This will be a totally different preseason for every NFL head coach old and new alike. Usually head coaches will come into camp after a ton of OTA's and team meetings under their belt, and having a good idea which players will fill the majority of his 53 man roster.
NOT THIS SEASON!!!
With only around 10 days to prepare for their first preseason game the majority of the coaches I have heard from are saying " they are not getting a good feeling putting their top players on the field at all in this short a period of time to prepare". Saying this we have to take a step back and see how these teams approach these opening preseason games.
It is extremely important this season to gather as much information and listen to every video clip that the head coaches make available. As this is where you will get that huge edge over the odds makers and betting public.
I will be monitoring this closely and will release anything I come across that gives us a winning edge.
However I also feel once the preseason progresses things may return to some sort of familiarity for the teams and coaches, and I have listed my top 10 Preseason trends to keep an eye out for this year. My insight is listed here below:
Top 10 NFL Preseason Trend Analysis Thru the Years
1) Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 2-15 against the spread over the past 4 years. I definitely look for more of the same this year especially in these early games after reading this quote from head coach Todd Haley " I don’t know if we want to shoot all our guns in the first team talk because we don’t have everybody.” He added about his veterans, “It was a skeleton crew, it didn’t feel like training camp.”
2) Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis never cared about winning in the preseason with Tony Dungy as head coach. Well things have sure continued with Caldwell leading the troops as the Colts have gone 5-12 against the spread over the past 4 seasons while losing their preseason opener in this span. Plus throw in the fact that with Manning recovering from his second neck surgery, the Colts offense this preseason will be lead by Curtis Painter - A scary thought.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers - This is one of my strongest preseason trends to watch for as the Steelers have seen the Under go an amazing 17-4 over the past 5 years in the preseason. With all the uncertainty coming into this years preseason I definitely can see this trend continuing.
4) Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last 7 years the Falcons have gone a perfect 7-0 outscoring their opposition 164-75. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 27th when they play Pittsburgh on the road.
5) Philadelphia Eagles - Another one of my favorite preseason plays is on the Eagles as Andy Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-7 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since 2003. The Eagles open up this year against Baltimore at home on August 11th.
6) Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens in the past 6 preseason’s have played some really low scoring games with the under going a money making 17-6. This trend has continued with new head coach John Harbaugh playing it close to the vest as the Ravens have watched the under go 9-3 in his first 3 years has head coach.
7) Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open game plan over the past 5 years that has seen the Over go an impressive 15-5 in the preseason. After winning the Super Bowl I can definitely see this trend playing out again this year as the Green Bay's intensity level can't be that high coming into camp.
8) Chicago/Cleveland - One scenario I always look forward to in the preseason is when the Bears and Browns match-up in their finale preseason game. This has occurred the past 8 years with the Under going an amazing 7-1. Both organizations just want to get through this game and run run run the ball all game long. This years game will take place on Thursday September 1st in Chicago.
9) San Diego Chargers - This will be Norv Turner’s 5th year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 04 and 05 a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his dress rehearsal game the first 4 years in San Diego making him now a perfect 0-6 ATS. This years dress rehearsal game for the Chargers will be at Arizona on Saturday August 27th.
10) Jacksonville Jaguars - While it looks like all these early preseason games may just be low scoring, and nothing more than scrimmages. We might have a huge edge here as Jack Del Rio has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game as the Jaguars has seen the Over be a perfect 5-0 in their opener since 2006. This year Jacksonville pays a visit to New England on Thursday August 11th to start off the preseason.
I hope all have a great season,
Tony Stoffo
NOT THIS SEASON!!!
With only around 10 days to prepare for their first preseason game the majority of the coaches I have heard from are saying " they are not getting a good feeling putting their top players on the field at all in this short a period of time to prepare". Saying this we have to take a step back and see how these teams approach these opening preseason games.
It is extremely important this season to gather as much information and listen to every video clip that the head coaches make available. As this is where you will get that huge edge over the odds makers and betting public.
I will be monitoring this closely and will release anything I come across that gives us a winning edge.
However I also feel once the preseason progresses things may return to some sort of familiarity for the teams and coaches, and I have listed my top 10 Preseason trends to keep an eye out for this year. My insight is listed here below:
Top 10 NFL Preseason Trend Analysis Thru the Years
1) Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 2-15 against the spread over the past 4 years. I definitely look for more of the same this year especially in these early games after reading this quote from head coach Todd Haley " I don’t know if we want to shoot all our guns in the first team talk because we don’t have everybody.” He added about his veterans, “It was a skeleton crew, it didn’t feel like training camp.”
2) Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis never cared about winning in the preseason with Tony Dungy as head coach. Well things have sure continued with Caldwell leading the troops as the Colts have gone 5-12 against the spread over the past 4 seasons while losing their preseason opener in this span. Plus throw in the fact that with Manning recovering from his second neck surgery, the Colts offense this preseason will be lead by Curtis Painter - A scary thought.
3) Pittsburgh Steelers - This is one of my strongest preseason trends to watch for as the Steelers have seen the Under go an amazing 17-4 over the past 5 years in the preseason. With all the uncertainty coming into this years preseason I definitely can see this trend continuing.
4) Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last 7 years the Falcons have gone a perfect 7-0 outscoring their opposition 164-75. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 27th when they play Pittsburgh on the road.
5) Philadelphia Eagles - Another one of my favorite preseason plays is on the Eagles as Andy Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-7 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since 2003. The Eagles open up this year against Baltimore at home on August 11th.
6) Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens in the past 6 preseason’s have played some really low scoring games with the under going a money making 17-6. This trend has continued with new head coach John Harbaugh playing it close to the vest as the Ravens have watched the under go 9-3 in his first 3 years has head coach.
7) Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open game plan over the past 5 years that has seen the Over go an impressive 15-5 in the preseason. After winning the Super Bowl I can definitely see this trend playing out again this year as the Green Bay's intensity level can't be that high coming into camp.
8) Chicago/Cleveland - One scenario I always look forward to in the preseason is when the Bears and Browns match-up in their finale preseason game. This has occurred the past 8 years with the Under going an amazing 7-1. Both organizations just want to get through this game and run run run the ball all game long. This years game will take place on Thursday September 1st in Chicago.
9) San Diego Chargers - This will be Norv Turner’s 5th year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 04 and 05 a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his dress rehearsal game the first 4 years in San Diego making him now a perfect 0-6 ATS. This years dress rehearsal game for the Chargers will be at Arizona on Saturday August 27th.
10) Jacksonville Jaguars - While it looks like all these early preseason games may just be low scoring, and nothing more than scrimmages. We might have a huge edge here as Jack Del Rio has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game as the Jaguars has seen the Over be a perfect 5-0 in their opener since 2006. This year Jacksonville pays a visit to New England on Thursday August 11th to start off the preseason.
I hope all have a great season,
Tony Stoffo
