LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

One point loss 45-7....damn fumbled punt was the sole difference in this game. Should have just pounded the Pack....

Tough loss...

[SlickRick1382]

One point loss 45-7....damn fumbled punt was the sole difference in this game. Should have just pounded the Pack.... Tough loss...

This loss was gut wrenching. I thought we had it in the bag when the 1H ended 17-0. Shouldn't of placed extra units on it. xD

Here's looking forward to tomorrow !!!

[djpremier36]

Lions have no running back and a qb with a broken throwing hand in Stafford, while their defense remains one of the best in the league. On the other side, the long awaited Cam Newton regression seems to be here now that teams have caught up with the option capabilities. Plus, the panther defense is not great, but they do have some potential according to the advanced stats. The under was hit right at the open and has dropped from the 48.5-48 range to the 47.5-47 range indicating early money on the under. Why do you like the over?

The lack of run offense from Detroit is a big reason why I like this over. Lions will air it out, as usual, and that will cause more in-completions which will lead to more clock stoppages. Panthers aren't going to stop scoring all of sudden. Too many weapons on the ground and in the air to be shut down by the Lions fading defense. Panthers will also be ready to go after getting stomped by Tennessee. Lions should be motivated as well after the turnovers and their own ass kicking they received. 47 is a high number but the line opened at 49 for a reason I believe and it looks like the Joe's are the reason that it's gone down. I see a 31-27 type of game. BOL!

[Fanatik]

I love the attention to the key numbers on this thread... Very smart play! But, you always have to take into account that the casinos are still standing for a reason; in the end, they beat the sharps... But, LTA, you are one hell of a capper!

[Love The Action]

The lack of run offense from Detroit is a big reason why I like this over. Lions will air it out, as usual, and that will cause more in-completions which will lead to more clock stoppages. Panthers aren't going to stop scoring all of sudden. Too many weapons on the ground and in the air to be shut down by the Lions fading defense. Panthers will also be ready to go after getting stomped by Tennessee. Lions should be motivated as well after the turnovers and their own ass kicking they received. 47 is a high number but the line opened at 49 for a reason I believe and it looks like the Joe's are the reason that it's gone down. I see a 31-27 type of game. BOL!

I get your "pace" argument and agree. There will be a ton of pass attempts in this game, which is something I weighed.

However, I strongly disagree with your assessment that the Lions defense is fading. This is a defense currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. The point given up against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game.

That defensive line of Fairly and Suh are just taking shape. These guys are big, strong, fast and mean. I like that nasty attitude in my defensive line. The Detroit defense is beginning to make a name for themselves.

As to your comment about the "Joe's" betting, I would strongly disagree. The "public" if you want to use that term -- which I generally don't -- rarely bets on Monday. Early bettors are generally people who have done their homework, are looking for a particular number and jump on the early value. Otherwise, they are looking to set up for a buy back later in the week and arbing. However, "Joe Public" as you refer, does not generally bet on Monday, instead waiting till game day to crack open a beer and call his bookie at around 12:30 pm. Generally, early money is sharp money in one form or the other -- and by sharp, I merely mean educated as to the games, situations, stats, power rankings, line movement modelers, etc.

Consequently, I would argue that "early" money is often more influential -- or at least should be -- than any other phase of the betting cycle, except for perhaps late steam of a point or more.

Plus, by the end of the week, I would wager that the betting percentages will show a 65/35 split of money in favor of the over in this game, without any movement in that direction, which will mean this early move on the under will have been the revered RLM that so many love to follow.

My only concern about this game is Carolina's week defense, but I'm hoping the injury to Stafford will affect his accuracy enough so to keep Detroit somewhat in check. I have this game set at 45 and I'm getting 48 or better. I expect that this game will close around 46 or perhaps make a late move to 46.5 or 47 at some outlets. As of now, however, I fully expect to beat the closer.

Good luck DJ!

[djpremier36]

I'm no totals expert by any means so you should be happy that I like the over, lol.

Other than that over I'm really liking the Falcons -6 and Ravens -7.

Any thoughts on these game?

BTW, I have no idea what Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% mean, lol.

[Donnie Brasco]

Panthers/lions down to 47!

[Trivial]

One point loss 45-7....damn fumbled punt was the sole difference in this game. Should have just pounded the Pack....

Tough loss...

Ya. I should have gone with my teaser gut also and pounded the pack. Minny did nothing to come close to the team over. How could I think they would? I could have defended better than the whole Minny team did. I can guarantee I would not have 3rd and long almost every posession. I think I might stay away until playoffs from placing any wagers. This time of year can be dangerous for me from past history and every year I say I wont bet the last 6 weeks and every year I do and regret it. This year, I might just stay away. I do great in playoffs and want to be profitable this year and won't at this rate.

I will be watching and continuing to learn. I typically fail to consider teams that have already earned what they needed, etc. Teams that are playing with players with pride instead of full capabilities with injuries. I really want to learn from all of you how to handle this time of year. I am hoping everyone agrees that start, mid and end season wagering all have unique aspects to them.

[MrXYZ]

Some excellent advice LTA, definitely the smartest discussions I've come across in this forum are on your thread. I gotta add how important it is to have the discipline to walk away when you don't like the number being offered by the books. Or play small if you can't help yourself.

It took a long time for me to realise the obvious, that the books main concern is simply about numbers, balancing the action on both sides for a profit and letting randomness do its thing. They take their cut from the day's card and move on while some poor soul bangs his head & tears up his ticket after a fumble or a buzzer beater.

The Packers/Vikings game's an excellent example as it one can argue convincingly for either side of the spread or the total. I took the over at 49.5 but can't claim any special insight, it just went my way this time. At 50 or 51 I would've passed on it & missed out on the cash.

[Love The Action]

Some excellent advice LTA, definitely the smartest discussions I've come across in this forum are on your thread. I gotta add how important it is to have the discipline to walk away when you don't like the number being offered by the books. Or play small if you can't help yourself.

It took a long time for me to realise the obvious, that the books main concern is simply about numbers, balancing the action on both sides for a profit and letting randomness do its thing. They take their cut from the day's card and move on while some poor soul bangs his head & tears up his ticket after a fumble or a buzzer beater.

The Packers/Vikings game's an excellent example as it one can argue convincingly for either side of the spread or the total. I took the over at 49.5 but can't claim any special insight, it just went my way this time. At 50 or 51 I would've passed on it & missed out on the cash.

Well said

[Trivial]

Some excellent advice LTA, definitely the smartest discussions I've come across in this forum are on your thread. I gotta add how important it is to have the discipline to walk away when you don't like the number being offered by the books. Or play small if you can't help yourself.

It took a long time for me to realise the obvious, that the books main concern is simply about numbers, balancing the action on both sides for a profit and letting randomness do its thing. They take their cut from the day's card and move on while some poor soul bangs his head & tears up his ticket after a fumble or a buzzer beater.

The Packers/Vikings game's an excellent example as it one can argue convincingly for either side of the spread or the total. I took the over at 49.5 but can't claim any special insight, it just went my way this time. At 50 or 51 I would've passed on it & missed out on the cash.

Very well said. I used to have 3 books and one went south, and one other I finally got a payout after a year of waiting. So at week 3, I was down to 1 book.

This thread has taught me more this year than I ever thought possible. Everything from key numbers to book shopping (I now have 5 books) to what to be concerned with (like last night).

The 5 books allow me to line shop with square vs sharp and in between.

I really wish LTA would be an SBR Pro so I can send him some points he can use to cash in for something nice for his family. They "ALL" deserve something nice after this kind of help and dedication.

[TomatoFace]

ca$h it

[TomatoFace]

I really liked the 5 unit play on Cowboys/Bills over. I went to high school with David Nelson. Glad he contributed to us winning that bet. I'll be looking for another 3+ unit play LTA.. Nice job

[Love The Action]

I really liked the 5 unit play on Cowboys/Bills over. I went to high school with David Nelson. Glad he contributed to us winning that bet. I'll be looking for another 3+ unit play LTA.. Nice job

I have a 3x play for tonight posted in my NCAAF thread. Glad I could help. Good luck

[nmodi]

Hi LTA,

your thoughts on SD/CHI ov 45?

[bigballer891]

Some excellent advice LTA, definitely the smartest discussions I've come across in this forum are on your thread. I gotta add how important it is to have the discipline to walk away when you don't like the number being offered by the books. Or play small if you can't help yourself.

It took a long time for me to realise the obvious, that the books main concern is simply about numbers, balancing the action on both sides for a profit and letting randomness do its thing. They take their cut from the day's card and move on while some poor soul bangs his head & tears up his ticket after a fumble or a buzzer beater.

The Packers/Vikings game's an excellent example as it one can argue convincingly for either side of the spread or the total. I took the over at 49.5 but can't claim any special insight, it just went my way this time. At 50 or 51 I would've passed on it & missed out on the cash.

That is not entirely true. In fact, most of the time, the books will need one side to make money. It is very rare that the $ is split 50/50. Not to mention, if books lived just off the "juice" that would not be enough to be profitable. Books will take sides, just like bettors. It is simply not profitable for them to try and set even action for every game nor is it realisitic for that to happen anyways. GL.

[upscope]

That is not entirely true. In fact, most of the time, the books will need one side to make money. It is very rare that the $ is split 50/50. Not to mention, if books lived just off the "juice" that would not be enough to be profitable. Books will take sides, just like bettors. It is simply not profitable for them to try and set even action for every game nor is it realisitic for that to happen anyways. GL.

Books would be more than happy to have = amount of $$ on every single game. They would take the free juice & combine it with where they make the majority of their profits....parlays & teasers....& be more than happy.
You may be correct that the juice earned off a 50/50 split may not be "enough" for them?? But, the near long term guarantee profit off of parlays & teasers would be.

[RAVENSFAN]

Any leans or plays on TNF?

[Exxpresso]

I like the Broncos and the under tomorrow. What do you think LTA ?

[Trivial]

I like the Broncos and the under tomorrow. What do you think LTA ?

I definitely like the Broncos in this spot. Prime time game and taking advantage of potentially a Jets team in a downward spiral (Sorry Red). Broncos have a high level of momentum and motivation. Not to say the Jets don't as losing tonight will give NE a huge advantage, but I just can't bet on the Jets in this one.

I do like the UNDER also but I worry that the value is gone as it us already UNDER the very key number of 41 (40 in most places) so I think my only play is Broncos or stay away.

Best of luck.

[MrXYZ]

A 21-17 final score is possible but the value's in the over at 40 & worth a shot IMO. I'm taking it for 0.5x. Really looking forward to this game!

Good luck everyone

[pacocn]

Lta, i hit the Broncos at + 6.5 (1x)

[bleedtoledo]

I dunno..if I had to choose it would be broncs with the points, though I do think jets will win. It's hard to trust dirty Sanchez though. Also the jets will be without that old horse tomlinson.

Not sure on status of broncos 2 backs, but I bet at least one will play.

I wouldn't play the over either, I could see the broncs scoring next to nothing in this game. We'll have to see if Rex is smart enough to stop a college offense. Also, hey Rex - your schtick was funny at first, endearing even. But now you're beating a dead horse. STFU.

[NoBigDeal74]

Coming from one of tebows biggest fans/supporters I just can't see the Broncos staying close in this game. The jets can't lose any more games. The backs are out or digged up going against a pissed off defense. They are Gunna hold the Broncos to ten. Bc u know my man tebow always finds his way to the house

[bleedtoledo]

I could see Tebow (who, I too, am a fan of) being sacked out of this game, injured. Enter Kyle Orten, who wins the game on the final drive! Wouldn't surprise.

Dirty Sanchez, every time I bet with or against him..he'll find a way to screw me. Plus, Tebow has Jesus on His side, which can't hurt.

[Donnie Brasco]

I hope we see 7 before kickoff. Not taking it less than that.

[NoBigDeal74]

Hahahahahahahahaha so true toledo. I can't stand sanchez. But I think the jets d alone will cover the -4 I got the game at

[mbcoutinho]

Deleted... Wrong topic, sorry.

[Love The Action]

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL ACTION TEASER (Not for records win or lose)

Jets PK/Under (46) (-110)

I love the Jets to win this game, but don't trust them over -4.5. I also like the under and would have played this at 41 or better. That number never materialized. I expect the Jets to shut down Tebow's option offense and force him to pass. That won't be pretty. I expect a pretty easy victory by the Jets, but I'll stick to an action teaser on this one. Good luck.

[shocktopme]

.

I like em both LTA!!!!You shoulda put on record my friend!!!!!Sports heaven tonight!!!NFL,2 CFB games,CBB and Presidents cup!!!!!Have a good one bud

[pacocn]

Lta, if you are still up jump all over the 2nd
half over 17.5 you know these teams can't score
3-3 first Half. Lets get this easy money.

[suicidekings]

Consequently, I would argue that "early" money is often more influential -- or at least should be -- than any other phase of the betting cycle, except for perhaps late steam of a point or more.

"Gameday limits being raised to max" money. That's when the guys with the deepest pockets and the strongest opinions speak the loudest.

[pacocn]

Lta, nice call on the under, I also cashed
the Broncos +6.5 and the 2nd H Over 17.5

[peterrr]

any early sunday picks LTA?

[Redscot]

I definitely like the Broncos in this spot. Prime time game and taking advantage of potentially a Jets team in a downward spiral (Sorry Red). Broncos have a high level of momentum and motivation. Not to say the Jets don't as losing tonight will give NE a huge advantage, but I just can't bet on the Jets in this one.

I do like the UNDER also but I worry that the value is gone as it us already UNDER the very key number of 41 (40 in most places) so I think my only play is Broncos or stay away.

Best of luck.

You called it Triv. I was very uncomfortable about the game, but thought we'd find a way to win ugly. Ironic that we gave them incredible field position all game and they couldn't do squat with it....then we pin them down and they go 90+ yards for the win .....Not sure what was worse the play call or the execution on Tebows TD run....Obviously Sanchez's pick 6 was the tide turner......Not looking good for gang green that's for sure...I think this will be Schottenheimers last year.

Oh, and how good is this Von Miller kid! Wow!