EricZ116 Season Thread

[EricZ116]

Had some success last year, made a thread earlier in the year and had a few bad weeks. Have been off the boards, but I've begun to turn things around a bit and am going to get back to posting and tracking my picks here. Going to try and lay off the teasers because I know they are a losing proposition in the long run (even though every one I do always seems like a lock )

Already locked in:

Patriots -7 (2 units)
Patriots -6.5 (1 unit)
Dolphins +7.5 (3 units)
Browns +7.5 (1 unit)
Bills +3.5 (1 unit)
Eagles/Redskins over 47 (1 unit)

NCAA teaser: Purdue +17, under 46 (1 unit)

Leans:
49ers +4
Panthers +4
Colts +7.5
Vikings +3 (maybe ML)
Dolphins/Jets under 42.5
Browns ML

If anyone wants to ask me why I've made any of these bets or like these certain games, feel free to post. I'd love to discuss any games.

[EricZ116]

Hit the NCAA teaser. I'm playing a few more NCAA plays, but not going to post bc they aren't my plays - just tailing RAS totals.

So far:
1-0, +1.05 units

As far as NFL goes, I won't be playing Browns ML and am really cooling off of them with Haden and Mack out. May put something on Oakland -7.5 at +110 but will most likely let it ride.

May load up on the Pats even more, I'm not scared off by the line movement at all.

[EricZ116]

Adding: 1.5 units on Ravens -7, 1 unit on Vikings +2.

Have this for fun parlay:
Stanford -20 (hit)
Oregon SU
Dolphins +7.5
Pats, Ravens, Steelers, Packers SU
1 unit to win 8.2 units

Couldn't help myself with this teaser:

Pats -.5, Saints -.5, Vikings +7.5, Jets -1.
3 units to win 7.95

[shopbar picks]

Teaser questions. (6pt) Would you tease the pats/boys to over 49. The rams to +21.5 . Pitt to-6. Thanx

[EricZ116]

No, I wouldn't. With an offense like Green Bay's, I don't think there is really that much of a difference between 15 and 21 as ****** up as that sounds. Steelers are banged up and may take this one easy vs a shitty Jags team, allowing them to finish inside a TD. Pats/boys over should hit, but I don't love teasing o/u's. I'd REALLY avoid that teaser, and I'm sorry if it ends up hitting and I talked you out of it.

[EricZ116]

Adding: Colts/Bengals over 40.5 (2 units)

[EricZ116]

4-2 on straight up plays so far with the Vikings still on board.

If the Fins cover 7.5, will win 8 units - may hedge. Thoughts?

[shopbar picks]

very good advice. put in the the complete opposites, and it hit. thanx SBP

[EricZ116]

Went 4-4, recovered some Fins losses by hedging a parlay Monday night.

Don't have a great feel for the games this week, going to keep the plays low.

Falcons +4 (1 unit)
Packers -7.5 (3 units, -115 earlier in the week)

Parlay:
Colts +14, Ravens ML, Packers ML
1 unit to win 2

Teaser:
Broncos +7.5, Packers -2.5, Ravens -1.5
3 units to win 4

[EricZ116]

Parlay: Steelers -3 (-148), Packers ML
2 units to win 1.93

For fun parlay:
Panthers ML, Browns ML, Texans +3, Broncos ML, Falcons +4, Rams +14.5, Packers ML, Ravens ML
.25 units to win 12.25 units

[EricZ116]

Should I try and make a live bet on the Cowboys to hedge that parlay?

[EricZ116]

Can't miss college play (imo)
Stanford -280, Wisconsin -290 parlay
4 units to win 3.3

Stanford -300 (earlier in week), Michigan -500, Baltimore Ravens -850
5 units to win 3.9