coach but they're still short on talent...especially in the passing game. Their D is good but Romo had his season high of 345 yards against them and Philly put up 513 total yards on them. NOBODY puts up 500 yards on a great defense!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 4TH AND STUPID
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-08-09
                                                            • 2349

                                                            #30
                                                            the best future is houston to win the AFC at +750

                                                            they have a joke of a schedule remaining and are guaranteed almost to get a first round bye.

                                                            then they just have to win 1 home game against a crappy afc team and then it comes to 1 game.







                                                            san fran sucks i wouldnt buy them at +5000

                                                            they have first game exit written all over them. alex smith is not playoff material. not 1 bit
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FreeFall
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-20-08
                                                              • 3365

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by k13
                                                              Those are shitty odds now OP. I have them +10000 and not sure why people buy teams "high" when they should be buying "low" All the value is sucked out. Go look at Cowboys at +5000 right now....that number will drop huge the next few weeks.
                                                              you are buying at the wrong time. Wait till they lose a few. That price sucks.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • k13
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 07-16-10
                                                                • 18104

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by FreeFall
                                                                you are buying at the wrong time. Wait till they lose a few. That price sucks.
                                                                So you think Seahawks beat the Cowboys?

                                                                Comment
                                                                • odog11
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-14-11
                                                                  • 3874

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by FreeFall
                                                                  you are buying at the wrong time. Wait till they lose a few. That price sucks.
                                                                  See, they aren't going to lose a few, at least not till it doesn't matter. They should have the bye and be around +750 when the playoffs start. +1500 was the last "best price" for San Fran.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • k13
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 07-16-10
                                                                    • 18104

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by FreeFall
                                                                    you are buying at the wrong time. Wait till they lose a few. That price sucks.
                                                                    What price sucks?

                                                                    Niners 100-1 or Dallas 50-1

                                                                    ........................................ .................................

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BettingWizard
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 11-28-09
                                                                      • 6522

                                                                      #35
                                                                      +1500 is a good bet if they somehow get home field and/or GB gets upset in the first game. They are a dog their next game though, so they'll probably be +2000 or better if they lose to Balt
                                                                      Comment
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