Packers 15-1 or better season, 15:1 odds

[pvhawkeye]

Hey guys, looking for advice on a bet my friend offered me since I'm not an NFL expert by any means. He's a big Packers fanboy and he also likes to gamble. After watching the Packers beat the Saints tonight he was bold enough to offer me this bet:

If the Packers finish the regular season 16-0 or 15-1, he wins
If the Packers finish the regular season with 2+ losses, I win
(Keep in mind there's 15 games left for them now, 1-0)

The odds he offered were 15:1. Would you take this bet? Statistically, for this to be favorable for me, the packers would have to go 16-0 or 15-1 less than 6.66% of the time.

If you don't like the odds, what odds would you take this bet at? I could probably get him to drop to 13:1 or 12:1
(Less than 7.7 or 8.3% respectively)

I've looked at final standings of past regular seasons, always seems to be one or maybe two 2 loss teams, there's been only about three teams that have gone 1 loss or better over the past 5-6 years or so.
Thanks!

[BigDeem5]

I have them going 14-2 so no bet.

[HauntingTheHoly]

Let's have a look at their schedule.

[BettingWizard]

no way they go 16-0, so that leaves him with the 15-1. you probably have slight value, but i wouldn't want to book a 15-1 bet that has some chance of cashing

[pvhawkeye]

no way they go 16-0, so that leaves him with the 15-1. you probably have slight value, but i wouldn't want to book a 15-1 bet that has some chance of cashing

This is the way I see it, too. I like the concept of if they happen to be 13-1 or 14-1 towards the end they may start benching starters, but their last 2 games are the bears and lions of all teams at home. HOWEVER, this is why I included the part where I said "I could probably talk him down to 13 or 12:1." Would you take 12:1?? I think it's pretty obvious anyone would take something as extreme as, say, 10:1.

[meader99]

Packers are good and well coached, BUT they aint going 16-0 or 15-1. Probably 13-3 at best.

[8ArIvd5]

when the mlb giants made the playoffs last year i booked a ws bet with a buddy. bit me in the ass.

[brooks85]

If I was running an operation Id take that action all day. The saints don't have a top D and even when they did it was skewed like the '05 bengals because of all the positive turnovers, a silly amount.

[pvhawkeye]

Alright, new bet:
If the packers lose 3 or more I win, If they lose 2 or less he wins. Odds 5:1

[pvhawkeye]

Alright, new bet:
If the packers lose 3 or more I win, If they lose 2 or less he wins. Odds 5:1