2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[Creative303]

I made a two team teaser bet, baltimore -4 pts and over 32 1/2 pts. It seems like a relatively safe bet..

[Calvani]

Thanks for all of the positive reinforcements after the 20* loss last night. It was the second worse loss in the history of the Colts franchise. As I stated I wanted the score to get to 14-0 Saints, which it did. I truly thought they would just manage the game from that point on and not look to embarrass the Colts. Anyway, starting the work for tonight's game between the Ravens and the Jags. I do believe you will see the public pounding the Ravens in the after of last night's 62-7 win by the double digit favorite.

According to my database, that 14 point line marked the single highest Saints line in their franchise. Somewhat surprising to me given their playoff runs you would think there had to be a 17 pointer in there somewhere.

Will be back with more throughout the day.

It may have had something to do with the 55pts the Colts put up on the Saints last time they played there (2003). Revenge game?

[spike1519]

John I set up an S.Q.L database and am now working on a H.T.M.L user interface that allows you to "mine" information based on limitless input inquiry's. (E.X. won last 5 games by 6 or more points and going into bye week) it has capacity to go back 15 years in stat's and am just curious where can you download these past stat's at (any for free?) also there has to be hundreds of query's to a database already written and I could just add my own spec's to them to make them relevant to my own set of inquiry's! do you know of anywhere where such inquiry's would be available? and this has got to be at least somewhat simular to what your doing with a nueral network which I'm assuming is only mining a data set for information of past circumstances? I guess where to get updated data at? would be most prevalant question?.........spike, and thank you for all your help!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PickMeAwinner]

I hoping jags can win get some of my money back

[John Ryan]

Wow!. Is there been an uglier game. William Hill right now has Baltimore -3 -111 and if you have an account there I would bang out a sizable play. The majority though is Baltimore -7.. or 7 1/2 . Total right where I expected at that 17 1/2 point level.

I think taking Baltimore -7 is worth a 3* amount for the second half. JAX is not doing anything real special on defense. It is the failure of Flacco and offense to adjust and execute. You can bet they are getting any earful as we speak. JAX has not shown anything great on offense so far. So.. Baltimore -7 or if you have a William Hill account get them for a big amount at -3 -111.

[John Ryan]

Legends is now at -7 -105.. That looks very attractive to me. Good luck in the second half.

[John Ryan]

It may have had something to do with the 55pts the Colts put up on the Saints last time they played there (2003). Revenge game?

Nice. Very nice. and I bet you may be right.

[PickMeAwinner]

The game is not over but Im feeling good about this

[Creative303]

My bet doesn't look safe at all. If anything it looks pretty bad at the moment.. I should've just bet under.

[spike1519]

Let's face it tonight was a Kinda "force it" bet, it didn't look good from the beginning all you could do is make up ground with it, also this game offered no real play's from the onset but I hope you all did well, And look forward to next week we can regroup and get some better action thank's as alway's John for helpin us and being there when it count's the most!!!!!!!!!!!!! spike!

[PickMeAwinner]

I didn't let Sunday nights game ruin my week, made an executive decision and stuck to my original play of Jags +10.
I'm so glad I didn't try to get greedy and parlay my bet cause I liked the over. Did gain more confidence for next week

[John Ryan]

John I set up an S.Q.L database and am now working on a H.T.M.L user interface that allows you to "mine" information based on limitless input inquiry's. (E.X. won last 5 games by 6 or more points and going into bye week) it has capacity to go back 15 years in stat's and am just curious where can you download these past stat's at (any for free?) also there has to be hundreds of query's to a database already written and I could just add my own spec's to them to make them relevant to my own set of inquiry's! do you know of anywhere where such inquiry's would be available? and this has got to be at least somewhat simular to what your doing with a nueral network which I'm assuming is only mining a data set for information of past circumstances? I guess where to get updated data at? would be most prevalant question?.........spike, and thank you for all your help!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I pay a fee to a private sports company. Stats LLC is a reliable source.

With the database, you can implement back propagation and then weight the variables based on the results for the 'learning' phase of the model. the majority of variables must have a current period weighting to reflect the current game environment.

[John Ryan]

I didn't let Sunday nights game ruin my week, made an executive decision and stuck to my original play of Jags +10.
I'm so glad I didn't try to get greedy and parlay my bet cause I liked the over. Did gain more confidence for next week

Awesome call! don't allow a loss or a win to have a negative impact on your future betting decisions. I can't stress enough how important it is to put wins and losses behind you. The bigger the win or loss the more important it is to keep the brain in 'neutral' and not get to overwhelmed one way or another. Confidence is something that should be static and your handicapping methods should be repetitive each week. That other thing called emotion can never be a part of any decision. Simply because I lost big in a game involving the Saints and the Colts does not mean that I will refuse or lessen another 'under' opportunity to be played. Many 'players' get angry when a team 'screws them' and they then toss them aside as a team that they will never take a risk with ever again.

[John Ryan]

Let's face it tonight was a Kinda "force it" bet, it didn't look good from the beginning all you could do is make up ground with it, also this game offered no real play's from the onset but I hope you all did well, And look forward to next week we can regroup and get some better action thank's as alway's John for helpin us and being there when it count's the most!!!!!!!!!!!!! spike!

I'll keep doing my best always. Thanks

[panikpoker]

john what are you more confident in your nfl plays or college?

[wblgolfer59]

After watching Johns Picks and Vids its becoming clear that this guy is extreamly honest and a straight shooter who seemes more involved in looking at his picks before and after in an honest light in an attempt to better his own skills and not try to give some line of BS on a loss claiming it should have been a win. He seems to not have a big ego and makes plays and decision at a very level state of mind. Thanks John

[NHL_freak]

What is you record this year?

[rexieboy]

This week's picks

I am new to the Forum today. John, when do you normally post your picks for this week's NFL games. I look forward to seeing them.

[John Ryan]

I am new to the Forum today. John, when do you normally post your picks for this week's NFL games. I look forward to seeing them.

Friday around 6:00 PM ET. I always pre-announce it though. Also, make sure you check back often during the week for 'extra' facts and research from several of the other posters here on the thread. The exchange of information has made this a great thread. Feel free to offer your initial look at the week's card.

[rexieboy]

One more question from this newbie (I don't want to be pest). Why do you not have these posts ordered as they are posted, so that when someone logs in, the most recent post appears at the top of Page 1, with older posts beneath? You know ... "the first shall be last and the last shall be first".

[John Ryan]

I would...john ryan has won me $$$$$ this year...quite a bit actually...thanks john!!!

Thanks Mike. Glad it has worked in your favor.

For the record: 21-11 ATS with 5* plays for 66% ATS, 1-0 with 10* release and 1-1 ATS with 20* releases

[John Ryan]

One more question from this newbie (I don't want to be pest). Why do you not have these posts ordered as they are posted, so that when someone logs in, the most recent post appears at the top of Page 1, with older posts beneath? You know ... "the first shall be last and the last shall be first".

Not sure at all, that would be a good question to send to SBR though.

[John Ryan]

After watching Johns Picks and Vids its becoming clear that this guy is extreamly honest and a straight shooter who seemes more involved in looking at his picks before and after in an honest light in an attempt to better his own skills and not try to give some line of BS on a loss claiming it should have been a win. He seems to not have a big ego and makes plays and decision at a very level state of mind. Thanks John

Thanks. Appreciate that.

[John Ryan]

john what are you more confident in your nfl plays or college?

I never am more confident in one sports than another although some years CFB does better and other years NFL does better. I have a goal to make a significant profit in both sports combined. being level headed is a critical feature of strong sports wagerers. Just last night I played a 15* Titan on Columbus - winless Columbus.. Looked nuts at the time, but I do not get caught up with just one play. I know that if I continue to bet with discipline that the profits will take care of themselves. The same applies to NHL dog that end up getting blown out. The goal is end the season with big increases in the bankroll and one day of plays will have a very small affect on that outcome down the road.

[rexieboy]

Here are my picks for Sunday, pending any breaking news:

Minn/Car Over, Balt, NO, NYG - teased 13.

Jacksonville/Hou Under, NE/Pitt Over, Phil - teased 10

NE+SF Parlay

[upscope]

Here are my picks for Sunday, pending any breaking news:

Minn/Car Over, Balt, NO, NYG - teased 13.

Jacksonville/Hou Under, NE/Pitt Over, Phil - teased 10

NE+SF Parlay

Is anybody on this form capable of betting an underdog??

[Greyraptor]

Is anybody on this form capable of betting an underdog??

Actually I am considering taking St. Louis +14. Line may even get better closer to game time. Couple of things about that game:
1) New Orleans is only 1-8 off a double digit ats win vs. .333<opp such as Indy (.000) last week when they won 62-7
2) Teams this year that have lost on the road the previous week by 13 or greater points are covering 5-1 the next week when returning home. Last week there were three teams that fit into this: Minnesota, Miami, and Carolina. The only team NOT to cover so far this year was Miami and it took a 15 point 4th quarter comeback by Denver to do it. Carolina was an outright dog win and Minnesota was an easy cover.

Just food for thought.

[PickMeAwinner]

Actually I am considering taking St. Louis +14. Line may even get better closer to game time. Couple of things about that game:
1) New Orleans is only 1-8 off a double digit ats win vs. .333<opp such as Indy (.000) last week when they won 62-7
2) Teams this year that have lost on the road the previous week by 13 or greater points are covering 5-1 the next week when returning home. Last week there were three teams that fit into this: Minnesota, Miami, and Carolina. The only team NOT to cover so far this year was Miami and it took a 15 point 4th quarter comeback by Denver to do it. Carolina was an outright dog win and Minnesota was an easy cover.

Just food for thought.

I was thinking about the taking St. louis +14 as well cause I never really liked New Orleans on the road, but just seeing how horrible the Rams are offensively I will simply pass on this one. New Orleans this year covered their first 14 point spread vs the Colts. I tell you what I do like, Jacksonville on the road vs Houston -9.5. I see the public are going to go crazy because of Houston big win over the Titans 47-7 which will only give more pts to JAX. I know Jacksonville has struggled offensively but I really feel they can get something going with the run game with MJD. JAGS @ Cinci was about to put up 20 pts and of course manage to cover against Baltimore and Pit back to back weeks. It almost seems that Houston can pull it off but when I watch them play with the Titans, its was clear to me that Tenn didn't even try.

Of course it wouldn't be a bad pick STL+14 because of what happened the Saints last time they came to the west coast facing Seattle in the play-offs favored by 14.

[Greyraptor]

I was thinking about the taking St. louis +14 as well cause I never really liked New Orleans on the road, but just seeing how horrible the Rams are offensively I will simply pass on this one. New Orleans this year covered their first 14 point spread vs the Colts. I tell you what I do like, Jacksonville on the road vs Houston -9.5. I see the public are going to go crazy because of Houston big win over the Titans 47-7 which will only give more pts to JAX. I know Jacksonville has struggled offensively but I really feel they can get something going with the run game with MJD. JAGS @ Cinci was about to put up 20 pts and of course manage to cover against Baltimore and Pit back to back weeks. It almost seems that Houston can pull it off but when I watch them play with the Titans, its was clear to me that Tenn didn't even try.

Of course it wouldn't be a bad pick STL+14 because of what happened the Saints last time they came to the west coast facing Seattle in the play-offs favored by 14.

Good point about that west coast trip to Seattle. I agree with you on your JAX analysis and I am going to wait because I think the line will move more towards Jacksonville with the public backing the favored Texans. It may be a no play with me just because of the uncertainty surrounding the return of Andre Johnson.

[SlickRick1382]

Good point about that west coast trip to Seattle. I agree with you on your JAX analysis and I am going to wait because I think the line will move more towards Jacksonville with the public backing the favored Texans. It may be a no play with me just because of the uncertainty surrounding the return of Andre Johnson.

I think that the Houston offense is more explosive than the Ravens. The other side is obviously their defense isn't as good. Even still I'd love a line move on the jags and would def take them.

[PickMeAwinner]

I think that the Houston offense is more explosive than the Ravens. The other side is obviously their defense isn't as good. Even still I'd love a line move on the jags and would def take them.

Houston show a lot of weakness against the Run they let the Raider take over in Houston with the run and special teams. I believe the JAGS will go to Houston with the same mind set and keep the game close. Texans got beat bad when playing Baltimore when they couldn't get the ground game going.

[PickMeAwinner]

Awesome call! don't allow a loss or a win to have a negative impact on your future betting decisions. I can't stress enough how important it is to put wins and losses behind you. The bigger the win or loss the more important it is to keep the brain in 'neutral' and not get to overwhelmed one way or another. Confidence is something that should be static and your handicapping methods should be repetitive each week. That other thing called emotion can never be a part of any decision. Simply because I lost big in a game involving the Saints and the Colts does not mean that I will refuse or lessen another 'under' opportunity to be played. Many 'players' get angry when a team 'screws them' and they then toss them aside as a team that they will never take a risk with ever again.

Well John, I actually heard that from you once before early on this season and thats what gave me the courage keep on sticking to the game plan. Most of my plays now are better for the simple reason that I've learn how to bet on the underdog when it really makes sense. The way I see if everyone bets on the favored team and win all the time then the books will be out of business and you know the house doesn't lose all the time.

Thanx

[PickMeAwinner]

John, do you have a play for tonight?

I do like miami but I think -14 is a lot, 1 thing I noticed is that teams playing at home on a short with a not so explosive offense are pretty good. Example Pitts, this year has already played on thur vs S.Fla and just killed it 44-17, and last night against UCONN covering a 10 pts spread 35-20. West Virginia getting upset as a 14 favored to Syracuse at home. Is there a trend perhaps? If thats the case Miami -14 + OVER would be the correct play?

[Greyraptor]

John, do you have a play for tonight?

I do like miami but I think -14 is a lot, 1 thing I noticed is that teams playing at home on a short with a not so explosive offense are pretty good. Example Pitts, this year has already played on thur vs S.Fla and just killed it 44-17, and last night against UCONN covering a 10 pts spread 35-20. West Virginia getting upset as a 14 favored to Syracuse at home. Is there a trend perhaps? If thats the case Miami -14 + OVER would be the correct play?

I don't know about the over/under in that game PickMe but I would def go with Miami -14 for not just the reasons you just mentioned. I think Miami has a big advantage over Virginia with team speed. Also look at games vs. common opponents: Georgia Tech - Miami beat them by 17 while UVA beat them by only 3; UNC - Miami beat them by 6 while UVA lost to them by 11. Both schools played AT UNC and had GA Tech at their stadium.

[BeardedTaco]

Virginia +14