***Donkwin47's 2011 FOOTBALL Season Thread***

[Donkwin47]

Preseason Plays:

24-6 +$2,724

Leans: 9-3-1

Through 30 plays, we stand at a level 80%, up over 27 units in 2 weeks worth of action. So glad I decided to play and post NFL this preseason!

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Sunday, August 21st:

1.5* 2-team, 5 point teaser: Jets -2.5 + Giants +0.5 (+107) (FROM LAST NIGHT)
1.5* NYG/CHI 1H Under 20 (-140)
1* Giants 1H ML -185
1* Giants -3 (-150)

Leans: Bears TT Under 15.5, NYG/CHI Under 35.5.

Today is the 1st day of classes for me back at college. Always makes it easier knowing there's MNF tonight .. Wanted to get the post up so I wouldn't have to worry about it throughout the day.

For the superstitious folk, let it be known that I just got a big check today, cashed out half my roll.. So, those who believe in the "cashout curse", beware. I am not superstitious and don't believe in jinxes or curses, but I know that cash outs usually come after a big run, which is an extended stretch of variance (A la my 24-6, 80% run) and those are usually followed by downswings, as that level of killing the books cannot be retained over the long haul. I have warned and will warn again.. A downswing is coming, that's a guarantee. Dunno when or how big, but it will happen. Great runs happen, but they all end, so stay disciplined, and don't bet over your head.

Best of luck, guys, let's hope tonight is not the night that gambling gravity knocks up off our feet.

[Donkwin47]

Welp, there was the first pretty bad beat. Total sitting at 19 with less than a minute, I'm looking like a genius for playing the under 20 with 4 FGs keeping it just under, less than 1 minute on the clock and the Bears punting near midfield with a great opportunity to pin the Giants who would most likely kneel and take it to half as a 13-6 ball game, putting us in great position for another 4-0 night, theeeennnnnnnnnnnnnnn that. Blocked punt taken back and converted to a Giants TD to put it over.

Sucked, but that's what we sign up for when we chose to wager on sports. At least it was a Giants TD and they are up 20-6, dominating the game and looking golden. I could settle for 3-1, let's hope we get it. Still a full half of football to play. GL, guys.

[Donkwin47]

Adding:

1* NYG/CHI 2H Under 17 (-130)

BOL.

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Sunday, August 21st:

1.5* 2-team, 5 point teaser: Jets -2.5 + Giants +0.5 (+107) (FROM LAST NIGHT) WIN
1.5* NYG/CHI 1H Under 20 (-140) LOSS
1* Giants 1H ML -185WIN
1* Giants -3 (-150)WIN
1* NYG/CHI 2H Under 17 (-130) LOSS

3-2. +$20.50. Bears defense was absolutely embarrassing. Screwed on both totals in the final minutes while the clock was set to run out.

[Donkwin47]

Preseason Plays:

27-8 +$2,756

Leans: 10-4-1

[shopbar picks]

impressive stuff. GL through the rest of the season. And if classes get in the road of your capping. Remember you can always retake the class

[Tom Jane]

I had those unders, too. Glad to know I wasn't the only one, and looking through your history, I'll probably be tailing you this year. Damn solid picks through NFLX!

[Donkwin47]

Thank you very much for the points, Fataliz!

impressive stuff. GL through the rest of the season. And if classes get in the road of your capping. Remember you can always retake the class

Haha good stuff, I like that. No worries, though.. I do well in school with no effort whatsoever.

I had those unders, too. Glad to know I wasn't the only one, and looking through your history, I'll probably be tailing you this year. Damn solid picks through NFLX!

Yup, that kinda stuff happens, though. Thanks for the kind words and best of luck this upcoming football season!

[LOL]

GL man!

[Donkwin47]

GL man!

Appreciate the well wishes. BOL to you as well!

[odog11]

Good work, who new the Bears D would not show up! I took Giants first half ML and -4 at -120. Lets get em this week.

[Donkwin47]

Good work, who new the Bears D would not show up! I took Giants first half ML and -4 at -120. Lets get em this week.

Glad to hear you cashed. Back at it tomorrow!

[Donkwin47]

2011 NCAAF Futures Play

DONK 4* Notre Dame Under 9 Wins (-150)


I know I said I don't usually play futures, but this one was brought to my attention by a capper I respect and I looked at it and really like it. Plus, with this run I'm on in the preseason and the cash I've built up so far, I can afford to put some funds on layaway, and am not too worried about liquidity. The way I see it, the wager is no longer part of my effective bankroll, and If I win this wager, I will just get a nice $1k bonus at the end of the season.

Put this in yesterday morning but have been busy with class.. In between classes now, so just giving some quick thoughts on the matter. Notre Dame plays a 12 game schedule (Bowl game not included in this prop) that includes Michigan, MSU, Pitt, USC, and Stanford. All very losable games in my opinion. Outside of those games, they will face South Florida, Air Force, Navy, Maryland and BC which are no walkovers (Although Purdue and Maryland probably are). I would not be shocked if ND dropped week 1 to South Florida. I'm not expecting it by any means, but I would not be shocked.

As most of you know, ND named Dayne Crist their starting QB. He Began last year as the starter, but got injured with 4 games remaining. He also sufferred an injury as a freshman. So, we have an injury prone QB who is still not fully adept to Kelly's spread offense, and may be prone to mistakes, not to mention another injury. I like that angle.

Michigan, MSU, and Pitt follow week 1, all this early in the year with Crist just getting back into the swing of things. How awesome would a 2-2 start be? ND would have to win out for this bet to lose, and I LOVE Stanford at home against ND in ND's last game of the season. If ND lost any other game by then, I'd be freerolling at a push on the Stanfor ML (Will be at least 2-1 favorites, and I think even that would have value.)

Finally, I like the fact that Notre Dame is Notre Dame. A national team with many fans. Teams like them (Yankees, Lakers, Duke, etc.) are generally overvalued all the time. Plus, we'll be able to see them lose random games on NBC .

Under 8.5 is available at +money (was +150 but line has dropped, maybe around +130 now). Obviously I like that, but I really like Under 9 just because it's a bet against a 10-2 season or better. I can't see that happening. BOL, guys.

[odog11]

Have some money to lay away myself and going with you on the Notre Dame under 9 for a smallish wager, will make watching all those ND games more interesting and I like our chances.

[PUDS]

[quote=Donkwin47;11153984]2011 NCAAF Futures Play

DONK 4* Notre Dame Under 9 Wins (-150)

Like that play a lot ! thank's for pointing it out. My bankroll kinda low right now (newbie) so i will put only 2 unit
got them at -139 on SI

Thank's for sharing !

[Donkwin47]

Have some money to lay away myself and going with you on the Notre Dame under 9 for a smallish wager, will make watching all those ND games more interesting and I like our chances.

Like that play a lot ! thank's for pointing it out. My bankroll kinda low right now (newbie) so i will put only 2 unit
got them at -139 on SI

Thank's for sharing !

Thanks, guys. Best of luck. Should be fun hoping for random ND losses all year! Let's cash!

[Donkwin47]

Not really in love with this card tonight. Bengals-Panthers seems too painful to even watch.. For now, I Lean Washington +4.. Missed out on the 4.5. Might make a play closer to gametime...

Sorry guys, not gonna force anything. I'll post if something comes up.

[fataliz]

i like. no bet better than forced bet. cheers

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Thursday, August 25th:

1* Bengals/Panthers Under 33.5 (-105)
0.5* Panthers TT Under 15.5
0.5* Bengals TT Under 18

Leans: Redskins +4, Panthers +3

Sorry for the late post, just got home. Decided to roll with the under since these teams just suck on offense and Bengals D is actually solid IMO. I understand not many will see this, so more for tracking purposes, but if you can get down, GL.

Depending where the line goes in the BAL/WAS game, might make a play there.. Nothing for CLE/PHI. GL guys.

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Thursday, August 25th:

1* Bengals/Panthers Under 33.5 (-105) LOSS
0.5* Panthers TT Under 15.5 WIN
0.5* Bengals TT Under 18 LOSS

1-2 -$110.. Losing night for the first time in a long time and it was only 1 unit. Should have rolled with my first lean (Redskins) and not added the late plays last second. Oh well. Back at 'em tonight.

[Donkwin47]

Preseason Plays:

28-10 +$2,646

Leans: 11-5-1

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Friday, August 26th:

1* Packers 1H ML -300


This will probably be it. BOL, guys.

[a4u2fear]

NFL Preseason Friday, August 26th: 1* Packers 1H ML -300 This will probably be it. BOL, guys.

GL but lots of juice for preseason. I took GB o14 1st half.

[Donkwin47]

GL but lots of juice for preseason. I took GB o14 1st half.

I like GB to score.. That would have been my bet if I could have gotten 12.5 or 13, but it was 14. Regardless, I don't see the Colts scoring more than that in the 1st half, and there's always the chance that the Colts get completely shut down. I have no problem laying juice If I think it's a +EV investment. Even if it ends up losing, I don't see the Packers trailing at halftime more than 75% of the time. Wouldn't be shocked to see something like 17-3 at halftime tonight. BOL.

[fataliz]

wow....

[Donkwin47]

wow....

Words cannot describe how frustrated I am after what just happenned.

A Packers TD called back on penalty, followed by a missed field goal, and a 2 minute drill to score a 2nd Colts TD in less than 5 minutes by a QB who leads a TD drive about as often as Jesus Christ resurrects? Unbelievable.

[Donkwin47]

nfl preseason friday, august 26th:

1* packers 1h ml -300 loss

0-1 -$300.

[fataliz]

shit happens. don't let that get to you. cool down for your next picks. am a supporter

[Donkwin47]

Preseason Plays:

28-11 +$2,346

Leans: 11-5-1

[Donkwin47]

shit happens. don't let that get to you. cool down for your next picks. am a supporter

Thanks, man. Appreciate that. GL in the future.

[a4u2fear]

Brutal, but, ughhh

[Donkwin47]

NFL Preseason Saturday, August 27th:

2* NE/DET 1H Over 22.5 (-140)

Lean: Lions +3.5, NE/DET Over 44.5

I like the Lions to be competitive in this one and I think there will be points scored.. I want all of Tom Brady and the Patriots 1st team offense, and I think we can get this 1H over rather easily. BOL, guys.

[fataliz]

ty sir. we've got it now. phew. was still sweating over Brady....

[Donkwin47]

nfl preseason saturday, august 27th:

2* ne/det 1h over 22.5 (-140) win

1-0 +$200.