Discussing Betting NFL and College Football Futures and Win Totals with Justin7

SBR_John · 08-22-11, 11:57 PM

forloveofthegame · 08-23-11, 12:36 AM

good vid.. would like to know what site he uses for his stats info

Sunde91 · 08-23-11, 12:41 AM

I guess last season's yardage/points are used more in NFL? Don't see that as at all useful in College if a team loses half it's starters.

Schedule and returning starters are what's important in college. Find GOY year lines or project a spread and convert to win prob for each game.

daimoshokage · 08-23-11, 12:49 AM

Great vid.. Justin7

Scorpion · 08-23-11, 01:33 AM

stl to win the nfc west +230

sweethook · 08-23-11, 02:02 AM

nice justin , they are just fun bets i guess . gl

TrajaD · 08-23-11, 11:26 AM

Money money money

Justin7 · 08-23-11, 11:34 AM

Here are some of the futures I have.

Arizona under 6.5 +157
Buffalo over 5 -164
Chicago over 8.5 +145
Cincy over 5.5 -110
Dallas under 9 -127
Green Bay under 11.5 -141
Jacksonville over 6 -158
Minnesota over 7 -105
New York Giants under 9.5 -165
St. Louis under 7.5 -123

lakerboy · 08-23-11, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Here are some of the futures I have.

Arizona under 6.5 +157 now +175
Buffalo over 5 -164 now -183
Chicago over 8.5 +145 now same
Cincy over 5.5 -110 now+121
Dallas under 9 -127 now -139
Green Bay under 11.5 -141 now -161
Jacksonville over 6 -158 now -182
Minnesota over 7 -105 now -108
New York Giants under 9.5 -165 now -175
St. Louis under 7.5 -123 now -122

lets see how it goes. you look good so far

a4u2fear · 08-23-11, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Here are some of the futures I have.

Arizona under 6.5 +157
Buffalo over 5 -164
Chicago over 8.5 +145
Cincy over 5.5 -110
Dallas under 9 -127
Green Bay under 11.5 -141
Jacksonville over 6 -158
Minnesota over 7 -105
New York Giants under 9.5 -165
St. Louis under 7.5 -123

Buffalo looked good until lee Evans was traded. Their second wr has since been injured and the offense has looked poor

Sunde91 · 08-23-11, 10:40 PM

Cincy won 4 games last year with a veteran QB. Now they have to win 6 with a rookie who was a B-rated QB in College and looks awful in preseason. And you layed -110. Was that a model play?

lakerboy · 08-23-11, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

Cincy won 4 games last year with a veteran QB. Now they have to win 6 with a rookie who was a B-rated QB in College and looks awful in preseason. And you layed -110. Was that a model play?

They seem to have a pretty easy schedule. I see it happening.

SpreadSniper · 08-24-11, 01:58 AM

there isnt a chance in hell this Cincy team wins MORE than 6 games... so the under is a safe bet imho.

DIRTYDOG · 08-24-11, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

Cincy won 4 games last year with a veteran QB. Now they have to win 6 with a rookie who was a B-rated QB in College and looks awful in preseason. And you layed -110. Was that a model play?

Making a play on Cincy is obviously a "Value Play" with regard to the opening number of 7 dropping down to 5.5. The opener of 7 was in essence to high to begin with in my opinion.

However, a glance backwards in time shows that although Cincy posted an overall mark of 4-12 when the season was concluded, they had lost a total of five games by 6 or less points.

Cincy QB Carson Palmer won't be under center for the Bengals this season, however, its not like Palmer has been playing like an all star over the past few year either. Final stats from last season shows that Palmers TD to INT ratio was 26 to 20 and his overall QB ranking last year was 19th versus all other QBs.

In other words, if Cincy can improve on their T/O margin from last year which was -8, and if Cincy can get marginal play at the QB position, then they could reasonably get to six wins.

Take care and be well my friends

Jim

patswin · 08-24-11, 06:57 AM

will have to watch when i get home tonight

HauntingTheHoly · 08-27-11, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Here are some of the futures I have.

Arizona under 6.5 +157
Buffalo over 5 -164
Chicago over 8.5 +145
Cincy over 5.5 -110
Dallas under 9 -127
Green Bay under 11.5 -141
Jacksonville over 6 -158
Minnesota over 7 -105
New York Giants under 9.5 -165
St. Louis under 7.5 -123

How much are half-games worth? I got a book with Buffalo OVER 5.5 for -115 and and Jacksonofabitchville OVER 6.5 for EVEN.

And if I told you were to get Cincy over 5.5 for +125, how hard would you pound it? Significantly better price than your minus 110, no?

Richkas · 08-27-11, 09:03 PM

andy888 · 08-31-11, 06:15 AM

u got a good idea ( sbobet - ibcbet are my favorite for NFL adn Soccer betting )

griz · 08-31-11, 06:48 AM

good video

Richkas · 08-31-11, 08:56 AM

BigdaddyQH · 08-31-11, 09:24 AM

I would not touch Cinci either way.

Richkas · 08-31-11, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Here are some of the futures I have.

Arizona under 6.5 +157
Buffalo over 5 -164
Chicago over 8.5 +145
Cincy over 5.5 -110
Dallas under 9 -127
Green Bay under 11.5 -141
Jacksonville over 6 -158
Minnesota over 7 -105
New York Giants under 9.5 -165
St. Louis under 7.5 -123

Stlouis wins 10 games this year.....they will win week one at home against Philly