I was thinking. Every year in the NFL there are a few to several teams that really surprise us in terms of how good or how bad they are. Suppose you feel really good about a couple such teams that you have unusual projections for. Is there money to be made early in the season betting on those games? Or does history tell us that the lines at the beginning of the season are every bit as sharp as the end? This question surely already has an answer, and I just don't know it.
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The lines are sharp week 1 based on perception. If you think you have an edge make the most of it because it won't last. Usually 4-6 teams surprise every season, but sharps think it won't be as significant this year due to the lockout. Many believe it will be the year of the haves and the have nots. How is that reflected in the line? We'll find out in weeks 2-4.Comment -
But can one analyze data from years past to prove that the books lines are off more towards the beginning of the season vs. towards the end? Or is there any difference?Comment -
One could make the case that lines are more off at the beginning of the year, especially in week 1. Lines on the favorites are consistently shaded against teams that were really bad the year before.
But one could argue that lines are just as beatable later in the year too as books overadjust. Either way, there will always be value as long as the public perceive things wrong.Comment -
books are just guessing the first 2 weeksComment
