EdV's season long football thread

[EdV38]

I'm going to set up my own NFL thread, sharing my picks and write ups with the board. The NFL has been my #1 money maker over the past two years and hopefully doing this only improves my game. I'm Canadian and will be using European style odds instead of the US ones. My focus is the NFL but I'll occasionally throw in a CFL game when I feel like it. Getting right into it:

Top Picks:

BUF -3.5 2 units @ 1.95
BUF/OAK under 1H (will post once my book allows it - 2 units)
IND +1.5 1 unit @ 1.95
IND ML 1 unit @ 2.10
DAL/SF over 42.5 2 units @ 1.91
HOU -3 2 units @ 2.00
HOU/MIA over 48 2 units @ 1.91
CIN +4 2 units @ 1.91
CFL: SASK -7.5 vs TOR 1 unit @ 1.95

Other leans:

Was -4
Bal -5.5
GB -10
Atl +2.5


Will not play:

KC @ DET. I think the line is absolutely wacked. It should not be anything more than a TD. That being said, I'm thinking Detroit could absolute cream KC so it's a no play for me. All other games I'll be listening to what others have to say.

Write ups to follow

[EdV38]

Oakland @ Buffalo

Prediction: BUF -3.5, Game total under for the first half.

Factors to Consider:

1. Early game for West Coast team
2. Oakland has an extremely undisciplined defense, expect a lot of penalties
3. Wisniewski got into a lot of penalty trouble against Denver in his rookie debut. Expect the same for game 2, possibly killing Oakland rallies.
4. Denver's defense matched up very well for Oakland's offense. Buffalo is better at defending the rushing game

Risks:

Buffalo's ability to stop McFadden/Bush from the big play. Overall they held Charles and McCluster to less than 100 yards last week but gave up 20+ yard runs to both of them.

What I think will happen:

Oakland will come out running against Buffalo for the 1st half of the game and won't have as much success as they did last week against Denver. Jackson is a smart fellow so if McFadden bombs the first half he'll probably switch up the game plan in the second half to give Campbell a shot. That's why I think the game will go under in the first half but maybe not in the total game. A pal of mine has season tickets to the Bills and knows the team inside out. He is convinced that the Bills are massively improved on the run defense which means they will probably be able to handle Oakland.

I don't expect many big plays from either QB but you can't discount Fitzpatrick's 4 TD passes. I have to roll with the hot hand.

Masked in Oakland's 131 yards of penalties last week were some Denver-specific 15 yarders, but there were still plenty of false starts and holdings that will probably plague them in game two. Oakland's not a talented enough team to endure 50+ more yards of penalties in the game than Buffalo and win.

[EdV38]

Cleveland @ Indy

Prediction: Indy to win the game and cover the spread

Factors to Consider:

1. They're without Manning
2. Everyone and their mother knows they are without Manning and the line is overcompensating to reflect that fact.
3. Collins has another week to look at the playbook and gel with his new team.
4. Addai has a chance to step up big

What I think will happen:

Come on now. I can understand a +9 line against Houston. Getting their asses kicked by a good team on the road makes perfect sense. But now they are at home and they are facing a BAD team. A team so bad that they lost by 10 points last week to what many consider one of the bottom three teams in the NFL. How a team that played so sloppily can be a road favourite against Indy, Manning or not Manning, boggles my mind.

Collins is inept but he's not SO inept that he can't make some good use of the plethora of veteran receivers on this team once he gets in sync with them. This could be his last chance in the NFL. I think he's going to try his best to make it last.

Let's not forget the forgotten factor on this team over the past several years - Joseph Addai. Benson, who is a fair comparable to Addai, managed to run 121 yards last week. There's nothing stopping Addai from putting up similar numbers.

The Colts are use to winning. They're not just going to lie down and take it up the ass from a mediocre team in their home opener. The coaching staff and players, particularly on the offensive side will do what it takes to get a game plan going that will see them roll over the Browns in my opinion.

[EdV38]

Final Card:

Buffalo Bills - spread -3½ (1.95) 2.5x
Indianapolis Colts - spread +1½ (1.95) 2.5x
Indianapolis Colts - moneyline (2.10) 2.5x
Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers - total Over 42½ (1.91) 7x
Houston Texans - spread -3 (2.00) 2.5x
Houston Texans/Miami Dolphins - total Over 48 (1.91) 3x
Cincinnati Bengals - spread +4 (1.91) 2x
Oakland Raiders/Buffalo Bills - total Under 21½ (1.87) 2x
Washington Redskins - spread -3½ (1.95) 2x
Baltimore Ravens - spread -5½ (1.91) 1x
Green Bay Packers - spread -10 (1.91) 2x
San Diego Chargers/New England Patriots - total Over 53½ (1.91) 1x

CFL: SASK -7.5 vs TOR 1 unit @ 1.95 win

[EdV38]

Mediocre week, but at least I scored on my big play. Made some money on Atl and the over last night too to be up a few pennies this week but I forgot to post it so it doesn't count on here.

ML: 0-1 -2.5 units
ATS: 2-4 -3.68 units
Totals: 2-2 +2.28 units
CFL:1-0 +0.95 units

Tonight's play:

NYG ML @1.31 2x.

[EdV38]

Updated:

ML: 1-1 -1.89 units
ATS: 2-4 -3.68 units
Totals: 2-2 +2.28 units
CFL:1-0 +0.95 units

CFL Plays:

Winnipeg -3 @ Toronto 2x @ 1.91

Take the points on this one. The Argos have just been awful all year and have shown me nothing impressive on offense with the new QB. winnipeg is 4-1 on the road and 5-0 within their division.

Sask ML vs BC 1.5x @ 1.83

Both teams have been playing well over the past month, but Saskatchewan has been playing particularly well after a poor start to the season. This is a must win for them if they want to make the playoff and I think they'll come through at home.

Edmonton +1.5 vs Montreal 1x @ 1.91

You're getting Edmonton at home plus points to try and beat what I consider to be an inferior team

[EdV38]

I don't have many strong opinions on games this week, but have a very strong opinion on one of them.

Play of the week

NE TT 1H over 16.5 12 units. NE TT game over 30.5 20 units.

I've had a good start to the year and i'm willing to lay all those winnings on the line on Buffalo. I had the pleasure of being in the stands last year when Brady and New England took apart Buffalo in 2.5 quarters. Believe me, it was every bit of a raping as 34-3 implies.

I can understand why the line moved from -9 to -7. the Bills have played well this year and the score could easily be 34-32. Or it could be 34-3 like last time. The one constant in all of that is NE scoring well over 30 points so that's the bet to take.

NE has scored over 30 against two defenses better than Buffalo's so far this year. Brady took apart inter-divisional opponent Miami. He will be similarly prepared for the Bills as well.

While Buffalo's rush defense is good, their pass defense has been sh1t. They gave up 323 yards to Jason Campbell last week, 21 points in the first half and 35 in total. Last week's game is debatably Campbell's best game of his career and is certainly in the top 3. What is Brady capable of doing to them?

Other games:

NO -3.5 2x. Houston has proven nothing to me so far. They are a notoriously bad road team so having to lay only 3.5 to a home team with real talent seems like a good bet.

KC +14.5 2x and maybe ML

See here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1275409-kc-14-5-a.html

Min -3.5 1x and ML 0.5x @2.45
GB/CHI under 46 1x
Den/Ten over 42

[EdV38]

Winnipeg -3 @ Toronto 2x @ 1.91 loss
Sask ML vs BC 1.5x @ 1.83 loss
Edmonton +1.5 vs Montreal 1x @ 1.91 loss
Den/Ten over 42 loss 1x
Min ML loss 0.5x

NO -3.5 2x win
KC +14.5 2x win
Min -3.5 1x win
GB/CHI under 46 1x win


And of course
NE TT 1H over 16.5 12x easy win
NE TT game over 30.5 20x glad I got it at 30.5 and not 31 win


Updated Record:
ML: 1-2 -2.39 units
ATS: 5-4 +0.87 units
Totals: 5-3 +30.03 units
CFL:1-3 -3.55 units

[EdV38]

For week 4:

Giants -2.5
Oak/NE over 52
ATL -4
are my multiple unit plays so far

MIN pk over KC
NE -4.5
Car/Chi under 44
Buf -3
Buf/Cin under 44.5
are my single unit plays so far

half unit teaser ATL-.5 and NYG -.5

[EdV38]

Tonight DAL ML 2 units to win 1.18

[EdV38]

I has Win +7 as my CFL pick for the week. Of course I didn't write it down here and of course they won.

Updated Record:
ML: 2-2 -1.21 units
ATS: 5-4 +0.87 units
Totals: 5-3 +30.03 units
CFL:1-3 -3.55 units

[EdV38]

Plays for this week:


NE/Oak over 52 (3x), over 53 (2x) over 55 (1x) for Total of 6 units.
NE -4.5 1x
NYG -2.5 (4x), -1 (4x) for a total of 8 units
NYG -7.5 0.5X to win 1.2x
ATL -4, (5x)
SEA Team Total under 17.5 (1x)
Min pk(1x)
Car/Chi under 44 (1x), under 42.5 (1x)
Buf -3 (2x)
Buf/Cin under 44.5 (1x)
Cin Team total under 20 (2x)
NYJ +4 (2x)
NYJ/Bal over 41 (1x)
SF/PHI over 44 (2x)
MIA/SD over 44.5 (2x)
STL ML 1x to win 1.25x

Parlays:
CHI ML & GB ML 2 units to win 1.1
ATL -0.5 & NYG -0.5 0.5 unit to win 0.68

Not doing any writeups until I know that I'm not talking to myself in here