KATCHASE'S NFL Totals - 2011 Season Thread

[KATCHASE]

Hey...Thanks for stopping by. I've been doing some number crunching over the past year or so and have come up with a formula for picking NFL totals. I've tested the past 5 years and have never had a losing year. In fact, my formula has averaged a win rate over the past 5 years of 63% and earned a total of +85.1 units (1 unit for every win and -1.1 unit for every loss).

I'm pretty excited about this year's season so I plan on posting my picks here for accurate record keeping. Unfortunately, I won't be able to post my picks until about 15-30 minutes prior to game time but feel free to check once in a while or follow along if you like.
Best of luck to everyone!!!

- KATCHASE

2011 NFL Totals Record: 0-0-0

[KATCHASE]

tampa bay @ minnesota - over 41.5 (1 unit)
chicago @ new orleans - over 46.5 (1 unit)
seattle @ pittsburgh - under 40 (1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

kansas city @ detroit - over 45 (1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

philadelphia @atlanta - over 50 (1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

It was a great start yesterday going 4-1 +2.9 units!

Here are yesterday's results:
tampa bay @ minnesota - over 41.5 (1 unit) - win +1 unit
chicago @ new orleans - over 46.5 (1 unit) - loss -1.1 unit
seattle @ pittsburgh - under 40 (1 unit) - win +1 unit
kansas city @ detroit - over 45 (1 unit) -win +1 unit
philadelphia @atlanta - over 50 (1 unit) - win +1 unit

KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 4-1-0

[KATCHASE]

Tonight's play is:

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants - UNDER 44 (1 UNIT)

KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 4-1-0

[KATCHASE]

Monday's result:

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants - UNDER 44 (1 UNIT) - push (+0 unit)


KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 4-1-1

[brucelee66]

nice week. How's the 1st two weeks go?

[KATCHASE]

Thanks. Week 1 of my system went 5-1-1, but I'm not including that in this thread's record because the picks weren't documented here prior to game time.

[KATCHASE]

I've been tweaking my system a bit and the results for the past 5 years would have been:

2010 (51-18) 74%...+31.2 units
2009 (53-23) 70%...+27.7 units
2008 (61-32) 66%...+25.8 units
2007 (50-32) 61%...+14.8 units
2006 (25-17) 60%...+6.3 units (weeks 5-21 only)

That's a total of 240-122 (win rate: 66%) and a total of +105.8 units.

[KATCHASE]

Current 2011 NFL Totals Season Summary

Week 1.....5-1-1 (Undocumented)
Week 2.....4-1-1 (+2.9 units) +$290
Week 3.....To Be Announced

[morri1962]

any early games?????

[parlayin]

how late you gonna wait to post these?

[KATCHASE]

san fran @ cinci - over 38.5

new england @ buffalo - over 54

houston @ new orleans - over 51 (2 units)

ny giants @ phili - over 46.5

denver @ tenn - over 44 (2 units)

detroit @ minn - under 45 (2 units)

jacksonville @ carolina - over 43

[KATCHASE]

Damn...my computer battery died.

[morri1962]

At least i'll get the late games in

[parlayin]

what's the point of the hype, then post too late for anyone to get down?

[morri1962]

Nevermind ..........

[TPA]

Thats a lot of points haha

[KATCHASE]

Sorry. I'll have the afternoon games posted no later than 15 mins prior.

[KATCHASE]

My 2 unit plays have the highest win %. The 1 unit plays have a slightly lower win %, but I'm hoping they'll balance out the day.

[KATCHASE]

Here are some early leans. (Official plays to follow.)

KC @ SAN DIEGO - under 44.5 (1 unit)
NY JETS @ OAK - under 41 (2 units)
BALT @ ST. LOUIS - under 42 (1 unit)
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO - under 45.5 (1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

OFFICIAL PLAYS:

KC @ SAN DIEGO - under 44.5 (1 unit)
NY JETS @ OAK - under 41 (2 units)
BALT @ ST. LOUIS - under 42 (1 unit)
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO - under 45.5 (1 unit)

[KATCHASE]

There will be no play tonight.

[KATCHASE]

Not a good week. I added too many games that may have showed a positive long term EV in my research, but turned out to be a disaster for this one single day. I think I'm going to stick to my original 63% win rate games from now on. This will cut back on the number of daily plays and protect the bankroll from taking such a hit.

I'm still very confident in my system, but only time will tell...hence the reason for this thread.

Week 3 results are as follows:

----------------------------------
Week 3.....4-7-0 (-6 units) -$600
----------------------------------

san fran @ cinci - over 38.5 lose (-1.1 unit)
new england @ buffalo - over 54 win (+1 unit)
houston @ new orleans - over 51 (2 units) win (+2 units)
ny giants @ phili - over 46.5 lose (-1.1 units)
denver @ tenn - over 44 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
detroit @ minn - under 45 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
jacksonville @ carolina - over 43 lose (-1.1 units)
KC @ SAN DIEGO - under 44.5 (1 unit) win (+1 unit)
NY JETS @ OAK - under 41 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
BALT @ ST. LOUIS - under 42 (1 unit) lose (-1.1 units)
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO - under 45.5 (1 unit) win (+1 unit)


KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 8-8-1 (-3.1 units) -$310

[KATCHASE]

There doesn't look like there will be any plays for the early games.

[KATCHASE]

The following are leans only:

DETROIT @ DALLAS 46.5 over
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE 45 under
SAN FRAN @ PHILI 43.5 under
TENN @ CLEVE 37.5 over
BUFFALO @ CINCI 43 over
MINN @ KC 40 over
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO 42 under
PITTS @ HOUSTON 46.5 over

[KATCHASE]

Here are some late game leans. (Official plays to follow.)

04:05 PM ATL @ SEATTLE 39.5 over
04:15 PM MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO 45 over
04:15 PM DENVER @ GREEN BAY 46.5 under

[KATCHASE]

Week 4...Official Plays:

04:05 PM ATL @ SEATTLE 39.5 over
04:15 PM MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO 45 over
04:15 PM DENVER @ GREEN BAY 46.5 under

[KATCHASE]

Tonight's lean:

NY JETS @ BALTIMORE 43 over

(No official play tonight)

[KATCHASE]

Week 4 (continued)...Official Play:

INDI @ TAMPA BAY...under 40.5 (2 units)

[KATCHASE]

Two units on the Indi @ Tampa Bay ... under 40.5

[KATCHASE]

Week 5...

8:30PM - GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA ... UNDER 55 (2 UNITS)

[KATCHASE]

Week 5 (cont...)

8:35PM - CHICAGO @ DETROIT...UNDER 47.5

[KATCHASE]

Week 4 Results:
-----------------------------------------
Week 4.....1-3-0 (-3.4 units) -$340
-----------------------------------------
04:05 PM ATL @ SEATTLE 39.5 over...win (+1 unit)
04:15 PM MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO 45 over...lose (-1.1 unit)
04:15 PM DENVER @ GREEN BAY 46.5 under...lose (-1.1 unit)
INDI @ TAMPA BAY...under 40.5 (2 units)...lose (-2.2 units)

KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 9-11-1 (-6.5 units) -$650