Office Pool Guy's 2011 Survivor Picks

[officepoolguy]

I am back for another year of Survivor Picks. Last year I got through week 9 before the G-Men lost it for me at home. This year looks on paper to be one of the most difficult to predict. Keep in mind my following disclaimer:

There are many different strategies to winning a Survivor Pool...so I do not claim that my strategy is the only one out there but I am going to post my weekly Survivor picks here and anyone interested can follow them.

I have been successful in the past and I want to lay out my strategy so you know if this thread will work for you:

1) I look ahead at the schedule and try to get a "rough" map of my picks. I feel this is the only way to get an advantage late in the Survivor pool. I want to have good teams at the end when it becomes more predictable and others are out of options.

2) I do not always play the home team. Home teams do lose over 40% of the time so I don't automatically pick a home team.

3) I do not always go with the largest favorite. This is the NFL remember.

4) I try to stay away from divisional games and Monday/Thursday games as much as possible.

5) I do research and use trends and statistics.


Anyway, for what it is worth here is my Week 1 Pick, let me know what you think:

WEEK 1 Survivor Pick

San Diego


rough map through week 8:

week 2: Pittsburgh
week 3: New England
week 4: Chicago
week 5: Philadelphia
week 6: Atlanta
week 7: Dallas (tough call)
week 8: Baltimore

thanks and good luck

[Jedi Mind Picks]

largest favorite,but a scary pick, they usually play shakey in the early season, last year a lot of people picked them in my pool week 1 and went out!!!

plus i wouldnt sleep on peterson and mcnab plus a decent defence...

Ive been looking at cardnals to win against the panthers... nice to get in early with a lower ranked team and save better teams for later weeks! cam newton will have to win his rookie game on the road against a defence looking to jump routes and capitalize on his mistakes at home plus klob looking to start well throwing to larry fitzgerald. check it out!!!

[officepoolguy]

thanks for the comments...True about San Diego early but those that picked them last year in week 1 went against three important rules in survivor pools:
1. Dont play divisional games
2. Avoid road teams if possible
3. Avoid Monday/Thursday games

So I would not be afraid of them this year.

About Arizona... not sure i would put all my hopes on an Arizona team (who I do think will be better this year) that was under .500 last year, has a new qb and new offensive coordinator. They are playing a horrible team but remember Carolina's o-line was destroyed by injuries last year and has the x-factor in Newton.

One of my strategies is to go with good qbs at home and Rivers is one of the best...also the Charger defense is underrated and will blitz the heck out of McNabb. Also Minnesota may be without one of its top defensive players Kevin Williams. San Diego looks like the surest pick of the week.

[Jedi Mind Picks]

I am torn between maybe taking the texans against the colts... no peyton manning is very tempting, and with texas offence and a so called improved defence... I have more deciding to do... Good luck this week bye the way!

[Stevedore]

I have two picks in my league, both on SD or would you split them up?

[slacker00]

I'm going Houston week 1, as long as Peyton is out. Can't trust SD early in the season and Minny is better than people think.

[officepoolguy]

I would wait till later weeks to split up picks because it is hard enough picking one NFL game let alone two...I understand the Houston pick but just hate playing divisional games especially since the Colts have won 16 of the 18 meetings and all the games are close. I truly feel San Diego is the pick. Good Luck to all though.

[Rookie-Capper]

arizona I dont think cam is ready yet

[slacker00]

arizona I dont think cam is ready yet

This is a great point. Carolina is completely rebuilding while AZ is reloading w/ Kolb > Newton FTW.

I understand the Houston pick but just hate playing divisional games especially since the Colts have won 16 of the 18 meetings and all the games are close.

Colts are simply not the same team without Peyton. Data from Peyton v.s. Carr is irrelevant, it'll be Painter/Collins v.s. Shaub.

[Gameboy]

I am back for another year of Survivor Picks. Last year I got through week 9 before the G-Men lost it for me at home. This year looks on paper to be one of the most difficult to predict. Keep in mind my following disclaimer:

There are many different strategies to winning a Survivor Pool...so I do not claim that my strategy is the only one out there but I am going to post my weekly Survivor picks here and anyone interested can follow them.

I have been successful in the past and I want to lay out my strategy so you know if this thread will work for you:

1) I look ahead at the schedule and try to get a "rough" map of my picks. I feel this is the only way to get an advantage late in the Survivor pool. I want to have good teams at the end when it becomes more predictable and others are out of options.

2) I do not always play the home team. Home teams do lose over 40% of the time so I don't automatically pick a home team.

3) I do not always go with the largest favorite. This is the NFL remember.

4) I try to stay away from divisional games and Monday/Thursday games as much as possible.

5) I do research and use trends and statistics.


Anyway, for what it is worth here is my Week 1 Pick, let me know what you think:

WEEK 1 Survivor Pick

San Diego


rough map through week 8:

week 2: Pittsburgh
week 3: New England
week 4: Chicago
week 5: Philadelphia
week 6: Atlanta
week 7: Dallas (tough call)
week 8: Baltimore

thanks and good luck

isn't wk. 3 new england a div. gm.

[officepoolguy]

Yeah it is...I TRY not to pick a divisional game. Week 3 there are not many viable options in non divisional games. New England should beat Buffalo.

[Jedi Mind Picks]

arizona I dont think cam is ready yet

[KJ CottonChopper]

Thanks officepool! Your insight has been a big help in the past. Looking forward to another great year!
I'm in 2 different pools so I'm going SD and GB. Good luck all!!!

[ngates815]

Week 1 thoughts on Kansas City over Buffalo.

Don't feel comfortable taking SD vs Minny. Peterson can go off at any given time. Who knows how Mcnabb will perform.

[slacker00]

Thanks officepool! Your insight has been a big help in the past. Looking forward to another great year!
I'm in 2 different pools so I'm going SD and GB. Good luck all!!!

Wow man, could you pick a worse spot to take GB?! The Saints are no gimme in this spot.


If anyone else still on the fence, formerly retired QB Kerry Collins was announced as starter for the Indy @ Houston game. If that isn't enough, data mine stats of how Kerry Collins has fared against Wade Phillips over his career. It'll blow your mind. Kerry Collins has only 1 victory in 8 starts against Wade Phillips. The last time Kerry Collins saw Wade Phillips, he was 6-19 for 57 yards 0 TDs 2 ints and was eventually removed from the game in a 40-7 rout. Indy fans might as well start calling for Curtis Painter right now.

[KJ CottonChopper]

Yea, I know slacker00, kinda dangerous. Only good thing is, in this particular pool, you can have multiple entries with the deadline the last game Monday night. Hoping they win, but if they don't, I'll make another selection for Sunday or Monday. Good luck guys and gals!!!

[low Q]

Hey OPG - good to see you back in Survivor mode! I'm on the Chargers too! I see 3 picks for McNabb. FOOTBALL IS BACK!! WOOOO!

[thenatti]

Arizona is the play

[officepoolguy]

with the news about payton out I can see going with houston but I am going to stick with the non division game and san diego.

[flocko76]

what do you think about taking cleveland against a poopy cincy team?

[officepoolguy]

Two bad divisional teams I would stay away...cleveland should win but I think the value is elsewhere

[Jedi Mind Picks]

Week 1 thoughts on Kansas City over Buffalo. Don't feel comfortable taking SD vs Minny. Peterson can go off at any given time. Who knows how Mcnabb will perform.

i would stay very far away from this pick

[officepoolguy]

Week 1: San Diego

Well it looks like Houston was the best pick this week but San Diego took care of business allowing us to move on to week 2. Those on Cleveland (which was the 2nd most picked team in both my pools) wished they picked a good team in a non divisional game and learned a valuable lesson. Anyway, hope you all are still alive. I will be posting my pick later in the week but the early leans Pittsburgh, Green Bay or Baltimore.

[officepoolguy]

Week 2 Survivor Pick

Week 2 Survivor Pick

Pittsburgh

Tough call between Green Bay and Pittsburgh but I have to go with the more pissed off team. Pittsburgh is going to be fighting mad when they host the Hawks this weekend. Expect them to pound Seattle into submission. There are a few other reasons to like this pick this week.

1. Seattle is horrible on the road (in fact I have them winning no more than 4 games all season)

2. Seattle has to travel across the country for an early game...this is never a good thing and Seattle is again horrible in these situations.

3. Pittsburgh is an experienced team and will bounce back with vengence.

4. Seattle will not be able to protect Jackson (who was sacked 5 times by an poor San Fran team).

5. I love playing teams that turn the ball over more than their fair share...things tend to even out...I expect no more than 1 turnover this week.

6. Seattle will get NO pressure on Big Ben so he should light it up this week

7. We will be able to save Green Bay for a week that we will need the best team in football.

Pittsburgh is the pick...next week we will have a much more difficult decision.

Good luck to all.

Office Pool Guy

[beanbag]

go pitt!

[low Q]

2 for 2 so far.... great Job! For week 3.... what do you think about Tennesse? I know you are leaning on New England.... but, the Bills are looking good... and it's in their yard!

[officepoolguy]

Sorry for the late pick...nobody commented last week and this week it was my wife and boys birthday so I almost said screw it. BUT better late then never i guess.

I am going to stick with my initial thoughts and go with New England even though they are on the road and in division. I want to save Baltimore for a later week and I just cant see Buffalo beating the Pats. Buffalo has played two crappy teams and will have a hard time stopping Brady. This is the toughest week so far and with all the craziness of the NFL who knows what will happen. Keep your fingers crossed.

Week 3 Survivor
New England

[CHAZ]

That was a tough one.

[Brutus84]

What a dumb pick.

[face]

good luck next year.

[BettingWizard]

[CHAZ]

Did you give up on us? I enjoy seeing your picks and thoughts for the week.

[pneborg]

Hi Everyone. I see week 5's pick is for the Eagles to beat Buffalo. Given Philly's ongoing 4th quarter deconstruction does anyone think this week's pick should be revised? Even though Buffalo's defense is very weak, the Eagles find new ways to loose a game each week. Thank you in advance for your thoughts and feedback

[slacker00]

Week 5, I'm going with the Giants. They are hosting Seattle which is terrible away from home and making the famous and brutal West-to-East road trip. The Giants can be erratic, but they take care of business at home against this far inferior Seattle team.

If you're into saving teams, you might want to look at Minny this week. They should have no problem with Arizona coming to town and Minnesota has played tough despite being 0-4. All of Minny's problems lie in McNabb's second half performances, but at home against a weak Arizona secondary should give McNabb new life and this game definitely deserves a look.

Teams I've used so far: Hou, Pitt, SD, GB

[saints1856]

I'm going with the Patriots for my Survivor Pick this week. But I do agree with the Giants pick as well