Niners +6 at Detroit

yD · 10-10-11, 11:31 PM

I'm done taking dogs against the "elite" teams. Especially on the road. College or pro, the best teams continue to cover. Most of the time.

Balco10 · 10-10-11, 11:37 PM

Vegas has the line set perfect to get get half and plus juice.
Lions will not win all of their games. This might be a let down.

superblaaze · 10-10-11, 11:40 PM

that line is +5 already

Balco10 · 10-10-11, 11:40 PM

The question is, are the Niners better then the Bears???

loopydude11 · 10-10-11, 11:41 PM

Niners ML? i'm tempted

No coincidences · 10-10-11, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by yD

I'm done taking dogs against the "elite" teams. Especially on the road. College or pro, the best teams continue to cover. Most of the time.

DET is a very good team, but they're not "elite." The Niners are capable. They won't win this game, but I can easily see a 3-4 point Lion win here.

onlooker · 10-10-11, 11:42 PM

We will see, I have to still go over week 6.

No coincidences · 10-10-11, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by superblaaze

that line is +5 already

+6 at 5Dimes according to SBRodds.

Balco10 · 10-10-11, 11:43 PM

Most books don't even have a line on this game yet.

Balco10 · 10-10-11, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

+6 at 5dimes according to SBRodds.

No, just checked and no line on the game yet!

yD · 10-10-11, 11:48 PM

I think if the 9ers had the same schedule as the Bears, they would also be 2-3.

onlooker · 10-10-11, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Balco10

No, just checked and no line on the game yet!

Lions -6 at the LV Hilton.

DarkNite · 10-10-11, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

DET is a very good team, but they're not "elite." The Niners are capable. They won't win this game, but I can easily see a 3-4 point Lion win here.

Agreed.

No coincidences · 10-10-11, 11:57 PM

I'm a long-suffering Lions fan BTW. Not sure if you want to take that into consideration when looking at my opinion of this play or not.

While paco and Deuce suck each other off over how great Detroit is, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop.

yD · 10-11-11, 12:01 AM

Well, coming from an unbiased fan, name 5 teams that are better right now.

suicidekings · 10-11-11, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by Balco10

No, just checked and no line on the game yet!

Totally irrelevant as the people that want to play openers have access to the books that do have the line.

gambler CK · 10-11-11, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by yD

Well, coming from an unbiased fan, name 5 teams that are better right now.

patriots, packers, ravens, bills, saints

but that would be it, so yes, they are a top 5-6 team

49erFan8280 · 10-11-11, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by yD

Well, coming from an unbiased fan, name 5 teams that are better right now.

The best team they've faced so far are the Bears. They had a cupcake schedule before that. Regardless, I don't think the Niners win this one at all. Match up nightmare for us.

Jcm144 · 10-11-11, 12:37 AM

Interesting that line looks very appealing for DET.....i haven't really figured out this Niners team though. I picked against them this past weekend, boy did they make me look stupid.

suicidekings · 10-11-11, 12:42 AM

Disagree.

Defensively, SF has been great against the run, but hot and cold against the pass. They contained Dalton and Freeman nicely, but let both Vick and Romo put up 400+ passing yards. The Detroit passing game is too strong for me to believe that the 49ers will limit the Lions effectively. The last two weeks, SF has looked good offensively, but put into the context of having played against the Eagles and Bucs, it really doesn't prove much. They have a +10 TO margin so far for the season so far, which has helped inflate their stats.

Finally, SF is getting outgained in total yards on the season by 40 ypg, and to me this is the most damning stat. The turnovers have made the difference so far, but without star players making big plays to compensate for the negative margin with higher offensive efficiency, I would say that its just a matter of time until the Niners regress when the ball stops bouncing their way.

The Lions have had it pretty so far as well, probably making them look better than they are, but the Niners are not the team that's going to stop them because the matchup issues are too much in Detroit's favour.

Huego · 10-11-11, 01:28 AM

+10 turnover margin is not just because "the ball is bouncing their way"... that's a very ignorant statement. The 49ers are playing very smart football, taking care of the ball and no stupid penalties. Alex Smith so far has 7 TDs and only 1 INT. On the defensive side of the ball they have a top 3 front 7 in all of football. The secondary is average at worse and Calvin Johnson will be a matchup problem but every secondary in the league will have that issue.

I feel the line is too much, I would set it at Lions -3.5.

Speedy88 · 10-11-11, 02:43 AM

Lions are the play. I'm still not sold on the 49ers. Lets take a look at what they've done this season:

Wk1: Beat the pitiful Seahawks
Wk2: Lost to Tony Romo's borken ribs
Wk3: Beat the pitiful Bengals
Wk4: Beat Phili. Okay I am a little impressed with their win here. I'll give them credit on this one. But lets not be fooled, there is a reason why the Eagles are 1-4, they are extremely overrated.
Wk5: Beat the pitiful TB Bucs. The same Bucs that should have lost to Curtis Painter on MNF.

I'll be all over Detroit. 49ers have great run defense, and a pretty bad pass defense. The Lions don't try to run the ball, and pretty much throw the ball everywhere. So this is a great matchup for the Lions and a bad one for the 49ers.

dontbuythehook · 10-11-11, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Lions are the play. I'm still not sold on the 49ers. Lets take a look at what they've done this season:

Wk2: Lost to Tony Romo's borken ribs

I'll be all over Detroit. 49ers have great run defense, and a pretty bad pass defense. The Lions don't try to run the ball, and pretty much throw the ball everywhere. So this is a great matchup for the Lions and a bad one for the 49ers.

dem be some tough borken

suicidekings · 10-11-11, 03:29 AM

Originally posted by Huego

+10 turnover margin is not just because "the ball is bouncing their way"... that's a very ignorant statement.

A +10 TO margin after 5 games means that yes, to a certain extent, they're getting the lucky bounces. Are all 10 extra possessions pure luck? Of course not, but they're not all a product of pure skill either... The five QBs SF has faced also have a combined 30-28 TD-Int ratio, so perhaps it has just as much or more to do with the poor ball control of their opponents.

I'm not trying to talk down about the Niners here. They're a good team and I expect them to win 10 games unless their divisional opponents pull themselves together. I'm just saying that what we've seen so far is not likely to hold up against tougher opponents, such as Detroit.

rofacapper · 10-11-11, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Disagree.

Defensively, SF has been great against the run, but hot and cold against the pass. They contained Dalton and Freeman nicely, but let both Vick and Romo put up 400+ passing yards. The Detroit passing game is too strong for me to believe that the 49ers will limit the Lions effectively. The last two weeks, SF has looked good offensively, but put into the context of having played against the Eagles and Bucs, it really doesn't prove much. They have a +10 TO margin so far for the season so far, which has helped inflate their stats.

Finally, SF is getting outgained in total yards on the season by 40 ypg, and to me this is the most damning stat. The turnovers have made the difference so far, but without star players making big plays to compensate for the negative margin with higher offensive efficiency, I would say that its just a matter of time until the Niners regress when the ball stops bouncing their way.

The Lions have had it pretty so far as well, probably making them look better than they are, but the Niners are not the team that's going to stop them because the matchup issues are too much in Detroit's favour.

This is spot on. The 49ers are great against the run but Detroit hardly runs it, so that doesn't play to San Fran's strength. The Niners are pretty good this year and will win the NFC West (not saying much), but this is a game where Detroit can pass all over them. Not saying Detroit is a great play here, but they could easily win by a TD plus against San Francisco making the cross-country trip.

Jutzu · 10-11-11, 05:50 AM

Will 49ers shaky O-Line be able to withstand Detroit's Defensive Front 4? That is the question that someone needs to answer before making a pick.

superblaaze · 10-11-11, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Best play this week.

sorry don't see this as the best play of the week much better plays IMO good luck to you though

bigsmitty · 10-11-11, 07:00 AM

Agreed.

k13 · 10-11-11, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by gambler CK

patriots, packers, ravens, bills, saints

but that would be it, so yes, they are a top 5-6 team

Bills....oh wait biased opinion.

Bills are not even a top 10. Lose to the Giants this week.

rwd201 · 10-11-11, 10:39 AM

Before the line came out I was ready to take SF+3.5
I got it at SF+7@-150

k13 · 10-11-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Lions are the play. I'm still not sold on the 49ers. Lets take a look at what they've done this season:

Wk1: Beat the pitiful Seahawks
Wk2: Lost to Tony Romo's borken ribs
Wk3: Beat the pitiful Bengals
Wk4: Beat Phili. Okay I am a little impressed with their win here. I'll give them credit on this one. But lets not be fooled, there is a reason why the Eagles are 1-4, they are extremely overrated.
Wk5: Beat the pitiful TB Bucs. The same Bucs that should have lost to Curtis Painter on MNF.

I'll be all over Detroit. 49ers have great run defense, and a pretty bad pass defense. The Lions don't try to run the ball, and pretty much throw the ball everywhere. So this is a great matchup for the Lions and a bad one for the 49ers.

The pitiful seahawks that beat the giants
The pitful Bengals that beat the bills, a supposed top 5 team according to some on here..
The pitful Bucs that the Lions had trouble beating....

Anyway, line is down to -4.5, so fire away at Detroit. Niners have no chance in the Dome.

gambler CK · 10-11-11, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by k13

Bills....oh wait biased opinion.

Bills are not even a top 10. Lose to the Giants this week.

your right, the bills who have beat the raiders, patriots and eagles are not a top 10 team

your a clown bro

k13 · 10-11-11, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by gambler CK

your right, the bills who have beat the raiders, patriots and eagles are not a top 10 team

your a clown bro

So they should beat the Giants rather easily right?

Bills might not even bet top 15 when the season is finished.

Huego · 10-11-11, 11:53 AM

Lions are facing the best defense and running game they've faced all year. Let's see how the lions linebackers do against the run and how stafford feels in the pocket with pass rushers flying at him.