sorry buddy. always enjoyed your thread and took them into consideration. I tailed on TT o29.5. Well, I hope you bounce back...bol
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Just variance - You can't win 'em all. Good luck to you Donk, and I hope you'll stick around.Comment -
Season Records
NCAAF YTD: 68-47-1 +$2,647.50
DONK Plays: 10-4+$1,519
NFL YTD: 36-37-2 -$2,439
DONK PLAYS: 10-13-2 -$2,681
OVERALL YTD: 104-84-3+$208.50
DONK OVERALL: 20-17-2 -$1,162
NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)Comment -
Well.. There goes that. A horrible weekend and we've erased a ton of profit from the start of the season.. In all honesty, this is one of the worst runs of my life in betting football, if not the worst. And to make it harder is the way I'm losing the games. Way too many close heartbreaking losses. I've always felt that when I lose, it always seems to be in sicker ways than most people, and the lucky wins almost never roll my way. This bad run has documented that. I'm not going to key on Jermichael Finley's dropped touchdown that is caught 99 times out of 100 that single-handedly lost the team total, but I'm keying on the interception at the end of the game.. So many times I've taken a sick beat on a similar play where the win looked locked up (Like GT last week, giving up 2 TDs in the last 34 seconds up 24 points on a fumble when they just had to kneel which blew the cover) and everyone says "Oh, the breaks even out!" No. They f*cking DON'T. When that ball was picked and I saw that moron start to run it back my heart jumped, when I saw him get the sideline.. I thought for ONCE this could be it.. This one "good beat" could make up for some of the sick beats I've taken in the past couple weeks.. Then I see him slow down, cut towards the middle of the field, only to have a couple WRs pointlessly track him down and take him out when most wouldn't even bother to run back down field. And that was it. It's not in my head.. Who was I kidding, that had no chance. Only if I were on the other side would that ball have been taken to the house, and that's the truth.
I have a bad mentality right now and I'm just not producing like I know I can. This week, I made bets that weren't in line with my handicapping and game selection of 2 games and it cost me 14 units. There's no excuse for that. For tonight's game, my roommate owes me a nice chunk of change, and if he wants to take the Bears, I'm gonna bet it all on the Lions, probably ML.. Other than that, probably no plays.
On that note, I will be stepping away for at least short while. This week I have 4 exams and an interview- busier than finals week. Life outside of this thread hasn't been too great or easygoing lately either and it's affecting many aspects of my life negatively, including how I invest in these games. The right thing to do here is take a breather. The season tally is up 2 units overall, which is a joke, but up 34 units in this thread thanks to NFLX, and I have no intentions of having a losing season. If I can't turn it around soon, I may walk away for good this year and stop loss. This week I am going to try to not even think about football and focus on my other stuff. When the weekend comes around maybe I can dive into the games with a clear head and think about making a play or two, but no guarantees. I knew a bad run would follow the unfathomable start I was off to, but never expected this. Sorry to those who took a hit with me, and good luck to everyone for the rest of the season.Comment -
And thanks to all of those offering support and appreciation. I know bad runs happen and this is a grind, but this one is just over the top and I need to clear my head before I can come back focused and ready to get back to the winning ways. GL.Comment -
Good luck, Donk. As another student capper, I can relate to the toughness of balancing school, capping and other aspects of college life. Here's to you coming back stronger than ever.Comment -
Take some time and come back rejuvenated. I know exactly how you feel. Watching Green Bay move the ball at will and then settle for FG after FG, not to mention Jermichael's drop. The good thing is that we're now 5 weeks into the NFL season, and we know which teams are emerging as the contenders. The front-runners have to be Green Bay and New England. Amazingly, Detroit and Buffalo look like playoff teams (so far). San Francisco will prob win the NFC West. Dallas could make a run if Romo quits giving games away. San Diego, Baltimore, and maybe Oakland seem to be the only other teams with any consistency. Houston, maybe once Andre Johnson gets back....
Hope to see you back on here soon! My only wager for this upcoming week will likely be a two-team 7-point teaser:
LSU -9
Boise St. -24 I hate to take two road favorites, but there aren't many teams we can rely on in college at this point....two national title contenders seems like a good way to go out, if I'm going to lose. Might go all-in on that & then wait for the Donk return...still lots of time to turn this thing around. Hang in there, man.Comment -
I actually love DET TT Over tonight.. Might give it one last hurrah.. Thing is, it was just 27 (+105) and now it's 27.5 +100.. I want 26.5.. Could have had 26.5 (-105) but the lines are fixed until a couple hours before game time.. Should be around 28 -110 by the time kickoff nears.. Frustrating. At 26.5 I was thinking DONK 4*.. Now we'll have to wait and see.Comment -
Okay, one last go..
NFL Monday, October 10th:
DONK 4* Lions TT Over 26 (-125)
Lions first home game on MNF in a decade.. Awesome offense.. Athletic receivers that match up well vs. this Bears pass D that has been less than flattering.. I like Best out of the backfield to make a few big plays off screens.. Lions defense should get to Cutler, force a big mistake or two and give us a short field.. Lions don't wanna play comeback again, they should be looking to get off to a quick start and make a statement that they're for real.. Showcase Megatron, etc.. Pettigrew is solid and I love Titus Young (Love most Boise boys..) Bears should struggle to run, so Cutler passing means more mistakes, slower clock with stoppages, etc.. The NFL is becoming an offensive and a passing league, overs have been killing.
I like the Lions in this one.. ML and spread. I like the over, and a Lions and over tease.. All those plays depend on this one, so here it is. Was considering Over 24, but it's -155 which is really juicy even when playing not to lose.. If I was hot up a lot more units like I was before this bad run, Over 30 +148 looks delicious, and Over 30.5 +160 as well..
Hoping the Lions come out and put on a show to help get me back on track. BOL, guys.Comment -
Was with you all the way the last couple of days...It happens, but I still would put you on the top list of cappers on this site. Every play is posted and counted, not like some guys that go 10-0 and never post.
Tonight I'm with you again, and win or lose have a good week bro! Good Luck with that interview
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Donk,
Even if you're taking it a little easy, I'd enjoy it if you'd still post some thoughts. I respect your point of view and look forward to seeing your picks every week.
One thing that I have done successfully lately is tease the picks. Just think about how many times you've lost by 2 points in the last 30 seconds. They don't pay as well, but if they were teased they'd be winners.
One of the podcasts I listen to quoted that if you blindly picked either team and over/under for each monday night game and teased them each side of the teaser would be 16-3-1 so far this season (including both games in week 1). Lines in the NFL are really good, a lot of them are within 6 points. I've taken the over of 3 games and teased them 10 points a few times now. It's like taking candy from a baby. If you get a line under 40 teased by 10 you have a built-in 25% margin of error on the line.
On a much more important note - good luck in your interview. Do you mind sharing what type of position you're interviewing for?Comment -
Handle your business, focus on school, ace your interview and come back stronger! Keep ya head up! BOL.Comment -
We stand behind you DW. You are a solid capper buddy.
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Damn, this sucks. Another loser. I'm out. Sick part is I told my bro I was so close to waiting on the 1H and hitting Lions over 2nd half.. I just didn't want to miss an opportunity if they had a good 1st half so I played full game and it cost me. Stafford missed Burleson WIDE OPEN for an easy TD that woulda given the Lions 14 with 6 minutes left in the half.. Coulda had a good shot to post 17+. Frustrating and just unfortunate. Oh well. It happens.
As for the interview, it's not for a job, it's for a class. I have one every Tuesday. It's a simulated interview with a business professional. 2 weeks ago I interviewed and hired an employee. Last week I negotiated a lease with a real estate agent. Haven't checked what I'm doing this week.. Thanks for the support guys. I'll try not to be a stranger, but I just can't keep with this right now. Gotta regroup.
(FWIW, If you could get Detroit 2H TT Over 13... You know what to do!
)
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Michigan State -2.5 I didn't tail you at all but don't leave. I had a rough time to for 2 weeks. GLComment -
0-1 -$500.Okay, one last go..
NFL Monday, October 10th:
DONK 4* Lions TT Over 26 (-125) LOSS
-Was considering Over 24, but it's -155 which is really juicy even when playing not to lose..
-Damn, this sucks. Another loser. I'm out. Sick part is I told my bro I was so close to waiting on the 1H and hitting Lions over 2nd half.. I just didn't want to miss an opportunity if they had a good 1st half so I played full game and it cost me. Stafford missed Burleson WIDE OPEN for an easy TD that woulda WON IT FOR US..
(FWIW, If you could get Detroit 2H TT Over 13... You know what to do!
) (winner)
Lions spread wins in Titans-Rams Super Bowl style, only because I passed that for the team total.. Definite loss if that was my bet.. Was gonna play not to lose with 24, I go 26, obviously it lands on 24.. Wouldn't happen any other way. This is driving me insane, not from just a sports investing stand point, it's bringing my life down on a daily basis. Can't do this. Sorry guys.Comment -
Season Records
NCAAF YTD: 68-47-1 +$2,647.50
DONK Plays: 10-4+$1,519
NFL YTD: 36-38-2 -$2,939
DONK PLAYS: 10-14-2 -$3,181
OVERALL YTD: 104-85-3-$291.50
DONK OVERALL: 20-18-2 -$1,662
NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)Comment -
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take it easy, I know harder said than done, but handle your biz, come back and adjust your plan of attack---BOL, thanks for posting, and your time.
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Good luck Donk Hope you bounce back bro!Comment -
Donk if you include all plays you're still up.Comment -
Thanks for all the effort you put into this thread. Good luck and take a well deserved break.Comment -
Thank for what you have done in this thread Donk. Just take a break and come back stronger than ever
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Thanks for posting DONK. hope to see you back when you are ready. In the meantime just do well in school. ^_^DO WORK + KROW OD
do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
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Donk,
I'm an old fart (52 yrs old) compared to most on this site. I haven't posted much, but I've enjoyed your picks and commentary, made some money, lost some money. You seem like a pretty good guy. What's important now is that you concentrate on what is most important - your schooling. We've all given capping a shot on our own and now we look on this site for help because we've experienced just how difficult it is. You have a talent most don't have. The gambling gods have just decided it's time to smack you down a bit. Give it some time, focus on school, come back renewed and refreshed, and make us some more money DAMNIT! BOL Donk!Comment -
Hey donk take a break from all forms of betting for a while. It is good to exercise control so that gambling does not consume you and your finances.Comment -
im in the same boat as you homie. i am not a fan of distractions so do what you have to do and return when you feel ready.. in the mean time sit back, down a few beers, and cheer on the hawks!!! i ******* hate northwestern!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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hey donkwin, anything tonight?Comment -
USC -3 anyone?Comment -
enjoyed your analysis too.... and no bs records. hope u have better luck in future...Comment -
Very hard to pass yesterday.. I liked Clemson spread/TT Over, Oregon, LSU, Florida, and Michigan State. Woulda been a solid day.. Today I like the Saints, Eagles, Bills TT Over, and NE/NYG Over.. Didn't play anything yesterday and haven't played anything today.. Take it for what it's worth (even if you wanna fade..) GL.Comment -
Okay.. Passing yesterday was hard and the games I would have played did well. Today the plays I like and posted are all looking great early.. Just put this in small.. Might play the Saints as my 1 top play of the day. GL.
NFL Sunday, October 16th:
1* Bills 2H +3 (-135)Comment -
Add:
DONK 3* Saints -6 (-117)
Was loving it at -4 way early but that was in the middle of my week off.. Hope I don't regret waiting too long.Comment
