Do Colts Have a Chance to Win SU This Week???

BettingWizard · 10-17-11, 07:03 PM

colts winning

rwd201 · 10-17-11, 07:04 PM

The saints might have thrown that game vs TB or tried to shave points and failed who knows
but there in no position to lose outright this week @home

brahmabull117 · 10-17-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

colts winning

Yea u laugh until you realize the fukking saints lost 2 games last year by double digits to the browns and cardinals (one by 13 at home)

seriously though, what are the chances of the colts winning this game SU?? Is it less than 10 percent??

Goat Milk · 10-17-11, 07:05 PM

why are you posting this on Monday? No one cares until Friday lol

BettingWizard · 10-17-11, 07:06 PM

3%...saints had an off year last year

rwd201 · 10-17-11, 07:07 PM

BTW
who you got tonight brah
miami+6.5 or NYJ-6.5

brahmabull117 · 10-17-11, 10:11 PM

so what's the consensus here?? colts don't have better than 5% chance to win right??

rwd201 · 10-17-11, 10:14 PM

they have an 11.72% chance of wining

brahmabull117 · 10-17-11, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by rwd201

they have an 11.72% chance of wining

srs???

GunShard · 10-17-11, 10:41 PM

The Colts lost to the Saints with Peyton Manning at the super bowl.

Just imagine without Peyton Manning and at the New Orleans super dome.

Saints money line is the best play here.

EBDOGGN · 10-17-11, 11:07 PM

dont quote me on this but i heard of a stat a few days ago. that when an nfl team is a double digit dog, they've only won straight up a number of times in the last ten years. literally like 10 or less wins.. sure they'll cover the spread. But read re read this post clearly. WHEN AN NFL TEAM IS A DOUBLE DIGIT DOG, THEY HAVE ONLY WON A NUMBER OF TIMES (10 OR LESS) IN THE LAST 10 YEARS.

Take it for what its worth..

If anyone can bust this stat. please update us asap. I would hate for this statement to be false.

loopydude11 · 10-17-11, 11:22 PM

Brah this is the easiest play to put in a 13 pt teaser of the week, -1 on sunday night football in the superdome is unquestionably a lock

brahmabull117 · 10-18-11, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by EBDOGGN

dont quote me on this but i heard of a stat a few days ago. that when an nfl team is a double digit dog, they've only won straight up a number of times in the last ten years. literally like 10 or less wins.. sure they'll cover the spread. But read re read this post clearly. WHEN AN NFL TEAM IS A DOUBLE DIGIT DOG, THEY HAVE ONLY WON A NUMBER OF TIMES (10 OR LESS) IN THE LAST 10 YEARS.

Take it for what its worth..

If anyone can bust this stat. please update us asap. I would hate for this statement to be false.

actually, it seems like the number is much lower

This article - covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=249757 - claims that only six double-digit underdogs have won outright in the last 20 years.

mlfan · 10-18-11, 05:03 AM

past 10 years, double digit dogs have a 42-255-0 straight up record.

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Stevedore · 10-18-11, 05:12 AM

Best thing to happen for your play was the Saints lost last week. After 3 consecutive games on the road, the Saints are in a great spot to win and win BIG!.

EXpertcapper · 10-18-11, 07:44 AM

colts will keep it close but saints win but not cover

BettingWizard · 10-18-11, 05:29 PM

saints win by 28 points. Painter has no chance in the dome

D3 Mighty Ducks · 10-18-11, 06:52 PM

Naw the Colts have very little chance of winning on Sunday night in NO. Jacksonville has a small chance of beating the Ravens I think.

brahmabull117 · 10-18-11, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Naw the Colts have very little chance of winning on Sunday night in NO. Jacksonville has a small chance of beating the Ravens I think.

I actually think the jags have a much lesser chance of beating the ravens than the colts do

the problem with a team like new orleans is that brees can throw 4 picks at anytime and lose a game in which the saints outgain a badteam by 200 yards (you saw it last year both vs arizona and vs cleveland)

the ravens won't allow their QB to play like that because they will just take the ball out of his hands and win with defense and the run game

Romanov · 10-18-11, 08:33 PM

According to Pinny, Colts have a 12.1% chance of winning SU

Brahma, heres how you do:

100/(704+100) = Colts unadjusted probability of winning = .123
900/(900+100) = Saints unadjusted probability of winning = .9

.9 +.1234 /= 1, so we know these probs must be adjusted to = 1 so add them:

.9+.1234 = 1.0234

Then take the teams unadjusted from the total...

.1234/1.0234 = 12.1% = Colts prob of winning SU according to Pinny

ryan1200 · 10-18-11, 08:36 PM

Sorry... They're already in Andrew Luck Mode

Statsational · 10-18-11, 08:37 PM

I was checking the numbers a couple of weeks ago for my survivor pool and only 3 teams have won SU in the last 16 years as a 14 pt dog. It was 14 or 14.5 I do not recall as I do not have my database on this machine. I can double check that for you. I think the last one to lose was Pitt in 09 to Oak at home. I remember the game vividly because my entry in a big survivor pool for my grandmother got knocked out that day.