Week 2 Best TEASERS, Bucs/Indy?

[HauntingTheHoly]

I like the Bucs/Indy teaser getting nine points with each. Each starts at +3 with lots of juice, -130 for Colts and -120 for Bucs - making a tease to -110 seem a little nicer, no?

What are the best teasers for week 2? Include totals if you'd like.

[Deol]

Most likely my teasers for this weekend:

2 team 5-point
BAL + NYG (2 team 5-point)

3 team 6-point
HOU + GB + ?? (Either DET, CHI, or ATL)

[HauntingTheHoly]

@Deol - surprised no one jumped all over your ass for crossing the zero with HOU. Not saying they'd be wrong, I'm honestly not sure. I never messed with teasers until last year, but did very well with them. Only did two teamers. Another question for the board: Are 3 teamers at +180 worth doing vs. Two teamers?

[GarbageMan]

the math does say a +180 3 teamer is a better option than a -110 2 teamer.
the break even win% per leg comes out as:

2 teamer -110 = 72.37%

3 teamer +180 = 70.95%

trouble is it can be hard to find 3 viable teasable teams

[Educ8d Degener8]

@Deol - surprised no one jumped all over your ass for crossing the zero with HOU. Not saying they'd be wrong, I'm honestly not sure. I never messed with teasers until last year, but did very well with them. Only did two teamers. Another question for the board: Are 3 teamers at +180 worth doing vs. Two teamers?

Certain schools of thought would suggest teasing a strong road fav @ -3 is alright... So I guess it depends on how "strong" HOU is... (Can't say I like 'em that much).

Now the DET tease - I like it. I booked that myself when they were -8.5

[HauntingTheHoly]

@Educ8 - I agree with you on both HOU and DET. Who did you tease with DET?

[Deol]

I'm not overly experienced with teasers, just started last quarter of last season, did decent so trying to focus on them this year. I don't like crossing the 0 unless I get at least +3 at least going the other way, with Hou I did. Went with CHI over DET, no real rhyme or reason as to why, I just liked getting the points I guess haha. GL to all.

[Educ8d Degener8]

@Educ8 - I agree with you on both HOU and DET. Who did you tease with DET?

Pats -1 on Monday So I need the Lions to close it out for me.

For this weekend, I teased:
Saints -0.5 w/ Cowboys to +4 --> moved the Saints under the 7,6,4,3, and 1, and I DO consider the Cowboys a "strong" road fav @ SF... hence the play. I just shuddered a bit using the term "strong" with Romo on the road ;p

I also have ML parlay of Saints + Evan Dunham (mma fight on Sat). Hit on the AZ Cardinals + Josh Barnett last week, so giving it another go with a football/mma mixed parlay.

GL

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Indy? What whyyyyy

[brucelee66]

Here's a solid teaser, gotta play a 5-teamer to make a little money, stick to solid teams:

PATS -1 SD will remember they're not supposed to get hot til week 9. PATS also have SD's number.
JETS -3 JAX will struggle to score, NYJ score 17 will be enough for the cover
PHIL +3.5 Would think about laying pts but not getting 3.5 - PHIL will be in it if not S/U win
GB - 3.5 CAR will come to earth, period. There's real game film on Newton to study now and GB isn't AZ.
PIT -8 Perfect rebound against maybe the worst team in the league.

1.0 wins you 4.50

[HauntingTheHoly]

Indy? What whyyyyy

I wound up putting Ravens and Detroit in a teaser for a half unit and then again with Indy, three teamer, for another half unit. Seems weird to do such a thing, but I feel *extremely* good about those first two teams and just "pretty good" about Indy.

Why Indy you say? Reverse hype, if there is such a thing. Peyton is gone and they got slaughtered last week, so clearly they will be 0-16 and the worst team in the history of the NFL, right? That's week 1 reverse hype, and I'm not buying it at all. First of all, they got trounced last week by a potentially (we'll know more soon) GREAT team and division rival in an AWAY game. You think b/c of that the BROWNS, who are potentially (we'll know more soon) garbage are gonna roll into Indy and win by more than 9? I really dont see it. Kerry Collins is a proven, decent QB and there are plenty of good players on Indy. I feel the game should be a pick'em, but I get a head start with 3 points.

[HauntingTheHoly]

Here's a solid teaser, gotta play a 5-teamer to make a little money, stick to solid teams:

PATS -1 SD will remember they're not supposed to get hot til week 9. PATS also have SD's number.
JETS -3 JAX will struggle to score, NYJ score 17 will be enough for the cover
PHIL +3.5 Would think about laying pts but not getting 3.5 - PHIL will be in it if not S/U win
GB - 3.5 CAR will come to earth, period. There's real game film on Newton to study now and GB isn't AZ.
PIT -8 Perfect rebound against maybe the worst team in the league.

1.0 wins you 4.50

Scariest one of those is PIT. The over/under is only 39.5, I believe and you got a spread of around 15. I find that pretty incredible. Why do you think Seattle is maybe the worst in the league? I don't think they're good, but is there evidence aside from just Week 1 that they are gonna be totally dismal?

[bobbyk1133]

Tease down DET and GB. Free $$

[HauntingTheHoly]

Tease down DET and GB. Free $$

Maybe I'm a bit silly but I hate the idea of not getting under 3 points with the GB tease. Naturally the pack'll win by a FG if I make that bet. Granted since I did not, they'll win by three TD's.

[HauntingTheHoly]

I think DET and BALT are the best to tease by far, followed by Indy. I cooled off on the Bucs.

[bobbyk1133]

Maybe I'm a bit silly but I hate the idea of not getting under 3 points with the GB tease. Naturally the pack'll win by a FG if I make that bet. Granted since I did not, they'll win by three TD's.

I agree most teasers should cross 7 and 3, but that doesn't mean we can't have exceptions. I think GB kill CAR, but teasing them down eliminates a lot of the worry about a backdoor cover. Newton showed he could move the ball, so a late garbage time TD is very possible.

Also, don't tease BAL. Never tease a team down from -6. Just bet them on the ML for the same value.

[HauntingTheHoly]

I agree most teasers should cross 7 and 3, but that doesn't mean we can't have exceptions. I think GB kill CAR, but teasing them down eliminates a lot of the worry about a backdoor cover. Newton showed he could move the ball, so a late garbage time TD is very possible.

Also, don't tease BAL. Never tease a team down from -6. Just bet them on the ML for the same value.

Suppose someone liked the Colts +3(-130) and Balt. -6(-115). They really wanna tease the Colts for obvious numerical reasons and others (mentioned above). If they feel better about Baltimore than any other game to be included, why not? Why is Baltimore winning by 3 or 4 a worse bet than say Carolina scoring a TD for backdoor cover (if you have GB -4, I mean).

[HauntingTheHoly]

I didn't word that correctly, but I'm sure you see what I'm asking.

[brahmabull117]

the best teaser this week is Greenbay -3.5 and Detroit - 2.5, both those games are about as close to sure wins as you will see

[bobbyk1133]

Suppose someone liked the Colts +3(-130) and Balt. -6(-115). They really wanna tease the Colts for obvious numerical reasons and others (mentioned above). If they feel better about Baltimore than any other game to be included, why not? Why is Baltimore winning by 3 or 4 a worse bet than say Carolina scoring a TD for backdoor cover (if you have GB -4, I mean).

Well GB isn't the best example to use in a teaser, that's just what I'm doing. I like GB to win, but I don't like laying double digit points on a favorite...especially on the road. What I'm saying about BAL is you're better off to just bet them on the ML because teasing them down from -6 is the same value. So instead of depending on IND to win your teaser, you just need BAL to win straight up. Pair IND with someone else in a teaser window (like DET, NO, NE etc) to maximize your value. It doesn't seem like a big difference, but over the course of the season that kind of value adds up and we need every bit of edge we can find against the books and these lines.

[brahmabull117]

Well GB isn't the best example to use in a teaser, that's just what I'm doing. I like GB to win, but I don't like laying double digit points on a favorite...especially on the road. What I'm saying about BAL is you're better off to just bet them on the ML because teasing them down from -6 is the same value. So instead of depending on IND to win your teaser, you just need BAL to win straight up. Pair IND with someone else in a teaser window (like DET, NO, NE etc) to maximize your value. It doesn't seem like a big difference, but over the course of the season that kind of value adds up and we need every bit of edge we can find against the books and these lines.

I think Indy is a terrible bet on a teaser right now because of how unpredictable that team is. You really have no idea what you're gonna get from Kerry Collins and it wouldn't surprise me a lick to see Indy lose by 14 in this game

[bobbyk1133]

I think Indy is a terrible bet on a teaser right now because of how unpredictable that team is. You really have no idea what you're gonna get from Kerry Collins and it wouldn't surprise me a lick to see Indy lose by 14 in this game

Agreed Anyone betting that game is throwing darts blindfolded. IND backers need to rely not only on Collins playing good ball, but also that IND won't quit if they get down. Sharps loved CLE coming into the season. But now?

Scary game to bet on.

[HauntingTheHoly]

I think Indy is a terrible bet on a teaser right now because of how unpredictable that team is. You really have no idea what you're gonna get from Kerry Collins and it wouldn't surprise me a lick to see Indy lose by 14 in this game

Did you see my post #11? I think you're just over-reacting to week 1, like the rest of the public. You have no idea what you're gonna get from Kerry Collins? The guy is a hundred year old veteran - we know what we have with him. A decent qb who can manage the game, but not spectacular a la Manning. I don't think it's a big deal to get their ass kicked last week at Houston given the position they were in. It wouldn't surprise you to see the most-likely-crap BROWNS roll into Indy and win by 14? Really? I wish you were a PRO b/c I'd offer you a nice line on that browns -14.

[HauntingTheHoly]

Well GB isn't the best example to use in a teaser, that's just what I'm doing. I like GB to win, but I don't like laying double digit points on a favorite...especially on the road. What I'm saying about BAL is you're better off to just bet them on the ML because teasing them down from -6 is the same value. So instead of depending on IND to win your teaser, you just need BAL to win straight up. Pair IND with someone else in a teaser window (like DET, NO, NE etc) to maximize your value. It doesn't seem like a big difference, but over the course of the season that kind of value adds up and we need every bit of edge we can find against the books and these lines.

I don't see how the value of the ML has anything to do with how smart or not smart a teaser is. In your analysis, you ignored the "parlay" element of the teaser when you say "Instead of depending on IND...you just need Balt" If both win in the tease, you get more money than if just Balt. ML wins. And we wanna get rid of that nasty -130 # with Indy and even Baltimore ATS is worse than -120. You're saying there is no way to see that teaser (Baltimore PK/Indy +9) as more valueable than Baltimore ML? How can you calculate the chances of Baltimore winning by 3 or 4 and thus screwing you and any other number of situations you can think of?

[bobbyk1133]

I can't explain it any better than I already did. The whole point of teasers is to maximize value. That's what makes them "smart". Adding a 6 point favorite to one doesn't accomplish that. Yes if IND wins you get more $$, but not more value. That should be the goal of every bettor out there right?