Fading The Public - NFL Preseason Edition

[bostonbruins]

Here we go , all plays 1u


BAL/PHI Over 34 (-110)
JAX +4 (-117)
NE/JAX Under 35 (-110)
SEA/SD Over 35 (-110)



Record: 0-0-0

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

good luck

[Streamline]

fading the public but getting -117?!?!

[GunShard]

Interesting.

But I prefer fading the public during the regular season.

[odog11]

fading the public but getting -117?!?!

It was 3 1/2 and moved to 4, still 3 1/2 at some places and people are on Pats at that # I do believe. I was thinking of it myself actually as Jacksonville is leaving a lot people at home. May just play some points on it

[DrSize]

Where are you getting your public % from? I am showing 57% of bets on the SEA Over from one of the best paid line services. Also none of those plays are over 60%....66% are on the Over in the Ari game...62% are on the Under in the Dal game...and 60% are on Balt. Those are the only 3 games with over 60%

[bostonbruins]

numbers from Sports.com, sportsbook.com.

[DrSize]

My numbers went 2-1. From your numbers it went 1-3. I'm not playing this but for fun I'll keep track of fading the public. Games that qualify will be 60% or greater on one side of the spread or total.

I would be careful what service you are using for watching % of bets placed. All the free sites use their numbers from contests etc and if you are using a sports books numbers it only includes their numbers which could be way off from the general consensus if it is a very public book vs a very sharp book. The only two line services I would trust are Don Best and Sports Options and they both include numerous books including all the big ones.

[bostonbruins]

I like to think sportsbook.com users aren't very sharp and seem to follow the crowd in certain sports and situations. I understand what your saying though , theres no way to know what the percentages there mean without number of bets placed , etc. Just curious to see how it plays out for preseason



Record: 1-3-0 -2.09u

SF +2 (-105)
SF/NO Under 35.5 (-110)
CIN/DET Over 34.5 (-110)
PIT/WAS Over 33 (-110)
TB/KC Under 32.5 (-110)

[bostonbruins]

Record: 4-5-0 -1.36u

[hitman09]

This method of betting should have done better in regular season, not the preseason. I prefer we looking for the team that lost the first game, play second game to kick a win, or the third game to grab it.

[bostonbruins]

Record: 4-5-0 -1.36u

CAR -1.5 (-125)
TEN -3 (-110)
BUF +2.5 (-110)
TEN/MIN Under 32.5 (-110)
NYG/CAR Under 33 (-117)
IND/STL Under 34 (-117)

[bostonbruins]

Record: 8-7-0 +0.11u

[bostonbruins]

NYJ/HOU Under 35 (-125)

[Tully Mars 63]

This pre is all messed up due to the timeline, think you've done pretty well considering. And I think you're right on the o/u tonight.

But I'm not touching anything until reg kicks in, maybe 2nd/3rd game.

[bostonbruins]

Record: 8-8-0 -0.89u


NE/TB Under 37 (-110)
TB -1 (-110)

[bostonbruins]

Record: 8-10-0 -2.89u

WAS/IND Under 35.5 (-110)
DET/CLE Under 38 (-110)
CAR/MIA Under 34.5 (-110)
ARZ/GB Under 39 (-110)
ATL/JAX Under 36.5 (-110)
IND +5 (-115)
MIA -6 (-110)

[Tully Mars 63]

Hope you have better luck tonight.

[Tully Mars 63]

Little better.

[Tully Mars 63]

No updates?