Bridgejumper 2011 - Year TWENTY!!!

Grinder12000 · 09-27-11, 08:30 AM

Finally - week 3 is over and I can start to look at games. This week in Bridgejumper we have four "C" games. Over the years I have been putting 1 unit on the "C" games 2 Units on the "B" games and 4 units on the "A" games and in reality there is even a part of "A" that I call Super"A" but those are few and far between in the last 10 years.

So this week the system has four "C" games and I am using the lines at Intertops . . I've always used Tuesday morning Intertops lines for 20 years so I don't want to change. Remember - the below games are basically a 50/50 bet, actually 56% so 2% over break even.

PLAY Cincinnati Home Dogs by=3 over Buffalo System is 52-39 as HD+3 but 1-4 last year
PLAY KC Chiefs Home Dogs by +1 over Minnesota SAME AS ABOVE

PLAY NY Jets Away Dogs by +3.5 over Baltimore - System is 77-62 and 5-5 last year.
PLAY Pitts Steelers Away Dogs +4 over Houston SAME as above.

On the bright spot the 1st week of the system is 26-14 and 4-0 last year since 1992 when I started this.

Call82 · 09-27-11, 09:51 AM

sounds promising...I will tail with small money :-)

Grinder12000 · 09-27-11, 03:33 PM

Not a LOT of games so it's a "filler" system. The PROBLEM (which you will soon see) is that the games the system picks goes against every fiber of your being.

Grinder12000 · 10-02-11, 09:47 AM

Well - 3-1 one be excellent but 2-2 is probably going to be the result! 1-3 is not out of the question but the system IS 24-16 in week one and 4-0 last year. In case anyone is wondering the BEST picks are almost always favorites!! "B" and "A" are typically favorites!

Good luck. Let's hope 57% winnings go 4-0!

BTW - in 20 years only one year where it finished below 54% 2000 it went 27-29 -4.9 units.

Grinder12000 · 10-04-11, 05:17 PM

Went 2-2 last week which was pretty much what I expected. Those "C" games win just over the vig so it's like playing the DON'T COME line on a craps table.

HOWEVER - this week we have a "B" game and I put 2 units on that game. FOR ME my typical baseball bet is one unit - more more never less. But in the NFL I have much more confidence.

This weeks "C" game +1.5 at home vs. Indy! Away Dogs from P to +3 "when picked" are a very bland 37-29 for 56%

HOWEVER the "B" game is Buffalo +1.5 at home vs. Philly. The system is 32-16 over the years on these games.

Good luck!

Grinder12000 · 10-06-11, 07:45 AM

BTW - I miss typed the Buffalo spread should be +2.5 (it's now +3 -125).

Here is the logic behind WHY Bridgejumper is picking Buffalo.

I believe it is a non-confidence in the Eagles. You have a good team playing poorly vs. an OK team that has been sort of a surprise. The key here is that a good team playing poorly is on the road which is always tough. Then you have Buffalo who has been playing well at home. The linemakers know the public is still high on the Eagles and "this is the week" so the line has to be a little higher then it actually should be.

Cold good team on the road continues to be cold 32 out of 48 times.

thelegend67 · 10-06-11, 10:43 AM

is bridgejumper a system, or a subjective thing?

Grinder12000 · 10-10-11, 05:47 PM

Sorry - just got back from a vacation - it's pure 100% system that I have been betting on for 20 year. Keeps on ticking when other systems have gone 1 or 2 years and failed. There IS good solid logic behind it - not some weirdo number jumbo thing. Has nothing to do with football actually but only how people bet on the games compared to what the lines are and how teams are doing.

BTW - I hope ya' all caught the "C" game was KC. Shows how much people read this LOL

Grinder12000 · 10-11-11, 09:53 AM

And this is why the system is called Bridgejumper. The games are BUTT UGLY and no one in their right mind would play them - THUS . . . . . the ultimate contrairian system (I actually sold these picks in Football America 15 years ago and had so many charge backs it was silly . . .YET . . won 61% that year).

Recap - this year 67% so far. 20 year numbers of real betting (no back testing) 60.59% (455-296). "C" games are 56.14% "B" games are 62.50% and "A" games are 77.78% Week three of the system is 59.09% (1-4 last year and 16-4 the 4 years BEFORE last year).

System bets against the linemakers who are forced to tweak their lines for the squares who bet emotionally.

"C" game = bet the Eagles +1 on the road vs. Washington. (system 37-29 in this spread area)
"B" game = bet St. Louis +14.5 on the road vs. the Packers (YUCK) system is 25-17 in this spread area 175-105 total.
"A" game = bet Atlanta -4 at home vs. Carolina (system 51-15 in this spread area) Last year "A"s were 3-1

Pray for us!

Grinder12000 · 10-16-11, 03:09 PM

Feeling good - 2-1 this week Bridgejumper is 6-3 this year and pounded the "A" pick (easy money)

"A's" are now 52-15 over 20 years.
"B" (the loser) ow 175-104
"C" (winner) 225-175

PAULYPOKER · 10-17-11, 12:01 AM

Interesting system you have

Grinder12000 · 10-17-11, 10:36 AM

Yea - I'll apologize on your thread - pet peeve - systems trying to double up on losses!! My bad - I'm sorry - I was in a weird funky mood (Brewers).

I'm still not sure where this "touting" thing comes from - isn't EVERYONE with picks touting? Seriously. I think touting is "selling " picks isn't it?

And - hey - record speaks for itself - do with the picks what you want. I consider it "sharing".

I got a system - it's worked for 20 years, I make money why not share

I'm just anti- any betting system where people wrongly believe they will make MORE money because of a betting scheme. Has not been proven to me yet. Might be out there but until I see it with 300+ plays (standard deviation) it's all pretty random.

rb3b3 · 10-17-11, 11:21 AM

this sounds great, the only thing im wondering, is if this system has hit at the pcts you say for 20 years except for one, (i dont doubt you at all) why are you only putting one unit on each game? i know if i had a proven system for 20 years, i would be betting thousands on the games knowing ill finish above 60 pct at end of year. ps, ill tail the a games

Grinder12000 · 10-17-11, 03:00 PM

Easy answer -

1. this system scares the CRAP out of me - all systems fail - I play a lot of systems and all fail, normally in about 4 years.

2. I actually POUND the "A" picks (I won a LOT last Sunday)- way way over what I should. The thing is people should bet what they feel comfortable with. If I said 1 unit on "C" 2 units on "B" and 4 on "A" and "A" loses someone would get angry at me because they were 2-1 and lost money. Money management is up to the individual (and normally their undoing).

3. I'm not a professional dude with thousands of dollars. I have yet to ever win at baseball (even though I have spent thousands of hours analyzing), I seriously crush the first 2 months of the NBA (FU NBA) and that's it. My NCAA football system was gold for 7 years before it ate me for lunch for 2 years.

4. It has not been as strong as it was 15 years ago. The last 3 years have been so-so because there has always been one team that kills it and does way way better then they should (could be the Packers this year). 29-21 and 25-17 before that. Just not many games to get rich on.

The key to the system is how teams do compared to the lines. I won't tell you the big secrets but the KEY is knowing how lines act. Teams always try to get back to equal. Teams that crush the lines sooner or later come back to earth because the linemakers have to adjust for the squares.

Joe Square see's a team beat the spread by 20 for 3 games and views that team as awesome. And teams that lose to the spread by 20 every game SUCK. So when GOOD plays BAD - Joe Square OF COURSE plays the good! WRONG!!!! Play the BAD!!!!!

Normally after the above the doubters come in and say that is stupid which is fine. Last year in the NBA I was doing the same thing - I watched as favorites were ALWAYS winning and I knew that sooner or later the other shoe would drop. I made 67 units flat betting in two months. I know almost nothing about the NBA but I know how humans react and if a person can quantify their reactions to lines . . . . . .

did that make ANY sense?

BTW - not too excited about this week. Looks like a few "C" games - waiting for the lines to harden!

Grinder12000 · 10-18-11, 05:53 PM

All righty then.

This week we have 2 "C" and 2 "B".

This year 6-3 total
"C" games = 4-0 226-175 lifetime
"B" games = 1-1 175-106
"A" games = 1-0 57-16

"C" Jacksonville Home Dog of +7.5 over Baltimore
~~"C" Tampa Bay Home Dog +1 over Da Bears~~ No REAL home or away so I'm not counting this game. BUT - if TB was actually HOME . . . . .

"B" Minnesota Home Dog +8 over The Cheese Heads
"B" St. Louis Away Dog +13 over the Cowboys

So 3 games - and if you are sitting there saying - IS HE CRAZY? yup! That is why it's called Bridgejumper.

Grinder12000 · 10-23-11, 06:31 PM

Week 7 1-1, 7-4 over all this year 459-298 lifetime

As I said - cover small lose huge is how it's normally done. Minnesota covered and the Rams were close until the game started.

Come on Jax Monday night!

punkbhstl · 10-25-11, 01:17 AM

Nice hit on Jax... Looking forward for this week's picks

cheddar327 · 10-25-11, 01:37 AM

Grinder12000 · 10-25-11, 06:11 AM

8-4 this year - good start.

I'll take going 2-1. Crazy weekend in the NFL. Not surprised Jax won outright. Seems to happen a bunch. Many times a Bridgejumper pick will win outright. A number of years ago it picked Indy +11 to beat the Packers and. Pack were player like they are now and a lot of friends said it was the stupidest pick ever. Indy won outright. I became a pariah here in Wisconsin. No one would talk to me LOL

Sort of like this year with the Brewers. Best home record in the majors and I was 0-4 attending games.

Picks will be out Wednesday. A word of caution - this coming week is typically a 50/50 week. Seems the system takes a breather. My gut feeling is that witht he past 4 weeks normally being good

63%
58%
59%
62%

50% this week 42-42

this week the linemakers always are very good and don't adjust the lines as much. Perhaps because the squares take a break? But then again the squares won a lot this week so . . . . .

Grinder12000 · 10-25-11, 06:29 PM

Preliminary looks like we COULD have an "A" game. I almost hope not - looks really scary. Maybe the only play this week. I'll know more once more people are putting in their bets moving the lines a little.

Grinder12000 · 10-26-11, 08:47 AM

OK - here we go - One game this week.

"A" game = 57-16 over the last 20 years

take the Eagles -3.5 at home Sunday Night over Dallas. (I got it at -105 but Bodog has it -100)

This year so far

"A" games 1-0 - lifetime = 57-16 = 78.0%
"B" games 1-2 - lifetime = 177-107 = 62.3%
"C" games 6-2 - lifetime = 228-175 = 56.5%

I feel this is good pick because the Eagles are coming off a bye week, actually covered (as Bridgejumper predicted) their last game so they have a little momentum, are NOT as bad as everybody (the squares) say. Philly is at home on a prime time game and and want to show America they are not bumbling buffoons.

Dallas might have people all excited because of their big cover last week (which Bridgejumper did NOT predict) but, come on . . . it was St. Louis. They are on the road against the Eagles who have their backs against the wall.

Well - at least that is my take on it if I had to make up words to justify when the system is picking. Personally I just bet like a blind monkey and hold my breath. I try not to think to deep into the "why".

Good Luck.

Grinder12000 · 10-30-11, 09:32 PM

Feeling good!

Yup - just quietly winning.

Grinder12000 · 10-31-11, 08:39 AM

OK - I was inputting the numbers and I sort of messed up. 2 games I did not post but they went 1-1 so the over all record is 10-5 as opposed to 9-4.

Looking at next week - LOTS of games!! No "A" games but at this moment there COULD be 6 games next week. I hope every one loved that Philly pick.

My buddy and I have a combined experience of 82 years of sports handicapping. We're like these old guys you saddle up next at a bar and we give quite, wise information.

So - Wednesday I'll have this weeks picks - OH the two games I screwed up on - SHOULD have picked Arizona to cover over Baltimore and would have lost with Cleveland over San Fran.

punkbhstl · 10-31-11, 09:51 AM

Nice pick on Philly... I tailed and won... Thanks

cheddar327 · 10-31-11, 03:34 PM

nice job...thanks!

Grinder12000 · 11-02-11, 08:49 AM

OK - a bunch of "C" games and one "B".

The "C" games are 285-215 lifetime which is 2.83% over break even so don't expect to make your retirement on these - use them as a guide.

"C"
Indy Colts Home Dog +7
NY Jets Away Dog +1
SD Chargers Home Dog +5.5
Washington Home Dog +3.5

"B" game 123-53 lifetime
Cleveland Away Dog +11

"A" games 58-16 (notice that all "A" games are always favorites - weird) BUT there are none :-(

Grinder12000 · 11-07-11, 08:28 AM

Spank me very much! Only game that was close was the Packer game and two pick 6's in the 1st quarter sunk that one! Jets won and the rest were all your typical blowouts which make the system look like a clown system. sigh 1st losing week this year!

Statistically next week is one of the better weeks typically going 49-29. I have no idea if that is a random number of meaning full. I do know that weeks like what we just had I call reset weeks. The strong get stronger, the weak get weaker making the linemakers adjust more . . . in theory.

Grinder12000 · 11-08-11, 10:49 AM

I fond it totally amazing how DOGs went 8-6 this past weekend and Bridgejumper was 1-5 sigh

freakydave · 11-08-11, 12:35 PM

Isn't all that means that the bigger public plays covered?

Grinder12000 · 11-10-11, 05:52 PM

Yea - probably - all I know is that in my pools all teh people near last place won LOL

BIG BIG sucky "A" play this week and this is why I totally hate this system.

"A" 50-16 . . 2-0 this year D D D Dallas -5.5 Home Fav vs. Buffalo - this is likes saying that you are trusting your LIFE to Tony Romo.
"B" 178-109 2-4 this year Cincinnati Home Dog +3 (+100) over Pittsburgh

"C" 228-178 6-5 this year (man the numbers look bad after last week)

Indy Home Dog +3
Tampa Bay Home Dog +3

Pray for us! The good thing is that last week probably scared 80% of followers off so there is less pressure on me this week. I remember a few years ago a group of friends (12) went on an Animal House style trip to Las Vegas - a drunken orgy of gambling and I had 8 games- they bet a ton on the games (like $1K) per game between all of them.

Now $1K is not THAT much for some gamblers but when they are your friends who only bet like once a year . . . . . . I was stressed. Bridgejumper went 7-1 and Harrahs was a very loud place.

BTW - totally off topic. I have a daily photo blog. if you are into photography or just like interesting, unique photography, it's what I do in real life. Fine Art Free Lancing!

http://www.melottephotoimagery.blogspot.com/

punkbhstl · 11-16-11, 01:01 AM

Nice hit on Dallas... Buffalo got crushed! Hopefully there's another "A" bet this week.

Grinder12000 · 11-17-11, 06:37 PM

No "A" pick this week - too bad - depending on those at the moment. In case anybody wonders! I bet 1 unit on "C" 2 units on "B" and 5 units on the "A"

"C" picks
Carolina +7 over SF
SD +3.5 over Da Bears

"B" picks
KC +14.5 over New England
TB +14.5 over Green Bay - Green Bay seems to be a Bridgejumper killer. It's 1-1 so far going against the Cheeseheads but this seems to be a year when a very very offensive team does not let the linemakers catch up to them. BUT . . . . . . I remember 15 years ago when they were on the Superbowl run and Indy was like 2-11 coming into Green Bay at +11 and won outright!! so . . . . .

Grinder12000 · 11-23-11, 11:18 AM

I'm a firm believer that a person can make good money following other peoples picks - I'm also a firm believer that if you do that you put that handicapper on a very short leash. Everybody gets hot and I have no problems following a hot handicapper - I also have no problems cutting the ties QUICK when the hotness wears off.

A blind monkey can win handicapping contests. You can win a capping contest with absolutely zero knowledge of the sport.

ANYWAY - there is an "A" game this week!!!!!

Take Oakland -5 over Da Bears. "A" games are 3-0 this year and 59-16 in the last 20 years

Anyone interested here are the "C" games

Indy Home Dog +3
Jax Jags Home Dog +3.5

It's been a tough 3 weeks - system over all is 16-16 but PERSONALLY with my 1-2-5 betting scheme I'm up 8.4 units because of the "A" games!! WHEW

PAULYPOKER · 11-23-11, 11:29 AM

Thanks Grinder, I'll take you up on that A" Oak-5