Jmathes 2011-12 NFL Picks

[jmathes]

I am going to post my picks each week without a writeup. The picks are all from a spreadsheet that I have made the past few years with a little tweaking here and there. The picks will be posted on Saturdays for the week with a rare exception as tonight. I will typically bet about 6-7 games a week and hope to hit 60%.


NFL WEEK 1:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6.5 (-120)
DENVER BRONCOS -3

[jmathes]

Here is a college football pick for tonight. I went 1-1 in the NFL but will definitely hit stride in the next few days...

NFL WEEK 1:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6.5 (-120) WIN
DENVER BRONCOS -3 LOSS


TODAYS PICK: MISS STATE +4

[jmathes]

Miss state +4 loss

todays pick: Boise state & toledo under 61

[jmathes]

todays pick: Boise state & toledo under 61 WIN

Here are my college plays for today and NFL plays for tomorrow. I think this is the week the favorites come through. I will have one more play tomorrow morning posted by noon eastern.


TODAYS PICKS:

MIAMI -2
OKLAHOMA -3



SUNDAYS CARD:

GREEN BAY -10
DETROIT -7 (-130)
WASHINGTON -3
BALTIMORE -5.5
PITT -13.5 (-130)
DALLAS -3
NY JETS -3



OVERALL RECORD: 2-2

[jmathes]

I went 2-0 yesterday and looking to pick up a couple more units today. I am adding Cincy +3.5 to my card and having a hard time with passing on Buffalo -3. I think the Bills whip the hell out of the depleted Raiders but spreadsheet says no play. The best of luck!


MIAMI -2 WIN
OKLAHOMA -3 WIN



SUNDAYS CARD:

GREEN BAY -10
DETROIT -7 (-130)
WASHINGTON -3
BALTIMORE -5.5
PITT -13.5 (-130)
DALLAS -3
NY JETS -3
CINCY +3.5



OVERALL RECORD: 4-2

[freeVICK]

jets -3

[jmathes]

I went 4-3-1 Sunday and had a couple of bad breaks on the Cowboys game getting tackled on the 1 yard line, then the Panthers covering the last few seconds of the game. Its ok though because thats gambling and I know my system will prevail. I will release the weekend plays on Saturday but will lock in Saints -3 (-135) now because I am really liking this game. Sure the Texans are good but the Saints are even better and back in their Superbowl form. This line will probably be 4.5 or 5 by gametime.

I am also locking in a teaser of 3 teams in NCAA which I like each of the teams to cover straight up but the teaser is for insurance purposes:

BAYLOR -10
MIAMI -2.5
ALABAMA -2




SUNDAYS RESULTS:

GREEN BAY -10 LOSS
DETROIT -7 (-130) WIN
WASHINGTON -3 LOSS
BALTIMORE -5.5 LOSS
PITT -13.5 (-130) WIN
DALLAS -3 PUSH
NY JETS -3 WIN
CINCY +3.5 WIN



OVERALL RECORD: 8-5-1

[jmathes]

There is a play in tonight's NCAA game. The best of luck!


TODAYS PICKS:

NC STATE & CINCY UNDER 61.5



OVERALL RECORD: 8-5-1

[jmathes]

NC STATE & CINCY UNDER 61.5 WIN

Another victory and have a play in tonight's game. My gut feeling is to play BYU -1 but spreadsheet favors the over 43.5. I will post my plays for the NFL either tonight or tomorrow before 4 pm eastern time. Best of luck



TODAYS PICK: UCF & BYU OVER 43.5


OVERALL RECORD: 9-5-1

[jmathes]

UCF & BYU OVER 43.5 LOSS




TODAYS PICK: ARIZONA -2.5

I am also locking in a teaser of 3 teams in NCAA which I like each of the teams to cover straight up but the teaser is for insurance purposes (TO WIN 1 UNIT:

BAYLOR -10
MIAMI -2.5
ALABAMA -2





OVERALL RECORD: 9-6-1

[jmathes]

sundays card

new orleans -3 (-135)
buffalo +8.5
cincy -1.5
ny jets -3
arizona -3 (-130)
green bay -3.5
miami +2
tennessee -6.5
detroit -3
carolina -3

[jmathes]

ARIZONA -2.5 win

I am also locking in a teaser of 3 teams in NCAA which I like each of the teams to cover straight up but the teaser is for insurance purposes (TO WIN 1 UNIT:

BAYLOR -10
MIAMI -2.5
ALABAMA -2 loss





new orleans -3 (-135) win
buffalo +8.5 win
cincy -1.5 loss
ny jets -3 loss
arizona -3 (-130) loss
green bay -3.5 win
miami +2 win
tennessee -6.5 loss
detroit -3 push
carolina -3 win



OVERALL RECORD: 15-11-2

[jmathes]

Locking in 3 bets for NCAA tomorrow and 2 NFL games for Sunday. I will be back tomorrow morning with another college football pick and will post my full NFL card for Sunday.


Arkansas +3
Alabama-3
Baylor -3 (-130)

NFL

New Orleans -6.5
Minny -2

[jmathes]

Arkansas +3 win
Alabama-3 win
Baylor -3 (-130) loss


sundays card:


NFL

New Orleans -6.5
Minny -2
Detroit +2.5
Washington -2
Houston -3.5
Atlanta -4
Oakland +5





OVERALL RECORD: 17-12-2

[jmathes]

Here are my results from Sunday in which I went 4-3. I am locking in Oklahoma -9.5 for Saturday and will be back later this week to post the rest of my plays.



NFL

New Orleans -6.5 win
Minny -2 loss
Detroit +2.5 win
Washington -2 win
Houston -3.5 win
Atlanta -4 loss
Oakland +5 loss





OVERALL RECORD: 21-15-2

[jmathes]

There will be a play in tonights's NCAA game:


Cal & Oregon under 65



OVERALL RECORD: 21-15-2

[jmathes]

There will be a play in tonights's NCAA game:


Cal & Oregon under 65



OVERALL RECORD: 21-15-2

Cal & Oregon under 65 WIN



OVERALL RECORD: 22-15-2




Starting to hit stride and looking to pick up a couple more units as the statistics only get stronger. I do not like over/unders but have a strong play in the Chiefs/Colts game as I play it with a 3 team 10 point super teaser. I feel like the 10 points on the teaser gives a very strong play here given that Oklahoma takes care of business. I told myself that I would not include writeups in this thread to solidify my plays so I will not. BTW teasers and all other bets are to win one unit as flat betting is the key to my system. Stats love Pitt -3 at home but due to injuries the play will be negated.



Oklahoma -9.5


3 Team Super Teaser:

-Oklahoma +1
-Kansas City & Indy under 49
-New England +1.5


NFL

Buffalo +3
Cincy +2.5
Green Bay -6
Detroit -4 (-130)
New Orleans -6

Pitt -3

[LUNT101]

Good luck

[jmathes]

Good luck

thanks buddy, you too!

almost pulled the trigger on the under 58 in the boise state game but decided not to do it. boise state has a good defense and i don't see this one going over the total. the public loves overs on primetime games but you know what the sharps like (especially NCAA games). my spreadsheet has this one at 54 which means < 4 means no play for me.

[jmathes]

I am bumping my NCAA plays for today. They were posted above but have faded and wanted to refresh them so everyone can see. Spreadsheet leans but not official plays are West Virginia -20, Kentucky +21, Miss State -19, North Carolina -13.5, Florida State -10, Baylor -14.5, Southern Miss +1. The best of luck today!



Oklahoma -9.5


3 Team Super Teaser:

-Oklahoma +1
-Kansas City & Indy under 49
-New England +1.5



OVERALL RECORD: 22-15-2

[jmathes]

Oklahoma -9.5 Win


Another win with Oklahoma destroying Texas as planned. Today I have a total of 5 single plays and a 3 game teaser. Hard time skipping the Steelers game but due to the amount of injuries I will have to pass here. Lets hope to pick up a couple more units.



3 Team Super Teaser:

-Oklahoma +1 win
-Kansas City & Indy under 49
-New England +1.5


NFL

Buffalo +3
Cincy +2.5
Green Bay -6
Detroit -4 (-130)
New Orleans -6


Pitt -3




OVERALL RECORD: 23-15-2

[mdmahaney]

GL today

[jmathes]

Here are my results from this past week going 4-2 on Sunday and grabbing a couple more units. Right now I am hitting at a 61% rate over 46 picks. I do realize that it is a small sample size but check back after week 16 and see where I am at. I think you will love the results as these plays tend to get better. I am locking in a 3 Team 10 point teaser for next weekend before the line moves: LSU -6, Green Bay -5, & Pitt Steelers -2. Once again this is to win one unit. I think teasing a big double digit favorite down to less than 7 can be very advantageous. Lets dance...



3 Team Super Teaser: LOSS

-Oklahoma +1
-Kansas City & Indy under 49
-New England +1.5


NFL

Buffalo +3 WIN
Cincy +2.5 WIN
Green Bay -6 WIN
Detroit -4 (-130) WIN
New Orleans -6 LOSS






OVERALL RECORD: 27-17-2

[jmathes]

Alot of top 10 teams in College Football have been covering at an extremely high rate through the first 6 weeks of the season, but that won't happen much longer. The books will get their money back as they always do. I am locking in my teaser for the weekend, 2 NCAA plays for tomorrow, and 1 NFL for Sunday. I will post back tomorrow afternoon the rest of my NFL plays for the weekend. The best of luck!


South Carolina -2.5

Oklahoma State -7



3 Team 10 point teaser:

LSU -6
Green Bay -5
Pitt Steelers -2


NFL

New Orleans -4




OVERALL RECORD: 27-17-2

[jmathes]

Disgusting last second loss on South Carolina up 4 with 4 seconds left and taking a safety to end the game. Its ok though because there was no harm done in NCAA football today as I went 1-1 and completed 1 of the 3 legs of my teaser. My NFL stats look good this weekend and a little more on the card than normal but the numbers don't lie. Good luck tomorrow!



South Carolina -2.5 LOSS

Oklahoma State -7 WIN



3 Team 10 point teaser:

LSU -6
Green Bay -5
Pitt Steelers -2


NFL

New Orleans -4
Washington +3
Carolina +4
Cincy -6
Buffalo +3.5
Dallas +6.5
NY Jets -6.5





OVERALL RECORD: 28-18-2

[jmathes]

I have one play from above pending tonight which is NY Jets -6.5 and I am adding a play to this as well. As always both are to win one unit. No description on this just know its about as sharp as they come. I will update my record sometime tonight or tomorrow. Good luck!

NY Jets -6.5
Miami 1st half points under 9

[jmathes]

With a 2-0 sweep tonight that makes me 6-3 for the weekend. I am hitting just a hair under 62% right now and just getting going. There is nothing that will stand in my way this year as my numbers will only get better as the season goes on. I am releasing another 3 team 10 point teaser for next weekend which will probably move slightly so lock in asap. 2 NFL teams coming off a tough road loss heading back home, double digit favorites teased to less than 7. Providing that Oklahoma gets it done this should be another easy winner.



Pending 3 team 10 point teaser:


Oklahoma -19

Dallas -2.5

New Orleans -3.5











3 Team 10 point teaser: WIN

LSU -6
Green Bay -5
Pitt Steelers -2


NFL

New Orleans -4 LOSS
Washington +3 LOSS
Carolina +4 LOSS
Cincy -6 WIN
Buffalo +3.5 WIN
Dallas +6.5 WIN
NY Jets -6.5 WIN

Miami 1st half points under 9 WIN






OVERALL RECORD: 34-21-2 (62%)

[jmathes]

I will release my NFL plays sometime in the afternoon. I have one college football play and another involved in a 3 team 10 point teaser. Lets get it done as usual!

Wisconsin -6.5 (-120)




Pending 3 team 10 point teaser:


Oklahoma -19

Dallas -2.5

New Orleans -3.5




OVERALL RECORD: 34-21-2 (62%)

[jmathes]

Here are my plays for tomorrow. I also have Wisconsin and a teaser that will carry over. See post above... The best of luck!


Seattle +3.5
Oakland -4
Pitt -4
Denver & Miami under 43
Baltimore -8
Sand Diego +1
Houston +3

[jmathes]

Went 4-5 last week... Plays soon to come

Here are my plays for tomorrow. I also have Wisconsin and a teaser that will carry over. See post above... The best of luck!



Wisconsin -6.5 (-120) LOSS




Pending 3 team 10 point teaser: LOSS


Oklahoma -19

Dallas -2.5

New Orleans -3.5



Seattle +3.5 WIN
Oakland -4 LOSS
Pitt -4 WIN
Denver & Miami under 43 WIN
Baltimore -8 LOSS
Sand Diego +1 LOSS
Houston +3 WIN




OVERALL RECORD: 38-26-2 (59%)

[jmathes]

My plays for the NFL this week:

New England -2.5
Buffalo -5
San Fran -8
Cincy -1.5
Dallas +3
Detroit -3
Carolina -3

OVERALL RECORD: 38-26-2 (59%)

[blowseq]

Good luck J

[jmathes]

Another winning week going 4-3. I am locking in an NCAA bet that may or may not move but I like the number and very very confident about this bet. This is my largest wager ever which will make that worth 3 units in this thread. Typically I flat bet but my knowledge of these teams and the situation make it worth the amount I am dropping on this game. I will be back on Saturdady with my weekend NFL picks.


Ticket#:12149749
Nov 05 12:30 PM
INTERNET / -1Oct 31 05:13 PM
CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[354] OKLAHOMA -13-110

11000 / 10000




New England -2.5 LOSS
Buffalo -5 WIN
San Fran -8 WIN
Cincy -1.5 WIN
Dallas +3 LOSS
Detroit -3 WIN
Carolina -3 LOSS

OVERALL RECORD: 42-29-2 (59%)

[Gilly86]

10000 is 3 units? Your usual bet is 3,333?

[jmathes]

Another winning week going 4-3. I am locking in an NCAA bet that may or may not move but I like the number and very very confident about this bet. This is my largest wager ever which will make that worth 3 units in this thread. Typically I flat bet but my knowledge of these teams and the situation make it worth the amount I am dropping on this game. I will be back on Saturdady with my weekend NFL picks. Ticket#:12149749 Nov 05 12:30 PM INTERNET / -1Oct 31 05:13 PM CFB STRAIGHT BET [354] OKLAHOMA -13-110 11000 / 10000 New England -2.5 LOSS Buffalo -5 WIN San Fran -8 WIN Cincy -1.5 WIN Dallas +3 LOSS Detroit -3 WIN Carolina -3 LOSS OVERALL RECORD: 42-29-2 (59%)

OKLAHOMA -13 (3 UNITS) WIN



I apologize these plays are rolling in a little later than expected but they are here. I cashed my Oklahoma bet for 3 units which was truly the largest wager I have ever made. The spreadsheet likes these plays but all for about the same value. Nothing really sticks out too much other than Kansas City.

NFL PICKS FOR SUNDAY 11/6

ATLANTA -6.5
KANSAS CITY -4
SAN FRAN -3
CINCY +3
GREEN BAY -5.5
OAKLAND -7
HOUSTON -10








OVERALL RECORD: 45-29-2 (61%)